ATL: ISAAC - Extratropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 99, 2024092506, , BEST, 0, 373N, 585W, 50, 996, EX, 34, NEQ, 140, 0, 50, 120, 1008, 240, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, al792024 to al992024,
AL, 99, 2024092506, , BEST, 0, 373N, 585W, 50, 996, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 50, 1008, 240, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, al792024 to al992024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal992024.dat

[galaxy401]

This appears to be the Central Atlantic low. Interesting they tagged two invests at once.

[ElectricStorm]

Well that was fast lol. I guess there's an outside chance of a short-lived TS but probably not likely.

[pepeavilenho]

https://x.com/Pepeavilenho/status/1838840283498193308

[ChrisH-UK]

99L looks to have a low level circulation with a bit of convection in the centre, the main problem with it looks to be shear.

If this gets called a TS then why didn't others get called a TS, I doubt that this will be given a name.

[REDHurricane]

99L looks to have a low level circulation with a bit of convection in the centre, the main problem with it looks to be shear.

If this gets called a TS then why didn't others get called a TS, I doubt that this will be given a name.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7339/tSMIbX.gif [/url]

If this gets named then I will be 100% convinced that Michael Brennan's son is named Isaac.

[ChrisH-UK]

99L looks to have a low level circulation with a bit of convection in the centre, the main problem with it looks to be shear.

If this gets called a TS then why didn't others get called a TS, I doubt that this will be given a name.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7339/tSMIbX.gif [/url]

If this gets named then I will be 100% convinced that Michael Brennan's son is named Isaac.

Here's Michael Brennan's son then, mostly harmless.

99L looks to have some convection at the center of the circulation however it is over warm water now but will be over colder waters soon, possibly later today.

Source - https://col.st/hG6OV

[MarioProtVI]

It’s expected to stick around a little longer than most systems like this do. The hurricane models actually make it a hurricane actually, so maybe something like Pablo ‘19 is achievable here.

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located several
hundred miles to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is currently
producing winds up to storm force, and environmental conditions
could support the low developing some subtropical or tropical
characteristics over the next several days as the system moves
generally east-northeastward, remaining over the central Subtropical
Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

Generating a healthy amount of deep convection over the last few hours. It’s definitely trying. I wonder if this might be yet another missed shortie, though.

HAFS wants to make this a hurricane. I’m doubtful.

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near the center
of a gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions could support the low developing some subtropical or
tropical characteristics over the next few days, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm could form late this week or this
weekend as the system moves generally east-northeastward, remaining
over the central subtropical Atlantic. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[aspen]

This looks like a TC. Convection has remained consistent and deepened since earlier this afternoon.

[HurricaneEnzo]

This is at least a TD now likely a weak TS. Probably won't hold up long enough for NHC to pull the trigger

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[Teban54]

This is at least a TD now likely a weak TS. Probably won't hold up long enough for NHC to pull the trigger

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Imagine if this does become a hurricane like HAFS shows and is still missed by the NHC operationally somehow...

[aspen]

This is at least a TD now likely a weak TS. Probably won't hold up long enough for NHC to pull the trigger

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Imagine if this does become a hurricane like HAFS shows and is still missed by the NHC operationally somehow...

TS1 ‘23 all over again.

[Beef Stew]

This should be classified, in my opinion. The NHC has seemed hesitant to pull the trigger on short-lived storms this year, though.

[MarioProtVI]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better
organized with a gale-force area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Recently-received
satellite wind data has revealed that the low is no longer attached
to a frontal boundary and is producing a concentrated area of
tropical-storm-force winds near the center. If these trends
continue, this system is likely to become a tropical storm shortly.
The system should continue moving generally east-northeastward,
remaining over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[CrazyC83]

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL99):
Updated: Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better
organized with a gale-force area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Recently-received
satellite wind data has revealed that the low is no longer attached
to a frontal boundary and is producing a concentrated area of
tropical-storm-force winds near the center. If these trends
continue, this system is likely to become a tropical storm shortly.
The system should continue moving generally east-northeastward,
remaining over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Looks like we have Tropical Storm Isaac.

[Subtrop]

AL, 10, 2024092600, , BEST, 0, 370N, 547W, 45, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 190, 30, 50, 140, 1011, 240, 40, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, TRANSITIONED, alB92024 to al102024,

[Hurricane2022]

It will not be in 2024 that we were going to see Isaac becoming a damaging major hurricane. Maybe we will only see it on August 29, 2030.