ATL: HELENE - Models

[AnnularCane]

So, this is a weird question, but does anyone know why the NHC's cone and the model track guidance on Tropical Tidbits are so much further west in comparison to the actual models? The latter shows many of the models (and therefore TVCN) to the left of their operational runs, which is pretty confusing.
https://i.postimg.cc/VNf0ydSb/09-L-tracks-latest.png

I'm wondering more about those tracks that appear to be heading back east.

[Powellrm]

12z icon appears to be more aligned with GFS. Not that they were super dissimilar. ICON now seems a little more west, but shows a 941 near landfall.

[Beachside]

While the models seem to be trending east, the NHC forecast track seems to have ticked slightly west. Or do my eyes deceive me?

[Bocadude85]

12z Euro is a hair east of the 6z.. man oh man Perry can’t seem to catch a break.

[caneman]

12z Euro is a hair east of the 6z.. man oh man Perry can’t seem to catch a break.

Where is it showing landfall?

[ThunderForce]

What is OFCI? Tropical Tidbits shows it on the 18Z consensus as being way west of the current track, pretty much over the far western side of Gulf County and close to Bay. I can't really see it but TVCN seems a fair bit east of it. In any case I'm probably going to have to evacuate if this keeps shifting westward.

On a side note, it's getting really weird how far left these consensus models are compared to the operational models and ensembles.

[HurricaneBelle]

What is OFCI? Tropical Tidbits shows it on the 18Z consensus as being way west of the current track, pretty much over the far western side of Gulf County and close to Bay. I can't really see it but TVCN seems a fair bit east of it. In any case I'm probably going to have to evacuate if this keeps shifting westward.

On a side note, it's getting really weird how far left these consensus models are compared to the operational models and ensembles.

OFCI = Official NHC track

[ThunderForce]

What is OFCI? Tropical Tidbits shows it on the 18Z consensus as being way west of the current track, pretty much over the far western side of Gulf County and close to Bay. I can't really see it but TVCN seems a fair bit east of it. In any case I'm probably going to have to evacuate if this keeps shifting westward.

On a side note, it's getting really weird how far left these consensus models are compared to the operational models and ensembles.

OFCI = Official NHC track

Thanks. I guess I'm going to likely have to evacuate somewhere and hope my house remains intact.

Sigh... First Michael, and now this.

[Bocadude85]

12z Euro is a hair east of the 6z.. man oh man Perry can’t seem to catch a break.

Where is it showing landfall?

Eyeballing it looks like Taylor county, maybe a touch southwest of Perry.

[typhoonty]

breathing much easier in Tampa right now. Looks like our winning streak will continue.

Let’s please not declare Tampa as winning until after the storm. Projected surge values suggest the highest surge since Elena at least, and it could be the worst in living memory if it takes the eastern edge of the cone.

It doesn’t need to be a city ender to be a loss.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

breathing much easier in Tampa right now. Looks like our winning streak will continue.

Let’s please not declare Tampa as winning until after the storm. Projected surge values suggest the highest surge since Elena at least, and it could be the worst in living memory if it takes the eastern edge of the cone.

It doesn’t need to be a city ender to be a loss.

true. But As a Tampa area resident, I am relieved the models did not go this way. This area has built up so much, it would be a mind-boggling catastrophe.

[Bocadude85]

What is OFCI? Tropical Tidbits shows it on the 18Z consensus as being way west of the current track, pretty much over the far western side of Gulf County and close to Bay. I can't really see it but TVCN seems a fair bit east of it. In any case I'm probably going to have to evacuate if this keeps shifting westward.

On a side note, it's getting really weird how far left these consensus models are compared to the operational models and ensembles.

OFCI = Official NHC track

Thanks. I guess I'm going to likely have to evacuate somewhere and hope my house remains intact.

Sigh... First Michael, and now this.

That is not the official NHC track, OFCL is the official track. I haven’t seen anything in the 12z models to indicate a track shift that far west.

[Steve]

I know yesterday when I posted the link to every model output ever seems like a really long time ago. But since I like you guys, I'll post the link again after telling you that

OFCI is the Official NHC Track interpolated out 6 hours ahead.

I believe I recall reading that any model ending with an "I" is interpolated 6 hours. 12 hours ends with a U or something like that but I can't specifically recall outside of the 6 hour interpolations.

For future reference, here are the abbreviations and descriptions of almost every model ever:

https://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mod ... age=models

[tolakram]

I know yesterday when I posted the link to every model output ever seems like a really long time ago. But since I like you guys, I'll post the link again after telling you that

OFCI is the Official NHC Track interpolated out 6 hours ahead.

I believe I recall reading that any model ending with an "I" is interpolated 6 hours. 12 hours ends with a U or something like that but I can't specifically recall outside of the 6 hour interpolations.

For future reference, here are the abbreviations and descriptions of almost every model ever:

https://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mod ... age=models

NHC Provisional Forecast (from ATCF Database)

OFCP - National Hurricane Center (NHC) provisional forecast (in ATCF system) (more)
OFPI - National Hurricane Center (NHC) provisional forecast in ATCF system (Interpolated 6 hours)
OFP2 - National Hurricane Center (NHC) provisional forecast in ATCF system (Interpolated 12 hours)

[StormPyrate]

not much of a east adjustment for NHC track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/H ... _with_line

[Travorum]

18z ICON comes in slightly east and a hair slower than 12z, about 8mb higher pressure as well:

[caneman]

Please delete

[caneman]

18z ICON comes in slightly east and a hair slower than 12z, about 8mb higher pressure as well:

https://i.imgur.com/sw7auaO.png

That looks more than slight. 20 or 30 miles east I think. Maybe Steinhatchee.

Edit: more like 60 miles give or take.

[Travorum]

18z ICON comes in slightly east and a hair slower than 12z, about 8mb higher pressure as well:

https://i.imgur.com/sw7auaO.png

That looks more than slight. 20 or 30 miles east I think. Maybe Steinhatchee

Yeah you're right, I didn't see the next frame but extrapolating from where it is inland looks like right into Steinhatchee.

[Poonwalker]

Bloody Icon. That hair shift east is putting some core effects into the west coast surge. That’s the problem with this track angle and also the intensity which is likely going to be higher than 947 mb. Can’t let your guard down on this one.