ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bamagirl2408]

Good morning- watching from Mobile. Not sure if any of you have this channel but recent subscriber to youtube tv and they have Fox Weather that is like the TWC but better. Less hype. Mike Seidel, Bryan Norcross and others on it. Less theatrics. Enjoyed much better during Francine coverage. No one pretending they cannot stand while citizens walk dogs in the background.

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

[GCANE]

Helicity just ramped up big time across S FL.
No wonder the tornado watch.
SPC is on it.

[Michele B]

104 kt flight level wind in the east eyewall - supports 94 kt at the surface. More sharp pressure falls as well. Strong case this is now a Category 2.

HDOB with 0 wind supports 963.8 mb. Looking at satellite, I think this gets closer to Tampa than people think. Landfall will be further N, but with a large wind field, I have concerns affects in Tampa may be more significant than people think.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExb2g5Ym82eGI1MnE2Y2U4amMyeHZsMGJtZnMxd2hpczQ4dTJjMjVraCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/MOi7kYmlTpVxvOSUo8/giphy.gif

Im in Manatee County 30 miles south of Tampa and judging by the wind gusts we are getting already I'm a bit concerned

Looking at radar, there's a huge feeder band way out to the east of the storm (that's what you're probably feeling now). It just went through our area (I'm just east of you in DeSoto) and then I expect it to calm down for a few hours.

[Michele B]

I do see NE motion, or am i just seeing things now? I know it's supposed to be doing this, but..

It’s moving NE.

I guess the key is at about 2pm it's supposed to go more northward, if it doesn't, then more rain on the west coast

It would be good news for Tally if it continued to move more easterly.

[johngaltfla]

Based on my calculation from the recon fixes on Helene during between 1:48 AM & 6:38 AM, Helene's average heading has been at 29 degrees at 12.6 mph.

If that confirms for the next 4 hours, then the original ICON solution from a few days ago with Cedar Key area would be correct.

[GCANE]

East coast of FL from Jacksonville to Lake O has the larger chance for tornadoes.
Looking dicey for Jacksonville to Savannah with large shear and 4000 CAPE offshore

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[gatorcane]

Based on my calculation from the recon fixes on Helene during between 1:48 AM & 6:38 AM, Helene's average heading has been at 29 degrees at 12.6 mph.

If that confirms for the next 4 hours, then the original ICON solution from a few days ago with Cedar Key area would be correct.

The ECMWF and GFS have showed this more NE movement before turning it more NNE later today. The NHC track doesn’t show that for some reason.

[SoupBone]

Based on my calculation from the recon fixes on Helene during between 1:48 AM & 6:38 AM, Helene's average heading has been at 29 degrees at 12.6 mph.

What was the forecast heading at this point? 29 degrees is NE.

[Majek]

Good morning- watching from Mobile. Not sure if any of you have this channel but recent subscriber to youtube tv and they have Fox Weather that is like the TWC but better. Less hype. Mike Seidel, Bryan Norcross and others on it. Less theatrics. Enjoyed much better during Francine coverage. No one pretending they cannot stand while citizens walk dogs in the background.

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

Mike Seidel was on the Weather Channel when that happened. Cantore's acting was covering Ida

[Frank P]

Good morning- watching from Mobile. Not sure if any of you have this channel but recent subscriber to youtube tv and they have Fox Weather that is like the TWC but better. Less hype. Mike Seidel, Bryan Norcross and others on it. Less theatrics. Enjoyed much better during Francine coverage. No one pretending they cannot stand while citizens walk dogs in the background.

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

I never watch TWC but I might check out FOX weather, I like to watch the local news of the affected areas, videos from webcams, and especially those crazy storm trackers. Trackers really get some incredible videos of the storms as they come inland. Hope they are extra cautious in the low-lying areas of the Big Bend, and probably need to stay out of that area.

[GCANE]

Radar indicated tornado SW end of Lake O

[chris_fit]

Saved Loop. Amazing the trust in NHC and all other Meteorologists on the confidence this will not bee-line to Tampa area and instead bend to the left. Reminds me a bit of Floyd and the infamous turn it made.

[tolakram]

I said I had Ike vibes last night, not getting any better. Giant lumbering storm with strong winds well away from the center. I hope people don't underestimate how even an ugly Helene is going to bring a lot of chaos to the coast AND well inland. The Saffir Simpson scale is useless with these giant storms IMO.

[GCANE]

Saturated eye

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 6-1042.png

[TampaWxLurker]

I said it last night in the model thread, but let's see if she can "thread the needle", so to speak, as far as track goes. If she follows just east of the official track, she can landfall around western Taylor County, just east of the mouth of the Aucillla River.

Tallahassee would end up on the western side and avoid the worst of it, and it wouldn't get quite close enough to the west coast where surge gets TOO much worse down in the Tampa area.

[LandoWill]

at 8am , they moved the now... till 2pm shift east. However they sticking with their at 2pm it going more NORTH then it is now. If they are wrong, they will have to move their final big line. https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions curious to see what they do, if they need to do that.

[caneman]

Woke up relieved here in Tally. Same eyewall problems from last night persisted into the morning. The window for RI is rapidly closing and it still doesn’t look close to having that symmetry and tight eyewall for a true boom.

Knock on wood but feeling pretty confident we avoid a high end major.

Huh? Are you hitting the sauce early? Lol

[GCANE]

Should see the stadium effect later today
Prayers for all those effected by this beast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

[WaveBreaking]

Sunrise