ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

I just stared at the visible loop for ten minutes like a lunatic and ya the overall motion appears to be due north. I think there might have been a slight eastern wobble for a minute but overall due N.

I used to put a piece of see thru paper on the screen and mark the center spots on loop then calculate the direction. Thats my lunacy

[typhoonty]

I would just wait for the VDM and interpolate the lines. Far more concrete than your lying eyes.

I probably have myopia just from doing the same in the past

[Frank P]

Does anyone have a web site link that shows a current position of the storm and possible deviation from the official hurricane forecast track? thanks

[eastcoastFL]

I use this to sat loop to track lat and long, if you go to the web site you can stop the loop and single advance them you can see the fixes and how the lat and long changes in the box in the upper right corner. Not sure how accurate but it usually correlates to the NHC fixes the times I've checked it.
https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/09L/glm/

https://i.ibb.co/hXWNLDh/goes16-glm-09-L-1.gif

What did you take from it as far as movement goes? I'm looking at it but there's just too much going on for me.

[Jonny]

:roll:

Media needs to rethink how they do graphics.

I'm now seeing paths that make the landfall appear more western.

Looks like it's a tad more west now on the NHC website. Especially further inland. Now it goes up the Georgia bama border just on the Georgia side.

I find it misleading how they've been predicting landfall in the pink area I marked, yet the current path is more western.

[sweetpea]

Franklin, Wakulla and Taylor Counties are doing mandatory evacutions FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTIES! Has anyone ever heard of that being done before??

Is it not usually the norm to do that?

No, not usually. They usually evacuate according to zones. I am one of those people from Wakulla that left. I live in Sopchoppy. I live 3.5 miles from the gulf and am surrounded by trees. So we left. It was so hard to leave our house, my husband said you realize odds aren't the best that it will be ok. I just started crying and said let's go. Stay safe everyone in the path of this storm

[StormPyrate]

Does anyone have a web site link that shows a current position of the storm and possible deviation from the official hurricane forecast track? thanks

https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/# ... ,lines:off

[StormPyrate]

What is the best site, even if paid that gets the models the fastest

[ConvergenceZone]

with some models getting aggressive again with another storm in the gulf in a few days, we have some busy days ahead of us.

[StPeteMike]

What is the best site, even if paid that gets the models the fastest

I’ve liked Pivotal for the models because you get them a little bit faster.

https://home.pivotalweather.com/

[Frank P]

Center appears a tad west of the latest GFS and EURO ensembles per the sat image.

[fwbbreeze]

:roll:

Media needs to rethink how they do graphics.

I'm now seeing paths that make the landfall appear more western.

Looks like it's a tad more west now on the NHC website. Especially further inland. Now it goes up the Georgia bama border just on the Georgia side.

I find it misleading how they've been predicting landfall in the pink area I marked, yet the current path is more western.

http://i.imgur.com/8UTiOK4.jpeg

This graphic is not misleading. The NHC uses more than just computer modeling to determine future path and intensity Even though models may take it more east doesn't mean that's ultimately where it will end up.

[Jr0d]

I would just wait for the VDM and interpolate the lines. Far more concrete than your lying eyes.

I probably have myopia just from doing the same in the past

Look st the vortex data message from the NHC.

Unfortunately between flights can be a few hours...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

[eastcoastFL]

:roll:

Media needs to rethink how they do graphics.

I'm now seeing paths that make the landfall appear more western.

Looks like it's a tad more west now on the NHC website. Especially further inland. Now it goes up the Georgia bama border just on the Georgia side.

I find it misleading how they've been predicting landfall in the pink area I marked, yet the current path is more western.

http://i.imgur.com/8UTiOK4.jpeg

Who are they in this context? Is the pink just a hurricane warning area? Because the worst effects will be right there to the east of center.

[ineedsnow]

What is the best site, even if paid that gets the models the fastest

I got stormVista and even get the Euro way earlier

[ScottNAtlanta]

There are hurricane warnings as far north as Warner Robbins GA...that is just unheard of

[Storminole1]

The question has been raised, when was the last time that Tallahassee was hit by a major hurricane? As a history buff living in the area, I know of one storm that may be the answer. And it was quite a while ago!

In August 1851, Tallahassee was hit by a storm known ever after as "The Great Storm," a hurricane remembered for decades and conversation piece even long after the Civil War. Below is the contemporary account published the wek following in Tallahassee's Floridian and Journal. The description of the winds as "going around southward" tells us that Tallahassee took the right side of the storm.

It lasted from an early hour of the morning on Saturday [August 23], till near dawn on Sunday--at first the wind blowing in squalls more or less frequent from the East, then about noon, Saturday, going around Southward, and increasing in violence and long-continued blasts till it rose to a furious gale, which was about its worst at two o'clock next morning, and after that gradually abating, till daylight. It was raining nearly all the while in great torrents.

Trees of all sorts and sizes were broken down or torn from their roots, and those that remained were rudely stripped of many of their limbs and much of their foliage. Houses were unroofed, some blown down, and others greatly injured, and fences generally, in whole or in part, were thrown to the earth. Altogether, the scene as it presented itself here on Sunday morning was a vast chaos of destruction and of entangled streets and yards.

The tin roofing of the Capitol was torn off, a window blown in, much of the glass broken, and several of the rooms drenched with water--but the books and archives were very little injured. Captain Bonds's Warehouse was left a complete wreck. The "Exchange" buildings unroofed. The Hoc building, formerly occupied for the Floridian office, partly unroofed and much injured. The Market House prostrated. Many other houses sustained damage....we cannot undertake to estimate the loss the storm has caused...there will be immense loss in consequence.

To me this storm must have been at least a Cat 3 ... what do you think?

[Hurricane Mike]

6pm video update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGwleFrzjSM

[USTropics]

Looks like it's a tad more west now on the NHC website. Especially further inland. Now it goes up the Georgia bama border just on the Georgia side.

I find it misleading how they've been predicting landfall in the pink area I marked, yet the current path is more western.

http://i.imgur.com/8UTiOK4.jpeg

This graphic is not misleading. The NHC uses more than just computer modeling to determine future path and intensity Even though models may take it more east doesn't mean that's ultimately where it will end up.

The NHC will rely heavily on consensus models that blend model data and correct for biases. For instance, the TVCN has been locked in for 6 runs in a row essentially:

[jdjaguar]

I just stared at the visible loop for ten minutes like a lunatic and ya the overall motion appears to be due north. I think there might have been a slight eastern wobble for a minute but overall due N.

I used to put a piece of see thru paper on the screen and mark the center spots on loop then calculate the direction. Thats my lunacy

Back in the day I used graph paper to plot the coordinates
Then drew a vector

Fun times