ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Storms tend to follow the convection, the high cold cloud tops on satellite.

Following the clouds takes Helene to Apalachee Bay, right where the models have been saying. This looks a lot better for Tampa Bay.

Unfortunately this area is extremely prone to storm surge(shallow bay), but relatively sparsely populated.

If I had to guess a landfall point, it would be St. Marks lighthouse ...

Not to dismiss the dangers of the storm, I was extremely concerned Helene would take a sharp right or NE turn resulting in catastrophic surge for Tampa Bay. While Tampa Bay is not out of the danger zone yet, I think I can sleep a little better tonight.

I do believe the folks on and around Apalachee Bay are well aware of the situation.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking visually more impressive on IR.

https://i.imgur.com/7DFy3Nw.jpeg

Looking better and better every hour.

[Poonwalker]

Eye is open on NE. If that doesn’t close it won’t strengthen rapidly.

[MetroMike]

Eye is open on NE. If that doesn’t close it won’t strengthen rapidly.

Is it not supposed to form an open eye at some point here?

[JaxGator]

Looking visually more impressive on IR.

https://i.imgur.com/7DFy3Nw.jpeg

There still appears to be some dry air finding its way into the core. I wonder if the models have accounted for that. My guess is the dry air may account for much of the size increase in the near term.

If the dry air can be sealed off, then there is little to stop Helene from significant intensification. I’m struggling to see a Cat 5 out of this since conditions do not seem to be ideal. I’ve seen plenty of Cat 4s though in less than ideal conditions.

I unfortunately can’t find any pics but I do remember 2 days ago that either the GFS or the hurricane models did show Helene almost exactly what she looks like now in the Southern Gulf, before strengthening began.

[Poonwalker]

Eye is open on NE. If that doesn’t close it won’t strengthen rapidly.

Is it not supposed to form an open eye at some point here?

There still a piece of dry air on the NE. You can see a tiny band of moisture though that might close it out. The next couple hours will be telling to see if indeed a full eye forms.

[Teban54]

Over the last few meso frames, you can see some tiny amounts of convection "outlining" the eastern eyewall, which was the part that was still open as of the VDM an hour ago.

[Frank P]

getting close to closing it..

[Zonacane]

I think Helene finally closed off an eye, you can see a thin line of towers on the eastern edge. Also looks to have completely blocked out that tongue of dry air finally.

[hipshot]

getting close to closing it..
https://i.ibb.co/cJm8L3r/goes16-wv-g16meso1-2.gif

It doesn't appear that it's forward speed is as high as I thought it was supposed to be. Maybe I'm thinking of the
speed as it gets picked up by that trough and tugged a little more NE.

[tigerz3030]

How is the track going compared to the forecasted track? Is it on the east side of it or the west side of the forecast track?

[tigerz3030]

How is the track going compared to the forecasted track? Is it on the east side of it or the west side of the forecast track?

[Canelaw99]

A lot of parents will probably keep their kids home tomorrow. I work in palm beach and everyone already decided their kids were going to be home tomorrow before they announced closures this afternoon.

So irresponsible for Dade County to be the only county in the state open tomorrow.
If they do get TS Force winds they will exceed what most counties allow a school bus to operate in.
Dumb..

I think most folks won't send their kids to school regardless!

Staff must still go in. There are parents who send kids regardless of what’s happening if school is open. There are teens who drive to school. Kids who walk and bike. Just potentially unsafe situations or else Miami Dade wouldn’t be under a TS warning. We are doing better than much of the state, granted, but some of these rain bands can pack a wallop!

[Pipelines182]

And this is the problem with dry air entrainment. No one can predict when it’ll get mixed out, we just don’t have the ability. I don’t know how many hurricanes we’ve seen with perfect conditions not able to do anything with it because of dry air in the core that takes days to mix out. I wouldn’t be surprised if Helene struggled until tomorrow afternoon, finally starts organizing, and everyone here is saying the classic “we’re lucky it didn’t have another day!” Lol

[Frank P]

HT now firing off on the southeast side, that should do the trick.

[Zonacane]

HT now firing off on the east side, that should do the trick.

Dual VHT by the looks of it, and there is probably more sprinkled in the southern eye as well. Not to mention they're going up right in the middle of that dry slot.

[Teban54]

HT now firing off on the southeast side, that should do the trick.

Yeah, I think she's finally ready to go. A small, borderline pinhole eye that will almost certainly be closed with that hot tower should make her more resistant to dry air intrusions (if there's even any more nearby).

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1839133017966551240

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1839133017966551240

This was from 2 hours ago, and the VDM at the time showed an elliptical eyewall. Given that the VDM just half an hour later had a "regular" circular eye, together with latest satellite trends, I think it's quite plausible that the inner eyewall has taken over.

[Frank P]

 https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1839133017966551240

I'd bet on the inner wall in this case.