ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[idaknowman]

Miami radar - [imgur]https://imgur.com/a/9NnixrI/imgur]

[Jonny]

Looks like it's a tad more west now on the NHC website. Especially further inland. Now it goes up the Georgia bama border just on the Georgia side.

I find it misleading how they've been predicting landfall in the pink area I marked, yet the current path is more western.

http://i.imgur.com/8UTiOK4.jpeg

This graphic is not misleading. The NHC uses more than just computer modeling to determine future path and intensity Even though models may take it more east doesn't mean that's ultimately where it will end up.

True.

I find it misleading though because they've been saying east, and still do so, yet the path is more west now.

Would be troublesome if the path moved even further west and some people didn't evacuate because their area appeared to be safe.

[jdjaguar]

:roll:

Media needs to rethink how they do graphics.

I'm now seeing paths that make the landfall appear more western.

Looks like it's a tad more west now on the NHC website. Especially further inland. Now it goes up the Georgia bama border just on the Georgia side.

I find it misleading how they've been predicting landfall in the pink area I marked, yet the current path is more western.

http://i.imgur.com/8UTiOK4.jpeg

Who is they?
Predicted landfall has not deviated much in the last 24 hours per NHC track

[Frank P]

I use this to sat loop to track lat and long, if you go to the web site you can stop the loop and single advance them you can see the fixes and how the lat and long changes in the box in the upper right corner. Not sure how accurate but it usually correlates to the NHC fixes the times I've checked it.
https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/09L/glm/

https://i.ibb.co/hXWNLDh/goes16-glm-09-L-1.gif

What did you take from it as far as movement goes? I'm looking at it but there's just too much going on for me.

Looks to be on track to me.. would expect some wobbles here and there.. nothing suspicious at all

[Category5Kaiju]

The question has been raised, when was the last time that Tallahassee was hit by a major hurricane? As a history buff living in the area, I know of one storm that may be the answer. And it was quite a while ago!

In August 1851, Tallahassee was hit by a storm known ever after as "The Great Storm," a hurricane remembered for decades and conversation piece even long after the Civil War. Below is the contemporary account published the wek following in Tallahassee's Floridian and Journal. The description of the winds as "going around southward" tells us that Tallahassee took the right side of the storm.

It lasted from an early hour of the morning on Saturday [August 23], till near dawn on Sunday--at first the wind blowing in squalls more or less frequent from the East, then about noon, Saturday, going around Southward, and increasing in violence and long-continued blasts till it rose to a furious gale, which was about its worst at two o'clock next morning, and after that gradually abating, till daylight. It was raining nearly all the while in great torrents.

Trees of all sorts and sizes were broken down or torn from their roots, and those that remained were rudely stripped of many of their limbs and much of their foliage. Houses were unroofed, some blown down, and others greatly injured, and fences generally, in whole or in part, were thrown to the earth. Altogether, the scene as it presented itself here on Sunday morning was a vast chaos of destruction and of entangled streets and yards.

The tin roofing of the Capitol was torn off, a window blown in, much of the glass broken, and several of the rooms drenched with water--but the books and archives were very little injured. Captain Bonds's Warehouse was left a complete wreck. The "Exchange" buildings unroofed. The Hoc building, formerly occupied for the Floridian office, partly unroofed and much injured. The Market House prostrated. Many other houses sustained damage....we cannot undertake to estimate the loss the storm has caused...there will be immense loss in consequence.

To me this storm must have been at least a Cat 3 ... what do you think?

Wouldn't surprise me the say the least. And....probably fast-moving, given Tally is somewhat inland, so for a hurricane to pack a punch there without losing power, it must have been moving rather brisk (kind of like how Michael hit Georgia as a Category 3 and how the 1938 Yankee Clipper hit New England as a Category 3, which would've been rather unlikely with a slower system)

[Frank P]

Does anyone have a web site link that shows a current position of the storm and possible deviation from the official hurricane forecast track? thanks

https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/# ... ,lines:off

thanks for the link SP

[Zonacane]

Those rain rates look pitiful to my eye, thoughts GCANE?

[tolakram]

:roll:

Media needs to rethink how they do graphics.

I'm now seeing paths that make the landfall appear more western.

Looks like it's a tad more west now on the NHC website. Especially further inland. Now it goes up the Georgia bama border just on the Georgia side.

I find it misleading how they've been predicting landfall in the pink area I marked, yet the current path is more western.

http://i.imgur.com/8UTiOK4.jpeg

What is this unlabeled plot?

[Jonny]

Predicted landfall has not deviated much in the last 24 hours per NHC track

I know.

Maybe I've just been interpreting landfall as further east than stated, hence the latest path catching me off guard? lol

[syfr]

:roll:

Media needs to rethink how they do graphics.

I'm now seeing paths that make the landfall appear more western.

That's why that plain old windows3.1 looking NHC track and cone are so useful.

All the stuff you need, none of the stuff you don't.

[Dean4Storms]

They have raised our wind threat here in South Walton County out here in the Panhandle to 50-60mph gusts on the western side. Don’t want anymore westward track adjustments.

[Jonny]

That's why that plain old windows3.1 looking NHC track and cone are so useful.

All the stuff you need, none of the stuff you don't.

Example?

[Sunnydays]

They have raised our wind threat here in South Walton County out here in the Panhandle to 50-60mph gusts on the western side. Don’t want anymore westward track adjustments.

They are even closing schools tomorrow in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties to your West. Not taking chances with gusts and school busses on the road.

[ScottNAtlanta]

FINALLY power is back on. I've considered it a dry run for tomorrow and Friday. I will probably go out of my mind

[FLpanhandle91]

Not a very impressive storm at the moment. Dry air really did a number on her.

[syfr]

That's why that plain old windows3.1 looking NHC track and cone are so useful.

All the stuff you need, none of the stuff you don't.

Example?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213335.shtml?cone#contents

[cheezyWXguy]

Those rain rates look pitiful to my eye, thoughts GCANE?

Just needs some time. Dry air has been walled off and is slowly starting to moisten. Cloud tops gradually beginning to cool again. It will probably be a more dramatic show later tonight into tomorrow.

[Joe Snow]

I am wondering how those oil rigs will fair in the Gulf with this storm. Do any of them report weather conditions?

[HurricaneRyan]

This is reminding me of Ian. Not a good sign especially since my sister lives in the panhandle and one of my high school friends lives in the Atlanta area.

[jdjaguar]

I am wondering how those oil rigs will fair in the Gulf with this storm. Do any of them report weather conditions?

Rigs are well west