ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I admit I know nothing about zoom earth app, but the last 5 NHC positions 3 hours apart show 86.2W 86.3W 86.4W 86.6W and 86.6W...
I just dont see an easterly tilt so wouldn't agree it's moving NNE no matter what earthly zoom azooms.

Well the 1am heading was at N or 5° so that’s basically NNNE, just east of due north. So there is some easterly component.

[GCANE]

EWRC is underway.
Recon is reporting an inner and outer eyewall.
Inner eye: 16nm dia.
Outer eye: 32nm dia.

[Visioen]

Rotating hot towers. All systems go.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking a lot more impressive this morning.

[Visioen]

EWRC is underway.
Recon is reporting an inner and outer eyewall.
Inner eye: 16nm dia.
Outer eye: 32nm dia.

My speculation is eyewall meld will happen.

[GCANE]

Based on latest Recon fix, it appears she is right on forecast track

[caneman]

Looks to be on the right side of cone. Let's see if that keeps up or not.

[GCANE]

She is pretty much draining the EPAC swamp

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[eastcoastFL]

Looks to be on the right side of cone. Let's see if that keeps up or not.

She definitely appears to be hugging the right side but overall on track.

[caneman]

Looks to be on the right side of cone. Let's see if that keeps up or not.

She definitely appears to be hugging the right side but overall on track.

Agree but if keeps up would be more like Perry landfall and coming closer to west coast. I believe Euro, gfs and icon all have it coming in closer to Perry

[eastcoastFL]

She is pretty much draining the EPAC swamp

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

What are you thinking about peninsula tornado threats?

[GCANE]

SPC has increased the tornado outbreak area.
Now from Jacksonville to Charleston

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[eastcoastFL]

Looks to be on the right side of cone. Let's see if that keeps up or not.

She definitely appears to be hugging the right side but overall on track.

Agree but if keeps up would be more like Perry landfall and coming closer to west coast. I believe Euro, gfs and icon all have it coming in closer to Perry

Looking at her windfield and how far hurricane force winds are from the center the west coast is going to be in for a rough day. Tampa could see some extreme winds as she passes.

[eastcoastFL]

That 967 drop was a good bit east of the prior.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... HELENE.png

[GCANE]

She is pretty much draining the EPAC swamp

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

What are you thinking about peninsula tornado threats?

Not seeing any helicity with the storm yet and CAPE is relatively low in the GoM.
As of now, doesn't look too bad for the state.
Not to say there could be some EF1's as feeder bands roll ashore.
I think SPC is correct for late today and tomorrow concerning GA and SC.
There will be a massive shear setup and high CAPE there.

If I see something develop today for tornadoes I will surely post it.

[caneman]

She definitely appears to be hugging the right side but overall on track.

Agree but if keeps up would be more like Perry landfall and coming closer to west coast. I believe Euro, gfs and icon all have it coming in closer to Perry

Looking at her windfield and how far hurricane force winds are from the center the west coast is going to be in for a rough day. Tampa could see some extreme winds as she passes.

Agree and I fear more than most thought including myself. Last night I told my family maybe 45 or 55 but NDG posted that up to 90 mph gusts based on Euro up to 100 miles from center so a 20 or 30 mile shift east is big not to mention surge potential.

[caneman]

That 967 drop was a good bit east of the prior.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... HELENE.png

NE turn seems to have started a little bit sooner. Lending creedance to Euro, gfs and Icon. Wonder if NHC will put more weight on these than they have been.

[eastcoastFL]

She is pretty much draining the EPAC swamp

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

What are you thinking about peninsula tornado threats?

Not seeing any helicity with the storm yet and CAPE is relatively low in the GoM.
As of now, doesn't look too bad for the state.
Not to say there could be some EF1's as feeder bands roll ashore.
I think SPC is correct for late today and tomorrow concerning GA and SC.
There will be a massive shear setup and high CAPE there.

If I see something develop today for tornadoes I will surely post it.

That’s good to hear. Appreciate the update!

[GCANE]

Man, that setup when she just crosses the FL/GA border is insane.
The cutoff low to her west and UL anticyclone to her east.
This will create a massive UL Jet.
Could spawn some very significant tornadoes then.
SE GA and SC could see a major, destructive tornado outbreak.

[eastcoastFL]

HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS
AND STORM SURGE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES