ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Uh, not a healthy structure.

https://i.imgur.com/35VEa1h.png

That is quite a healthy structure. Most of an eyewall is complete. IMHO

That’s a very large eye, still with an opening for dry air to sneak in (and IR suggests it’s still dealing with dry air). Would be a tough structure to get any RI from.

It’s crazy to think how the Gulf has had so many systems this year, yet all of them have struggled to varying degrees. All four of the Gulf hurricanes have had significant issues with even brief land interaction and/or dry air entrainment. Goes to show how SSTs aren’t everything (even though they can theoretically support a Rita 2.0 this year).

[MetroMike]

This is the wind gust model from the 18z GFS. Hope this helps.
https://imgur.com/7K8UgUD

Which would be problematic for the west coast, except NHC isn't going by gfs and has it considerably further west

Is there any places that shows nhc model vs actual eye location? i know after 2am it should show up on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

You can use zoom earth to track the eye vs the NHC track: https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=radar,crosshair

Also, the only global model that I can find that goes as far west as the NHC says it will is the CMC:
https://imgur.com/bVYFnjt

My local TV mets would not agree with that wind depiction for Tampa

[Michele B]

Almost calm in St. Petersburg now. One squall line came through late afternoon. Looks like the next band might work its way up from near Charlotte Harbor now, and on radar Broward is getting the east end of that band. For us, looks like a big dry/clear area after that, with almost no storm cloud tops.

Anybody on Treasure Island, St. Pete beach, Gulfport, if you're not 20'+ elevation and out of Zone A should be getting out. Evac orders for mobile homes and all of zone A have been going off on my phone since this morning. The last hurricane flooded Gulfport within an inch of the floor of O'Malley's, that had to be at about 5' on Beach drive. I'm thinking Helene could push a lot more if it cranks up overnight.

======================================================
DISCLAIMER: Not an expert! Always consult the NHC, local NWS
and local authorities. Heed evacuation warnings!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anybody know when is high tide tomorrow near St. Pete area?

[Kingarabian]

Center is getting closer to the leading edge of the CDO so it probably means a temporary CCC is in place. Likely meaning that intensification could slow down for a few hours until the dry air is mixed out.

While the Cold Cast Cover (CCC) feature is gone, it's always an important satellite observation. That being said, as long as shear is low systems that undergo that feature can recover and become potent systems.

[tolakram]

Low level WV loop. A simple objective measurement is green vs blue, and green is on the increase near the center. I think.



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[weathernet]

Almost calm in St. Petersburg now. One squall line came through late afternoon. Looks like the next band might work its way up from near Charlotte Harbor now, and on radar Broward is getting the east end of that band. For us, looks like a big dry/clear area after that, with almost no storm cloud tops.

Anybody on Treasure Island, St. Pete beach, Gulfport, if you're not 20'+ elevation and out of Zone A should be getting out. Evac orders for mobile homes and all of zone A have been going off on my phone since this morning. The last hurricane flooded Gulfport within an inch of the floor of O'Malley's, that had to be at about 5' on Beach drive. I'm thinking Helene could push a lot more if it cranks up overnight.

======================================================
DISCLAIMER: Not an expert! Always consult the NHC, local NWS
and local authorities. Heed evacuation warnings!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anybody know when is high tide tomorrow near St. Pete area?

Next Tide State HIGH TIDE in Saint Pete Beach is at 7:19AM.

[canetracker]

Which would be problematic for the west coast, except NHC isn't going by gfs and has it considerably further west

Is there any places that shows nhc model vs actual eye location? i know after 2am it should show up on https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

You can use zoom earth to track the eye vs the NHC track: https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=radar,crosshair

Also, the only global model that I can find that goes as far west as the NHC says it will is the CMC:
https://imgur.com/bVYFnjt

My local TV mets would not agree with that wind depiction for Tampa

Right. That's just model depictions of wind gusts to get a general idea of what may happen. Always best to follow the local guys and the NHC.

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1839114920274649494

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks to finally be fighting off the dry air, though it's tried and failed in this very spot before earlier today.

With 24 hours to go before landfall every hour counts, it's hard not to be pleased that this is still a category 1 hurricane at the moment.

[ConvergenceZone]

Uh, not a healthy structure.

https://i.imgur.com/35VEa1h.png

That is quite a healthy structure. Most of an eyewall is complete. IMHO

That’s a very large eye, still with an opening for dry air to sneak in (and IR suggests it’s still dealing with dry air). Would be a tough structure to get any RI from.

It’s crazy to think how the Gulf has had so many systems this year, yet all of them have struggled to varying degrees. All four of the Gulf hurricanes have had significant issues with even brief land interaction and/or dry air entrainment. Goes to show how SSTs aren’t everything (even though they can theoretically support a Rita 2.0 this year).

well we will see, maybe those who mentioned dry air were right and perhaps it might have a hard time getting past high end cat 1 or cat 2. But I guess only time will tell.

