ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1741 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:43 pm

I think this will be the slightly weaker version of Michael 2018. Maybe cat4 into the same general area of florida.

I wouldn't be shocked if she wants to give her uncle a run for his money but that is yet to be seen!
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1742 Postby Pipelines182 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:44 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
3090 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Helene finally has the structure to help it intensify rapidly. The dry air has mixed out quickly and a core seems to be developing. It's about to be off to the races.

You can see on visible the dry air entrainment is still present wrapping in/around from the SE side. Good structure for sure but still sucking some dry air in.


true, but you pretty much will see that with every strong system that's developing. If you go back and look at the various hurricane threads, usually you will see dry air mentioned a few times with every potentially strong hurricane. But they almost always end up mixing it out over time, unless of course dry air is extreme, which it isn't with Helene.


Yeah but it often goes both ways though, you often see mentioned when systems don't strengthen like predicted it's because of dry air the system can't seem to mix out. Models handle dry air very very poorly at this scale.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1743 Postby acidus » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:45 pm

From Joe Bastardi:

Helene fighting dry air right now, inhibiting deepening next few hours. Eye like feature is being formed by dry air injection, not strong sinking in center of CDO As long as that can wrap in, the storm can not deepen. Expect a reversal tho in the coming hours

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1839025666265592248
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1744 Postby Michele B » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:46 pm

technikal wrote:
Texashawk wrote:Question for people who live near Tallahassee: That city has had a lot of near misses over the last century. Do people there feel like they’ll get ‘lucky’ again or is there a sense that this is the ‘really big one’ finally coming?


The mood changed today and lots of people are leaving town. We expect long power outages, flooding, and lots of downed trees. I still think people are hesitant to believe true major hurricane forces will make it this far inland, but people are definitely nervous and preparing.


If anybody in Tallahassee still believe they are "too far inland" to be under a threat, they need to look at the warnings! ALL OF GEORGIA has been been declared disaster area.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1745 Postby TampaCE » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:49 pm

Personally I won’t mind if this storm never shakes out the dry air, can’t stack the LLC and MLC, and struggles / underperforms for the next 24 hours. I doubt it’ll happen but the longer she struggles the better I feel and hopefully that lowers the impacts to the west coast of FL.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1746 Postby Michele B » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:51 pm

Amlee79 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
LandoWill wrote:Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,

Before you get upset about schools, let the storm pass and then state your case.


I live in Polk and our schools are closed too - but we are forecast to get strong wind gusts. Our mail carrier, who picks up all our business packages, is not allowed to drive the tall truck in the wind. I expect there are similar rules for wind gusts and school buses. They don't want to take chances with kids on a bus, I'm sure.


I'm south of Polk, and I remember when Debby passed through here, we had "residual" winds and weather as the tail end of the storm passed us for more than another full day afterwards.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1747 Postby Pipelines182 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:54 pm

Now begins the argument as old as how long weather forums have existed. Is it a formative eye or a dry slot? Let the arguments begin!
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1748 Postby Michele B » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:55 pm

bigfluffydogs wrote:
Michele B wrote:
dkommers wrote:
Yeah I'm a Public Adjuster and have about 20 clients in Perry, Madison, Mayo, etc, from Idalia. Debbie created more messes, and now Helene. Three hurricanes hitting an area in a one-year time period is bonkers. It is true that being an isolated area, the money loss of a hit here compared to other regions will count as a win in the insurance companies' eyes. But the communities in this area are in shambles. The morale of the amazing people there is beyond horrible.

It seems this storm will also be much worse than the previous two. My stomach is hurting thinking about what people will soon be dealing with.


Anyone who has not experienced a direct hit (or near miss) from one of these storms doesn't truly understand what it takes to "get back to normal life." It can takes year, DECADES, to get "back to normal."

We had Charley 20 years ago, and many homes are still not brought back to what they were pre-

And then along came Ian, and while it might SEEM like less damage, I observed that that was mostly due to the oldest, most dilapidated homes hadn't already been knocked down by Charley! Meanwhile, many of the "fringe" homes - those who were badly damaged, but not judged to be completed destroyed - had people living in them simply because FEMA or insurance or whatever was not enough to bring their home back up to what they had before the storm were now damaged beyond repair. Whose sections of our town look like a bomb went off - still - 2 years later.

And now if a THIRD one were to hit here (TWO years later, not just one, or only a few months), I don't know how this community could survive.

I especially feel terrible for Mexico Beach, as we drove up there with supplies for that area after Michael and could not believe the entire beach along one stretch - for miles - was just *gone.* What does one do then? Did FEMA help pay for them to rebuild? Did they get enough insurance? Did they simply move away or are they close by, planning/hoping to rebuild one day. And now another storm may make that impossible?

I suppose one could make the argument that the "atmosphere conditions have changed" and returned to the middle of the last century (yes, I'm old enough to remember then!), when we had back-to-back storms in consecutive years and you just had to rebuild.


Mexico Beach as you see it today is not the same as it was. FEMA gave only so much and without flood insurance, the houses that got wrecked by surge did not get nearly enough to rebuild. There are still damaged houses unoccupied there. What is being built makes my construction lawyer eyeballs twitch and it's mainly being bought by people as second homes. Wood frame, not concrete, and not nearly enough strapping in my opinion in a VE zone on the water is not going to make it. Cape San Blas has houses basically in the water that will not survive. Charming little places like Carabelle will be at risk of demolition if half of what appears to be coming comes to fruition. Our house in St Joe Beach will come out of this OK I think on this storm, but if we get another Michael down the road, we won't rebuild another time. There is a great book called the Geography of Risk that talks about the flood insurance angle of your question. And now, back to lurking.


