ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Based on my calculation from the recon fixes on Helene during between 1:48 AM & 6:38 AM, Helene's average heading has been at 29 degrees at 12.6 mph.

If that confirms for the next 4 hours, then the original ICON solution from a few days ago with Cedar Key area would be correct.

The ECMWF and GFS have showed this more NE movement before turning it more NNE later today. The NHC track doesn’t show that for some reason.

Maybe the 11 a.m. update will revise it. They still have it at 15 degrees, but who knows. Recon will keep this group ahead of the game, that's for certain.

[GCANE]

Looks like she is strong enough now to push back that trof

[aspen]

I’m still floored by the massive extent of Helene’s TS force winds. Consequently, the NHC’s peak surge estimates around the landfall point keep going up. Even if Helene’s struggles yesterday and its large core result in it underperforming intensity-wise (like “only” a 100-105 kt Cat 3 at landfall instead of the 4 everyone was expecting), it’s still going to be extremely impactful.

Also thanks to its Fujiwhara interaction with the ULL over the Midwest and it sticking around for a while, I don’t think I’m gonna have another chance to see comet Tsuchinshan-Atlas before it gets too low in the morning sky. Rats.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

She is pretty much draining the EPAC swamp

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

She’s very hungry, I see

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1839281832191471924

[xironman]

NOAA's center looks NNE, of course the vortex can bounce around in a dynamic storm

[Michele B]

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

I thought it was Cantore, too.

So if it was Seidel, was he canned? Is that why he's on Fox Weather now?

I thought he was cut sometime around Covid in a layoff. No idea!

\Bamagirl,

Is that YT channel (for FoxWeather) a pay channel or just subscriber?

[caneman]

This storm may yet go east of forecast with all the S2Kers pushing it in that direction.

It isn't pushing anything. On the right side of cone would mean far more effects for other areas to include hurricane gusts and worse surge. Not really that funny for those living in flood zone a. Including family living in low lying Oldsmar and many other areas. For the record. I've been saying Cedar Key to perry so I wouldn't call that cheerleading.

[NDG]

NOAA's center looks NNE, of course the vortex can bounce around in a dynamic storm

That's why is good to calculate the heading in between the fixes over a number of hours vs just 1.5 hours.

Which by the way, entering the last NOAA fix compared to the one from the AF recon at 1:30 AM still gives me a 29 deg average heading.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IR really popping off, eye is rapidly clearing.

[caneman]

Looks like she is strong enough now to push back that trof

Strong enough usually skews right

[technikal]

When you go to bed expecting a primed and ready cat 4 in the middle of RI, waking up to its current look is a relief lol. Still fully prepping for a bad storm but it doesn’t have the look of a potential cat 5 right now, with its current structure and time remaining for RI.

Seeing this post followed by one with this image is the height of irony.

https://i.postimg.cc/hj79Mztd/20240926-092700-AL092024-ssmis-F18-color37-62kts-100p00-res1p0-cr100-ar-H91-bg-Infrared-Gray.png

It is ironic. I guess we’ll see. Conditions have looked favorable for RI since it left the Yucatán Peninsula, hasn’t started yet. I’m closely watching for when it begins. People are overly bullish on these forums, it’s natural. It’s a bad, highly destructive storm. But with only ~15 hours till landfall, imo progression to cat 5 would be legendary at this point.

[Sciencerocks]

Reminds me of wilma in the eastern Gulf as it was making landfall over Florida...Possible cat3 but very larger hurricane with probably 40-60 nmi wide eye.

[WaveBreaking]

Half of the eyewall is lighting up with VHTs

[wx98]

Actually, it was Mike Seidel who was videoed struggling with the winds while the two boys walking normally in the background with no troubles standing up


Well Dang!!!! in my mind it was Cantore! Still liking the new channel discovery for coverage.

I thought it was Cantore, too.

So if it was Seidel, was he canned? Is that why he's on Fox Weather now?

Supposedly he was “part time” and they let a bunch of part timers go.

[xironman]

NOAA's center looks NNE, of course the vortex can bounce around in a dynamic storm

That's why is good to calculate the heading in between the fixes over a number of hours vs just 1.5 hours.

Which by the way, entering the last NOAA fix compared to the one from the AF recon at 1:30 AM still gives me a 29 deg average heading.

That would take all the fun out of wobble watching

[LandoWill]

ninja shift by NHC.

[ronjon]

This storm may yet go east of forecast with all the S2Kers pushing it in that direction.

It isn't pushing anything. One the right side of cone would mean far more effects for other areas to include hurricane gusts and worse surge. Not really that funny for those living in flood zone a. Including family living in low lying Oldsmar and many other areas. For the record. I've been saying Cedar Key to perry so I wouldn't call that cheerleading.

Nobody is -removed- here. When you have our best models such as GFS, Euro, Euro AI, ICON, and now GFS ensembles pointing toward a closer approach to the Florida west coast you start paying attention - particularly us posters on the west side of the state.

[tolakram]

When you go to bed expecting a primed and ready cat 4 in the middle of RI, waking up to its current look is a relief lol. Still fully prepping for a bad storm but it doesn’t have the look of a potential cat 5 right now, with its current structure and time remaining for RI.

Seeing this post followed by one with this image is the height of irony.

https://i.postimg.cc/hj79Mztd/20240926-092700-AL092024-ssmis-F18-color37-62kts-100p00-res1p0-cr100-ar-H91-bg-Infrared-Gray.png

It is ironic. I guess we’ll see. Conditions have looked favorable for RI since it left the Yucatán Peninsula, hasn’t started yet. I’m closely watching for when it begins. People are overly bullish on these forums, it’s natural. It’s a bad, highly destructive storm. But with only ~15 hours till landfall, imo progression to cat 5 would be legendary at this point.

Who is predicting cat 5? Ever? High cat 3 or low cat 4 is all that was ever reasonable.

IMO the bigger the storm is the lower the category will be and the higher the damage. This is why I think Saffir Simpson is useless for large storms, except to say that is this beast actually reaches cat 4 the damage will be extraordinary just from the surge alone.

[Steve]

Half of the eyewall is lighting up with VHTs

https://i.imgur.com/H8q7dnJ.gif

It’s not done that’s for sure.