[cheezyWXguy]

With regard to appearance, remember to focus on the trend over time, and not on what it looks like in this moment in a vacuum. While still fragmented, convection in the core is substantially deeper than it was a few hours ago. If this trend continues, it’s likely we will be waking up to a storm that even the naysayers will acknowledge is prettier.

[jlauderdal]

https://x.com/JohnMoralesTV/status/1839 ... z8xgA&s=19

[eastcoastFL]

The two recon flights look like they’re about to cross paths.

[ObsessedMiami]

I have relatives in Liberty County, where the center of the cone tracks, and the Liberty County EMS ordered a mandatory evacuation of all residences in the county as of noon tomorrow. Not unsafe structures. All of them

ATTENTION ALL LIBERTY COUNTY RESIDENTS

We are now expecting a Category 4 or stronger hurricane to impact us. For your safety, we are ordering a MANDATORY EVACUATION no later than 12:00 noon on Thursday, September 26th.

*Secure your property if time allows
* Follow designated evacuation routes
* If you need assistance, please contact local authorities first thing in the morning
* Stay tuned to officials for updates

Your safety is our priority. Please evacuate!

[Poonwalker]

Almost calm in St. Petersburg now. One squall line came through late afternoon. Looks like the next band might work its way up from near Charlotte Harbor now, and on radar Broward is getting the east end of that band. For us, looks like a big dry/clear area after that, with almost no storm cloud tops.

Anybody on Treasure Island, St. Pete beach, Gulfport, if you're not 20'+ elevation and out of Zone A should be getting out. Evac orders for mobile homes and all of zone A have been going off on my phone since this morning. The last hurricane flooded Gulfport within an inch of the floor of O'Malley's, that had to be at about 5' on Beach drive. I'm thinking Helene could push a lot more if it cranks up overnight.

======================================================
DISCLAIMER: Not an expert! Always consult the NHC, local NWS
and local authorities. Heed evacuation warnings!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anybody know when is high tide tomorrow near St. Pete area?

From what I can tell the next high tide is around 6am and a low around 2 pm. Helene should be pushing the most surge around 4 pm tomorrow. That means it won’t be at a full high tide.

[tolakram]

Steady to starting to intensify.



There is a comparison to Michael on X which took in some dry air as well before rapidly organizing the next day.

 https://x.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1839019333340770601

[Kazmit]

Uh, not a healthy structure.

https://i.imgur.com/35VEa1h.png

That is quite a healthy structure. Most of an eyewall is complete. IMHO

That’s a very large eye, still with an opening for dry air to sneak in (and IR suggests it’s still dealing with dry air). Would be a tough structure to get any RI from.

It’s crazy to think how the Gulf has had so many systems this year, yet all of them have struggled to varying degrees. All four of the Gulf hurricanes have had significant issues with even brief land interaction and/or dry air entrainment. Goes to show how SSTs aren’t everything (even though they can theoretically support a Rita 2.0 this year).

Dry air is the theme for this season. It may not be the inhibiting factor for genesis but it sure is for storms that already formed. In addition to the Gulf hurricanes, Ernesto also struggled with dry air which is why it never became a major. So that's every single hurricane of the season.

[Teban54]

Steady to starting to intensify.

https://i.imgur.com/d7ulCdR.png

There is a comparison to Michael on X which took in some dry air as well before rapidly organizing the next day.

 https://x.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1839019333340770601

Laura and Ida also "struggled" as Cat 1s when first entering the Gulf. People were saying very similar things to what's being said to Helene right now.

[Powellrm]

That is quite a healthy structure. Most of an eyewall is complete. IMHO

That’s a very large eye, still with an opening for dry air to sneak in (and IR suggests it’s still dealing with dry air). Would be a tough structure to get any RI from.

It’s crazy to think how the Gulf has had so many systems this year, yet all of them have struggled to varying degrees. All four of the Gulf hurricanes have had significant issues with even brief land interaction and/or dry air entrainment. Goes to show how SSTs aren’t everything (even though they can theoretically support a Rita 2.0 this year).

well we will see, maybe those who mentioned dry air were right and perhaps it might have a hard time getting past high end cat 1 or cat 2. But I guess only time will tell.

Keep in mind, it’s still handling this quite well and is entering an environment that supports explosive intensification. Storms of this caliber will be just fine. It’s not entering anything that would prohibit RI. I also hope it chokes, but I am very much worried about the next stage. It’s good that it had ingested some dry air because I’d be worried about the potential if it had not, but many of the hurricane models had this dry air within the prognosis.

[Teban54]

Also, imagine looking at this full loop and telling me this is not improving: