ATL: JOYCE - Models

[AJC3]

Models only here.

[Travorum]

12z hurricane model gifs:

[WaveBreaking]

12z hurricane model gifs:

https://i.imgur.com/sjB33xQ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/5zO6Sjl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/zYQT66w.gif

https://i.imgur.com/u83ZBS6.gif

It can’t be a 1st hurricane model suite without at least one of the HAFS models blowing up the invest

[aspen]

12z hurricane model gifs:

https://i.imgur.com/sjB33xQ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/5zO6Sjl.gif

https://i.imgur.com/zYQT66w.gif

https://i.imgur.com/u83ZBS6.gif

It can’t be a 1st hurricane model suite without at least one of the HAFS models blowing up the invest

Even then, I’m still surprised they’re this aggressive with 98L. Would be cool to have an OTS MDR major, but I still think we’ll just see a slightly stronger repeat of Gordon.

[tulum07]

Anyone have more info and thoughts on the GFS showing a storm in the gulf next week?

[WaveBreaking]

Anyone have more info and thoughts on the GFS showing a storm in the gulf next week?

It’s being talked about more in the global models discussion thread. But yeah it has decent ensemble support, and the Operational Euro shows it too, so it’ll probably get tagged by NHC soon imo.

[Travorum]

After the ceremonial insane initial 12z hurricane model suite the 18z runs have calmed down a bit, with the exception of HMON which believes that shear is just a construct and brings 98L up 40kts stronger than 12z:

[Michele B]

Anyone have more info and thoughts on the GFS showing a storm in the gulf next week?

Is this really possibly going into the Gulf?!?! It looks like it's moving NW now, which might move it OTS.

[Teban54]

Anyone have more info and thoughts on the GFS showing a storm in the gulf next week?

Is this really possibly going into the Gulf?!?! It looks like it's moving NW now, which might move it OTS.

They were talking about another possible disturbance (which now has its own thread and 0/20 chance given by the NHC), not 98L. 98L is expected to recurve.