ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Powellrm
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2001 Postby Powellrm » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:03 pm

I’m happy to see some of the dry air has delayed some of the worse, because without it I’m worried we would be having a different conversation about what is to come. As is, Helene will be horrendous, but some of the very early models showing the very very low numbers would’ve been a different kind of catastrophic.

But it’s early to say anything and I think the intensification will be quite rapid soon to come.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2002 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:08 pm

Looks about 970 mb and steady.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2003 Postby hipshot » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:10 pm

fci wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
ObsessedMiami wrote:I just don’t see it. Betty Davis was just on Channel 10 here predicting 45-55 mph gusts at noon tomorrow across Miami. I don’t see how they can justify being open during dismissal


A lot of parents will probably keep their kids home tomorrow. I work in palm beach and everyone already decided their kids were going to be home tomorrow before they announced closures this afternoon.


So irresponsible for Dade County to be the only county in the state open tomorrow.
If they do get TS Force winds they will exceed what most counties allow a school bus to operate in.
Dumb..

I think most folks won't send their kids to school regardless!
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2004 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:12 pm

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue·
1h
Based upon RRFS-A and NHC official forecast, there's a decent chance the eye of Hurricane Helene goes right over Tallahassee. That would be bad.

Current NWS wind gusts expected of 112 mph to 125 mph across Wakulla and Leon.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2005 Postby Hurrilurker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:12 pm

I don't think the leveling off is going to last long, it's got too much momentum and too many favorable factors going for it (including moving away from land). Pressure will likely be in the mid to low 960s with the next recon flight.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2006 Postby Travorum » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:13 pm

2 hour old SAR pass, while wind speed hasn't increased throughout today structural quality definitely has:

Image
Platform: RCM-3
Acquisition Date: 2024-09-25 23:58:52 UTC
Storm Name: AL092024 / HELENE
Storm ID: AL09
Storm Center Longitude: -86.778
Storm Center Latitude: 22.761
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 49.108
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 64.99
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 74.53
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 61.89
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 60.39
RMax (nmi): 21.00 - 53.00
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2007 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:15 pm

VDM from 45 min ago. A 10 nm eye doesn't sound like the gigantic eye that many were expecting, quite the contrary in fact.

286
URNT12 KNHC 260209
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092024
A. 26/01:31:30Z
B. 22.90 deg N 086.73 deg W
C. 700 mb 2869 m
D. 972 mb
E. NA
F. OPEN ENE
G. C10

H. 51 kt
I. 228 deg 17 nm 01:26:30Z
J. 308 deg 61 kt
K. 226 deg 57 nm 01:06:00Z
L. 57 kt
M. 048 deg 44 nm 01:44:00Z
N. 139 deg 67 kt
O. 048 deg 55 nm 01:47:00Z
P. 12 C / 3052 m
Q. 15 C / 3045 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF303 1209A HELENE OB 26
MAX FL WIND 68 KT 129 / 50 NM 23:51:30Z
LAST WIND 03006KT AT 014 METERS
;
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2008 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:17 pm

That data supports 971 mb. Pressure falling even though the winds have not increased.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2009 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:17 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2010 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:20 pm


FYI, Weathernerds somehow stopped receiving data and your loop is 8 hours old.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2011 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:20 pm

Pretty intense rain in Stuart right now, heaviest downpour this summer. Wind is kicking too.lots of lightening.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2012 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That data supports 971 mb. Pressure falling even though the winds have not increased.


I wonder if there is a chance we get a lowering pressure that expands the wind field more strengthens the intensity. Similar to Ike.

Of course I may be grasping at straws cause the eye is forecast to go within 20 miles of my house… :eek:
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2013 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:23 pm

Looking visually more impressive on IR.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2014 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:23 pm

TallyTracker wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:That data supports 971 mb. Pressure falling even though the winds have not increased.


I wonder if there is a chance we get a lowering pressure that expands the wind field more strengthens the intensity. Similar to Ike.

Of course I may be grasping at straws cause the eye is forecast to go within 20 miles of my house… :eek:

It’s entirely possible that the pressure gradient never sharpens sufficiently to reach the forecasted intensity and the structure stays loose due to continued dry air entrainment. I don’t think that’s the most likely scenario, but it is possible.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2015 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That data supports 971 mb. Pressure falling even though the winds have not increased.


You would imagine the winds will catch up later or is this a scenario where you get low pressures but weaker winds because of how large it is?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2016 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:24 pm

TallyTracker wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:That data supports 971 mb. Pressure falling even though the winds have not increased.


I wonder if there is a chance we get a lowering pressure that expands the wind field more strengthens the intensity. Similar to Ike.

Of course I may be grasping at straws cause the eye is forecast to go within 20 miles of my house… :eek:


Another possibility is that the stage is being set. That happened with Ida, the pressure fell from 986 to 966 while the winds barely increased, then overnight the bottom fell out and it became a strong cat 4.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2017 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:26 pm

Kazmit wrote:
aspen wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:That is quite a healthy structure. Most of an eyewall is complete. IMHO

That’s a very large eye, still with an opening for dry air to sneak in (and IR suggests it’s still dealing with dry air). Would be a tough structure to get any RI from.

It’s crazy to think how the Gulf has had so many systems this year, yet all of them have struggled to varying degrees. All four of the Gulf hurricanes have had significant issues with even brief land interaction and/or dry air entrainment. Goes to show how SSTs aren’t everything (even though they can theoretically support a Rita 2.0 this year).

Dry air is the theme for this season. It may not be the inhibiting factor for genesis but it sure is for storms that already formed. In addition to the Gulf hurricanes, Ernesto also struggled with dry air which is why it never became a major. So that's every single hurricane of the season.


Some agreement but dry and stable air (and sinking air) has been compliments of a not super favorable MJO. Whether that’s distorted warmth or whatever is another question. I think we will have to look back on the western biased season yet semi weak La Niña as well. For most of the Gulf, a La Niña is dryer and warmer down here. And it was from late July until almost Francine which coincided with Phases 5 and 6. We have a few days in phase 8 and what? We have an incoming major. So there’s been a lot of competing forces - none of them overtly strong that complicated our understanding of what the season’s potential was. But give things a couple of days in a favorable phase and we have been consistently reminded what happens. Dry air included it’s been great we haven’t seen much Phases 2 and 3.
Last edited by Steve on Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2018 Postby psyclone » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:28 pm

This looks like the slow strengthening and organization phase that precedes a period of rapid intensification that yields us the biggies. It's a grungeycane...like Michael and Laura were. But it needs to take the next step and time is ticking
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2019 Postby canetracker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:28 pm

Praying everyone stays safe in Florida. Before I go to bed, I want to share this link for Recon viewing. You can view both missions at the same time using this link: https://aircraft.myfoxhurricane.com/recon/

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2020 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 9:30 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Looking visually more impressive on IR.

https://i.imgur.com/7DFy3Nw.jpeg


There still appears to be some dry air finding its way into the core. I wonder if the models have accounted for that. My guess is the dry air may account for much of the size increase in the near term.

If the dry air can be sealed off, then there is little to stop Helene from significant intensification. I’m struggling to see a Cat 5 out of this since conditions do not seem to be ideal. I’ve seen plenty of Cat 4s though in less than ideal conditions.
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