ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/TeamBoltWX/status/1839135991417753909



Well if the Inner eyewall won then its not good

[Tyler Penland]

WNC flooding is going to be catastrophic when helene gets here. I'm already at 6.5" since yesterday afternoon with 4.9" of that coming today (3" in the last 90 minutes). Heard an unofficial report of 10" already above 5kft near Mt Mitchell.


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[HurricaneBelle]

"Pinhole eye", drink!

[Category5Kaiju]

Worth keeping in mind that whatever dry air issues Helene recently had may very well have been due to its close brush with the Yucatan, which isn't nesessarily the most humid place along the Atlantic Ocean. Now that it's going to be moving away and into the open Gulf, I'd expect dry air to be less of a problem until landfall.

[timmeister]

It's closing up, RI has begun. No matter what the NHC says, the minimum central pressure of 972 mb is a Catergory 2 hurricane. 965 mb to 979 is a Category 2 according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

[tigerz3030]

How is the track performing vs the forecasted track?

[cheezyWXguy]

 https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1839133017966551240

This was from 2 hours ago, and the VDM at the time showed an elliptical eyewall. Given that the VDM just half an hour later had a "regular" circular eye, together with latest satellite trends, I think it's quite plausible that the inner eyewall has taken over.

That structure is also the artifact of a loose, shallow convective structure observed throughout the day. Even in a large storm like this, deep convection in the core can turn that around fairly quickly and result in one of the bands winning out. I’d say it’s doing a pretty good job at the moment.

[HurricaneBelle]

It's closing up, RI has begun. No matter what the NHC says, the minimum central pressure of 972 mb is a Catergory 2 hurricane. 965 mb to 979 is a Category 2 according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Pressure is not part of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Wind is the only criterion.

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson

[Zonacane]

Man that eyewall is thick

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Starting to get that buzzsaw look.

[Hurricane2022]

Yikes!

[HurricaneBelle]

I heard a "buzzsaw". Drink!

[MississippiWx]

The recon data has been very telling as to why Helene hasn’t strengthened quickly. The system is very large and you can tell it by the pressure field. When you look on earlier pressure readings, the decline is more gradual. In a hurricane that is strengthening quickly with a tight core, you want to see the blue and red lines match each other. As you can see on the red line, the pressure falls are much more gradual than the winds. However, that has improved throughout the evening. The second image shows a sharper pressure falls, more in line with the winds. It’s still not where it needs to be, but this shows the pressure gradient is contracting.



upload pic

[timmeister]

It's closing up, RI has begun. No matter what the NHC says, the minimum central pressure of 972 mb is a Catergory 2 hurricane. 965 mb to 979 is a Category 2 according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Pressure is not part of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Wind is the only criterion.

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson

I know it's not, however the Hurricane Hunters could have missed the area that had Category 2 wind speeds. Pressure shows that Helene is strengthening and is close to or is Category 2.

[FLLurker32]

NHC made an ever so slight move back east on the latest track. The NE to NNE movement in the track is now more pronounced.

[ConvergenceZone]

Starting to get that buzzsaw look.

https://i.imgur.com/enHWT1H.jpeg

I think if someone doesn't thinks the storm isn't starting to really look good, then either they are looking at an outdated photo, or may want to get their eyeglass prescription updated. This is by far the best it's ever looked. I agree RI is getting more and more likely now.

[MetroMike]

It has slowed down slightly to 9 mph.Was at 12mph. Hope this is not a trend as could delay the pain along the trek.

[thickiminaj]

Call me crazy if you’d like - but it’s the tropics and there are so many unknowns and so much math and science that goes into this that we truly just don’t yet fully understand — especially when it comes to intensification.

That being said - I can’t help but continue to look toward the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption when things go so differently, and continue to go differently, than we would assume they would.

I really think this eruption had far reaching implications that we truly do not yet (or maybe never will unless some dedicated phd/thesis based student/researcher takes this up) understand.

Just something that has been at the forefront of my thoughts this season as things continue to feel slightly off.

[Poonwalker]

Wow. She closed off in short order. Thought I could leave for an hour

[Kazmit]

Yeah it's looking pretty gnarly now. On an unrelated note, Isaac unexpectedly formed in the Northern Atlantic.