ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1941 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:35 pm

Spaghetti models are indicating that Helene might start making its little westward turn before it makes landfall.

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1942 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:36 pm

Looks like the eye is starting to close off

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1943 Postby fci » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:45 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
ObsessedMiami wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Thanks everyone, Dade is the only public school system open in Florida tomorrow, it could change.

I just don’t see it. Betty Davis was just on Channel 10 here predicting 45-55 mph gusts at noon tomorrow across Miami. I don’t see how they can justify being open during dismissal


A lot of parents will probably keep their kids home tomorrow. I work in palm beach and everyone already decided their kids were going to be home tomorrow before they announced closures this afternoon.


So irresponsible for Dade County to be the only county in the state open tomorrow.
If they do get TS Force winds they will exceed what most counties allow a school bus to operate in.
Dumb..
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1944 Postby Pelicane » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:46 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Looks like the eye is starting to close off

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_09L/web/gifsBy12hr_02.gif


You can tell how the Yucatan really slowed it down. Some of the HAFS solutions where it really bottomed out had it with a smaller core. However, the HWRF and HMON had a larger core, so it deepened but not as much. Seems like the HWRF and HMON solutions are more accurate at the moment.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1945 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:47 pm

Pompano Beach Airpark recently reported a 49mph wind gust.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1946 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:47 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Majek wrote:Escambia and Santa Rosa are the western most counties in Florida. Schools in both counties are closed tomorrow.
Thanks everyone, Dade is the only public school system open in Florida tomorrow, it could change.

I just don’t see it. Betty Davis was just on Channel 10 here predicting 45-55 mph gusts at noon tomorrow across Miami. I don’t see how they can justify being open during dismissal
We just had a 55 mph gust at FLL.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1947 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:48 pm

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1948 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:57 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:
underthwx wrote:That may change tho.....this is an evolving event....impacts will be widespread unfortunately....im not sure how these school districts make decisions...regarding Helene....but im sure they are being advised by many agencies.....


The decision won't change unless it is a drastic change. I work for Miami-Dade County Public Schools and the superintendent met with Broward's superintendent and they made the decision together. I also am a union representative and we pushed for it but it was a no. The only thing that changed is that outdoor events are to be moved indoors.


So much for the joint statement. Now Broward is closed and Dade remains open. SMH


I thought that was interesting too. Not too long after I read that I see broward is closing. Whoever the dade superintendent is, they now stand alone.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1949 Postby GTStorm » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:57 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

so...is this good news? meaning...not quite as intense?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1950 Postby rigbyrigz » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:02 pm

rigbyrigz wrote:The upgraded Tallahassee NWS regional forecasts are now out... of 15 sections the worst one is PERRY:

For: Inland Taylor County

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Perry

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane
force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 80-100 mph with gusts to
120 mph


Sorry if this isn't interesting to many but I find it mindboggling despite decades of Florida storms. (Above is last nite 11PM upd.)

The excerpt below is the LATEST for Perry (Inland Taylor County). My Florida weather resource (Linda Somers) says it's due to a wee nudge westward of expected landfall. OFC could nudge back(timing is everything, and models are so-so?) Just amazes me what a difference 50 miles of landfall can make, despite all the experts saying don't let that fool you for such a big storm. Comments?

Helene Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL092024
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

FLZ028-260215-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Taylor-
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Perry

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday afternoon
until early Friday morning
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1951 Postby sicktght311 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:04 pm

GTStorm wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

so...is this good news? meaning...not quite as intense?


Look at the 24hr portion. Cat 3 likely. Probably still Cat 4+ tho
Last edited by sicktght311 on Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1952 Postby canetracker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:05 pm

Prof wrote:I have friends just west of Gainesville who are trying to decide whether to go more east. I can’t seem to find clear weather info for that area. Does anyone know what to expect around the Newberry/Archer area?

This is the wind gust model from the 18z GFS. Hope this helps.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1953 Postby CycloysisNegative » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:05 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Looks like the eye is starting to close off

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_09L/web/gifsBy12hr_02.gif


Link to this product?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1954 Postby LandoWill » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:06 pm

canetracker wrote:
Prof wrote:I have friends just west of Gainesville who are trying to decide whether to go more east. I can’t seem to find clear weather info for that area. Does anyone know what to expect around the Newberry/Archer area?

This is the wind gust model from the 18z GFS. Hope this helps.
https://imgur.com/7K8UgUD

Which would be problematic for the west coast, except NHC isn't going by gfs and has it considerably further west

Is there any places that shows nhc model vs actual eye location? i know after 2am it should show up on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1955 Postby Recurve » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:08 pm

Almost calm in St. Petersburg now. One squall line came through late afternoon. Looks like the next band might work its way up from near Charlotte Harbor now, and on radar Broward is getting the east end of that band. For us, looks like a big dry/clear area after that, with almost no storm cloud tops.

Anybody on Treasure Island, St. Pete beach, Gulfport, if you're not 20'+ elevation and out of Zone A should be getting out. Evac orders for mobile homes and all of zone A have been going off on my phone since this morning. The last hurricane flooded Gulfport within an inch of the floor of O'Malley's, that had to be at about 5' on Beach drive. I'm thinking Helene could push a lot more if it cranks up overnight.

======================================================
DISCLAIMER: Not an expert! Always consult the NHC, local NWS
and local authorities. Heed evacuation warnings!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1956 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:12 pm

canetracker wrote:
Prof wrote:I have friends just west of Gainesville who are trying to decide whether to go more east. I can’t seem to find clear weather info for that area. Does anyone know what to expect around the Newberry/Archer area?

This is the wind gust model from the 18z GFS. Hope this helps.
https://imgur.com/7K8UgUD


Looks like wind gusts in the 70-80mph range for portions of West-Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1957 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:13 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1958 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:14 pm

Looking at the satellite, when the eye finally opens up, it will be very large
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1959 Postby sicktght311 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:14 pm

Say what you want about the NAM, but it never fails to produce nightmare fuel
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1960 Postby canetracker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:15 pm

LandoWill wrote:
canetracker wrote:
Prof wrote:I have friends just west of Gainesville who are trying to decide whether to go more east. I can’t seem to find clear weather info for that area. Does anyone know what to expect around the Newberry/Archer area?

This is the wind gust model from the 18z GFS. Hope this helps.
https://imgur.com/7K8UgUD

Which would be problematic for the west coast, except NHC isn't going by gfs and has it considerably further west

Is there any places that shows nhc model vs actual eye location? i know after 2am it should show up on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions


You can use zoom earth to track the eye vs the NHC track: https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=radar,crosshair

Also, the only global model that I can find that goes as far west as the NHC says it will is the CMC:
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