Thanks for your response. I suspected it wasn't built back better (sorry!). Oftentimes it is the $$$ issue. I feel very bad for those who had lovely homes there on the beach and lost it all.

Hopefully, those who are there now are smart enough to get out and be safe. I think I heard horror stories about many who would not leave, never to be seen again...
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1749 Postby Keldeo1997 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:55 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1750 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:58 pm

Pipelines182 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Helene finally has the structure to help it intensify rapidly. The dry air has mixed out quickly and a core seems to be developing. It's about to be off to the races.


I'm not placing my bets until that core is successfully wrapped, seen too many storms struggle getting a solid eyewall together for a very long time once dry air gets entrained. We'll see!


Which is exactly why it's not expected to reach cat 3 status until tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1751 Postby Powellrm » Wed Sep 25, 2024 2:59 pm

Pipelines182 wrote:Now begins the argument as old as how long weather forums have existed. Is it a formative eye or a dry slot? Let the arguments begin!


Talk about classic comments and questions, Ooh here’s a good one: is it an annular hurricane?? I had to jump in and claim that one in my “hurricane forum bingo” card!

(Im kidding by the way. In case that’s not clear lol)
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1752 Postby fci » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:01 pm

LandoWill wrote:Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,


I'm sorry; but your forecast is:
Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible.
Do you really think schools should be open with winds expected of 39-74 and possibly higher?
School buses swaying and swerving in gusts?
I'm sure that you would have no complaints if your children, or your neighbor's children; were endangered and possibly injured.
C'mon......nice it "worked out" for you though
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1753 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:01 pm

Pipelines182 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
3090 wrote:You can see on visible the dry air entrainment is still present wrapping in/around from the SE side. Good structure for sure but still sucking some dry air in.


true, but you pretty much will see that with every strong system that's developing. If you go back and look at the various hurricane threads, usually you will see dry air mentioned a few times with every potentially strong hurricane. But they almost always end up mixing it out over time, unless of course dry air is extreme, which it isn't with Helene.


Yeah but it often goes both ways though, you often see mentioned when systems don't strengthen like predicted it's because of dry air the system can't seem to mix out. Models handle dry air very very poorly at this scale.


Just got to go with what the hurricane models and the NHC is telling us. It still has well over 24 hours before landfall. plenty of time to mix all that dry air out.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1754 Postby Pipelines182 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:02 pm

Michele B wrote:
Thanks for your response. I suspected it wasn't built back better (sorry!). Oftentimes it is the $$$ issue. I feel very bad for those who had lovely homes there on the beach and lost it all.

Hopefully, those who are there now are smart enough to get out and be safe. I think I heard horror stories about many who would not leave, never to be seen again...


The unfortunate truth is that there are some places that people shouldn't live and I say that as someone with a vacation home on the beach in NC. We shouldn't be building or living right on the coastline in surge prone areas, it's no different than living in the floodway of a river. If people do decide to build there, the government shouldn't be bailing them out when the inevitable storm comes and destroys their home. The government should do everything they can to protect lives, but it isn't their job to protect lifestyles, especially when someone makes a poor financial decision by owning a home without sufficient insurance to cover it after a total loss.

My 1960s house will one day be destroyed by a hurricane, my insurance won't cover the very expensive rebuild, I'm ok with that.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1755 Postby Michele B » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:02 pm

toad strangler wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
LandoWill wrote:Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,


Theyre not just closed for shelters. I'm much further away from landfall and our schools are closed because it's not safe to operate School busses full of children in tropical storm conditions. Nor is it safe for children to walk or ride their bikes home from school during these types of conditions. I doubt many kids will be outside playing tomorrow.


BINGO!

And you are in Martin County correct? I work in Stuart and have been seeing these far flung outer showers move through ... a decent cell just went through Port St. Lucie


Yes, a pretty decent cell just went through DeSoto County, too! Plenty of lightning and thunder and quite strong winds along with the heavy rains. And the storm is still pretty far away.

It's gonna be a long night.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1756 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:03 pm

Looks like the track will remain steady at the next update. NHC will likely show Cat 4 at the 18z forecast point tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1757 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:03 pm

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1758 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:03 pm

Looks like the track will remain steady at the next update. NHC will likely show Cat 4 at the 18z forecast point tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1759 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:06 pm

First significant outer band of Helene moving into the Tampa Bay area now, been watching it move northward and hold together all afternoon from about Marco Island, will be interesting to see what kind of gusts it brings.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1760 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Josh looking for the best spot to chase Helene's eye.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839005605127926070



Current track looks like between Carabelle and Panacea right now. Any slight east wobble or deviation could easily mean St. Marks. Beyond that there's not much other than a bit further east of there at one of the resorts on Econfina River Rd. Any larger east track adjustment and we're talking south of Perry around Keaton Beach. Problem is he'll have to commit one way or another because the water will pile up in there way prior to landfall and there will be no jockeying around for a better spot. I'd head to St. Marks and hope there's a 3 story condo or building there. If not, maybe one of the resorts off the Econfina rd? Otherwise, I'd rather risk targeting further east than ending up to far to the west
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