ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have friends just west of Gainesville who are trying to decide whether to go more east. I can’t seem to find clear weather info for that area. Does anyone know what to expect around the Newberry/Archer area?

This is the wind gust model from the 18z GFS. Hope this helps.
https://imgur.com/7K8UgUD

Looks like wind gusts in the 70-80mph range for portions of West-Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area.

Same in Atlanta tomorrow night. How sick is that?!!
...and it is still raining here. Many of the creeks are just about at flood stage and we have not even begun to see Helene's stuff yet

[TallyTracker]

The upgraded Tallahassee NWS regional forecasts are now out... of 15 sections the worst one is PERRY:

For: Inland Taylor County

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Perry

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane
force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 80-100 mph with gusts to
120 mph

Sorry if this isn't interesting to many but I find it mindboggling despite decades of Florida storms. (Above is last nite 11PM upd.)

The excerpt below is the LATEST for Perry (Inland Taylor County). My Florida weather resource (Linda Somers) says it's due to a wee nudge westward of expected landfall. OFC could nudge back(timing is everything, and models are so-so?) Just amazes me what a difference 50 miles of landfall can make, despite all the experts saying don't let that fool you for such a big storm. Comments?

Helene Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL092024
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

FLZ028-260215-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Taylor-
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Perry

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday afternoon
until early Friday morning

I’ve been following these closely and using them to let family know the risks. It tells you what is forecast, but also what you should be preparing for. Tallahassee is at 85-105 mph gusting to 120 mph. The worst I could find was Crawfordville and Wakulla County at 90-110 gusting to 125.

[Kohlecane]

I have friends just west of Gainesville who are trying to decide whether to go more east. I can’t seem to find clear weather info for that area. Does anyone know what to expect around the Newberry/Archer area?

This is the wind gust model from the 18z GFS. Hope this helps.
https://imgur.com/7K8UgUD

whats that show along the Low Country Im here in HH and I'm only expecting our Tornado threat to be our big issue

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

so...is this good news? meaning...not quite as intense?

Could be. A lot of Cat 3’s on there and the NHC had cat 4 last update. We shall see.

[Cunxi Huang]

Uh, not a healthy structure.

[GTStorm]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

so...is this good news? meaning...not quite as intense?

Look at the 24hr portion. Cat 3 likely. Probably still Cat 4+ tho

5pm NHC advisory predicts 113 kts (130 mph) as maximum. Max on this plot is ~100 kts. Was just wondering if a weakening trend was now predicted.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Uh, not a healthy structure.

https://i.imgur.com/35VEa1h.png

That is quite a healthy structure. Most of an eyewall is complete. IMHO

[AxaltaRacing24]

Uh, not a healthy structure.

https://i.imgur.com/35VEa1h.png

It’s not an awful structure either. A few more hours of mixing out dry air, and it could ramp up quickly.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the eye is starting to close off

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_09L/web/gifsBy12hr_02.gif

Link to this product?

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... hr_02.html

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

so...is this good news? meaning...not quite as intense?

Look at the 24hr portion. Cat 3 likely. Probably still Cat 4+ tho

5pm NHC advisory predicts 113 kts (130 mph) as maximum. Max on this plot is ~100 kts. Was just wondering if a weakening trend was now predicted.

You can’t tell from one run what the trend might be. The nhc last update was just over an hour ago so nothing has changed so far,

[cycloneye]

Presure is steady at 973 mbs after another pass.

[Michele B]

Jim Cantore is 5 miles from my house. That’s not a good sign…

Go grab a picture?

He showed up on my street for Dorian so I flew to Denver and Dorian decided to stay in the Bahamas...

Storms run from Cantore!

[ConvergenceZone]

Say what you want about the NAM, but it never fails to produce nightmare fuel
https://i.imgur.com/6OP1h3D.png

Me Calling NAM: can I speak to NAM
NAM: This is NAM
Me: Is this some kind of sick joke you are playing?, because it's not funny!
NAM: Sorry, this is what I do.

[Poonwalker]

From west central Florida perspective, Iam less concerned about a shift at this point seeing the models have been so tightly clustered and it’s about a days window away. Chief concern is the strength and wind field at this point. So far that dry air stopped what I thought was an ominous RI development.

[GTStorm]

Look at the 24hr portion. Cat 3 likely. Probably still Cat 4+ tho

5pm NHC advisory predicts 113 kts (130 mph) as maximum. Max on this plot is ~100 kts. Was just wondering if a weakening trend was now predicted.

You can’t tell from one run what the trend might be. The nhc last update was just over an hour ago so nothing has changed so far,

True, but at any update I'd rather see it be less than more. We'll see what the 6z intensity brings. Hoping the trend continues...

[DestinHurricane]

How far west is landfall possible, is port st Joe or Mexico beach in play here? Seems MB is the farthest W solution for some of the ensemble spreads.

[eastcoastFL]

[canetracker]

I have friends just west of Gainesville who are trying to decide whether to go more east. I can’t seem to find clear weather info for that area. Does anyone know what to expect around the Newberry/Archer area?

This is the wind gust model from the 18z GFS. Hope this helps.
https://imgur.com/7K8UgUD

whats that show along the Low Country Im here in HH and I'm only expecting our Tornado threat to be our big issue

This is the GFS which comes in east of the NHC track:

This is the CMC which is pretty close to the NHC track:

[tolakram]

Ike like vibes, but to be fair these big not so pretty storms always give me Ike vibes. Huge surge potential while everyone is talking about how awful it looks. Ike never made it to major in the gulf and really exposed the inadequacies of the saffir simpson scale.

It does look bad right now, I just don't know what that means down the road. The GFS vorticity plot continues to show a non symmetrical core up until landfall, as do some of the hurricane models, yet they still show rapid deepening. We'll see.

[rigbyrigz]

I’ve been following these closely and using them to let family know the risks. It tells you what is forecast, but also what you should be preparing for. Tallahassee is at 85-105 mph gusting to 120 mph. The worst I could find was Crawfordville and Wakulla County at 90-110 gusting to 125.

Thank you!
Interesting (helpful?) to watch these variations... worst I found was Coastal Wakulla (see below.) 11PM updts will be especially interesting.

For: Coastal Wakulla County

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Saint Marks
- Panacea

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 3 Hurricane
force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 95-115 mph with gusts to
135 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday
afternoon until early Friday morning