The switch has flipped today?

[al78]

Yes.

No doubt about it now, when a Caribbean storm is producing -95ºC cloud tops on its way to becoming a major I think it's safe to say the switch has been fully flipped. Not to get ahead of things here, but... does anyone else think that getting to 200 ACE this season still isn't completely unrealistic if the models' forecast for a hyperactive next few weeks verifies? At this point I wouldn't even be surprised to see hurricane activity through the middle of November with how warm SSTs are throughout literally the entire Atlantic basin.

I think 200 ACE is overambitious even if activity is hyperactive from now to the end of the season. To get 200+ ACE you really need a long tracking MDR major hurricane or two and the Cape Verde season will likely be winding down soon. It is much harder to get a very high ACE storm that forms in the Caribbean Sea/Gulf even if it becomes a cat 4 or 5 because the distance it can move before hitting land and weakening is limited.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yes.

No doubt about it now, when a Caribbean storm is producing -95ºC cloud tops on its way to becoming a major I think it's safe to say the switch has been fully flipped. Not to get ahead of things here, but... does anyone else think that getting to 200 ACE this season still isn't completely unrealistic if the models' forecast for a hyperactive next few weeks verifies? At this point I wouldn't even be surprised to see hurricane activity through the middle of November with how warm SSTs are throughout literally the entire Atlantic basin.

I think 200 ACE is overambitious even if activity is hyperactive from now to the end of the season. To get 200+ ACE you really need a long tracking MDR major hurricane or two and the Cape Verde season will likely be winding down soon. It is much harder to get a very high ACE storm that forms in the Caribbean Sea/Gulf even if it becomes a cat 4 or 5 because the distance it can move before hitting land and weakening is limited.

While definitely not the norm, it is interesting to note that among the highest producing ACE systems in the Atlantic include Matthew and the 1932 Cuba Hurricane, which formed just outside the Caribbean Sea but moved very slowly while maintaining Category 4+ strength for days. And they were late season storms too

[Teban54]

Even if Francine and Gordon were false alarms, this doesn't feel like one.

[cycloneye]

Yes 1,000 %.

[Teban54]

Even if Francine and Gordon were false alarms, this doesn't feel like one.
https://i.postimg.cc/ydqMJMfM/two-atl-7d0.png

Update: