ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tallywx]

I don’t know who Mike is but I’d follow the NHC, always. Anyone in Tally needs to be prepared for a catastrophic hurricane at this point.

Mike lives in clearwater has his own YT channel. Has a great following. He won an award for helping the community with weather info. he is not a met but knows all the top mets and tv mets they all respect him. he is on the road now chasing Helene. he is not a young man but maybe late 30s he has a family. he’s good friends with denis philips and mike clay. he has been doing this over 20 years so he is well respected. He doesn’t overhype cat 5nwas in the cards and he will adjust accordingly. he wants people to respect this storm and get out of harms way. but yes he is humble says listen to nhc he is just an enthusiast

He was also busy posting photos from the bat saying he was going Cat 4 last night and Tallahassee has no idea what’s coming.

[tallywx]

Mike lives in clearwater has his own YT channel. Has a great following. He won an award for helping the community with weather info. he is not a met but knows all the top mets and tv mets they all respect him. he is on the road now chasing Helene. he is not a young man but maybe late 30s he has a family. he’s good friends with denis philips and mike clay. he has been doing this over 20 years so he is well respected. He doesn’t overhype cat 5nwas in the cards and he will adjust accordingly. he wants people to respect this storm and get out of harms way. but yes he is humble says listen to nhc he is just an enthusiast

He was also busy posting photos from the bat saying he was going Cat 4 last night and Tallahassee has no idea what’s coming.

Tallahassee wouldn’t know what’s coming from even a direct cat 2 hit. They’ve never recorded a sustained hurricane force wind in history.

[xironman]

Neither plane is running SFMR now, any idea why?

[Keldeo1997]

[Nimbus]

He was also busy posting photos from the bat saying he was going Cat 4 last night and Tallahassee has no idea what’s coming.

Tallahassee wouldn’t know what’s coming from even a direct cat 2 hit. They’ve never recorded a sustained hurricane force wind in history.

If there was an unofficial and unexpected shift east in track, Tallahassee would be on the weak side of the eyewall which would make a huge difference given her forward speed. Even the EPS is forecasting SSE winds for buoy 42036 off Tampa so there is not that much wiggle room. I doubt Helene will bother with an eyewall conversion cycle since a 32 mile eye gives her plenty of breathing room for 36 hours over water but..

Follow the official forecast.

[chris_fit]

Wow, she's so much weaker on the west side.

[ronjon]

Helene has started her NE movement and last couple hours the eye seems to have jogged NE. Watching now her angle of approach to Pinellas county and how close she'll get to the nature coast. Key West is reporting wind gusts to 64 mph and the storm is 200 miles west. Euro, GFS, and ICON all landfall in Taylor County near 11 pm tonight.

[Nimbus]

Wow, she's so much weaker on the west side.

https://i.imgur.com/TpK3EZ7.png

Do you have a link for that recon history with the forecast track graphic?

[Janie2006]

I need advise. My grown kids live in Tallahassee. They follow Mike's Weather page ( I don't, been a member here for 20 years.) They are freaking out because he's saying a catastrophic CAT 5. I told them don't listen to him just follow NHC or come here. What are your thoughts on this Mike's weather?

Well, I don’t know. Where does Mike live? Perhaps it’s really nice out today.

Seriously though, National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service Tallahassee. It’s their best source of information.

[Keldeo1997]

CAT 2 now.

[sponger]

I am having a hard time understanding why the NHC is sticking to its track for this long when there are major models showing otherwise. Reminds me of Irma when then continued to insist it would stay in the gulf while Euro showed up the spine of Fl. We will see but they did the same with Debbie. They insisted it was moving North while it moved 50-60 miles East It is lazy to say it's in the cone. Lets see if they are correct this time.

[eastcoastFL]

I need advise. My grown kids live in Tallahassee. They follow Mike's Weather page ( I don't, been a member here for 20 years.) They are freaking out because he's saying a catastrophic CAT 5. I told them don't listen to him just follow NHC or come here. What are your thoughts on this Mike's weather?

I don’t know who Mike is but I’d follow the NHC, always. Anyone in Tally needs to be prepared for a catastrophic hurricane at this point.

Mike lives in clearwater has his own YT channel. Has a great following. He won an award for helping the community with weather info. he is not a met but knows all the top mets and tv mets they all respect him. he is on the road now chasing Helene. he is not a young man but maybe late 30s he has a family. he’s good friends with denis philips and mike clay. he has been doing this over 20 years so he is well respected. He doesn’t overhype cat 5nwas in the cards and he will adjust accordingly. he wants people to respect this storm and get out of harms way. but yes he is humble says listen to nhc he is just an enthusiast

Thanks for the info. I don’t get on YouTube or social media much, the only storm videos I ever really watch are Levi’s on tropical tidbits. But I will definetly check it out sometime. Everyone should respect the power of this storm. It’s going to be felt far and wide for hundreds and hundreds of miles. Looking at recon right now they are reporting 100kt+ FL winds now to the east. So it’s ramping up.

[ColdMiser123]

104 kt flight level wind in the east eyewall - supports 94 kt at the surface. More sharp pressure falls as well. Strong case this is now a Category 2.

[eastcoastFL]

I am having a hard time understanding why the NHC is sticking to its track for this long when there are major models showing otherwise. Reminds me of Irma when then continued to insist it would stay in the gulf while Euro showed up the spine of Fl. We will see but they did the same with Debbie. They insisted it was moving North while it moved 50-60 miles East It is lazy to say it's in the cone. Lets see if they are correct this time.

Nhc is reporting a NNE movement at 15°, it’s on the right side of the cone but still inside the margin for error.

[chris_fit]

Wow, she's so much weaker on the west side.

https://i.imgur.com/TpK3EZ7.png

Do you have a link for that recon history with the forecast track graphic?

I'm using Google Earth KML found on this page: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/google_earth/

[Kohlecane]

Man, that setup when she just crosses the FL/GA border is insane.
The cutoff low to her west and UL anticyclone to her east.
This will create a massive UL Jet.
Could spawn some very significant tornadoes then.
SE GA and SC could see a major, destructive tornado outbreak.

Yeah I'm here near Beaufort that's my concern

[sponger]

104 kt flight level wind in the east eyewall - supports 94 kt at the surface. More sharp pressure falls as well. Strong case this is now a Category 2.

Here we go! Let's hope the intensity forecast is correct. Now if she can nudge just a bit to the right of Tallahassee! Going to be a massively destructive storm but a Cat 4 at landfall would be a surge nightmare.

[TomballEd]

104 kt flight level wind in the east eyewall - supports 94 kt at the surface. More sharp pressure falls as well. Strong case this is now a Category 2.

HDOB with 0 wind supports 963.8 mb. Looking at satellite, I think this gets closer to Tampa than people think. Landfall will be further N, but with a large wind field, I have concerns affects in Tampa may be more significant than people think.

[xironman]

NOAA 961.6 with 16 kts

[Owasso]

962mb