ATL: HELENE - Models

[Steve]

FV3 Hires is complete. It’s not a tropical model but it’s got 960 Taylor/Dixie Co so say Crystal River, Steinharchee Perry Cedar Keyish. It’s got 970s through GA and even 980s in Kentucky. How will this model do? Helene will become a southeastern trough until the pattern changes so remnants of Helene gonna be around for a while.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92600&fh=0

[Powellrm]

Anybody know why so many tv stations and social media account seem to be pushing the GRAF model. (What even is that?)

It’s been a while since I read it but I think the weather company was some weather tech nerds who partnered with IBM and possibly NVDA technology to put together a physics oriented modeling solution that incorporated AI. I don’t think it’s an exclusively radar derived product your local weather station might have - like vipir or whatever. This is their words and not an independent 3rd party analysis. So it’s biased. But it’s interesting. And it’s also had some pretty decent successes over the last couple years and some head scratchers as well.

https://www.weathercompany.com/global-h ... recasting/

Here’s when it came out in 2018 with Weather Underground describing what it was supposed to be.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-I ... ting-Model

Again, great info. Thanks for posting.

[Bocadude85]

0z ICON still into Taylor county

[LandoWill]

So they just changed the angle of approach to landfall. From say parallel new port richey north it's more of an angle. You can see the track change at https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[FLLurker32]

0z ICON still into Taylor county

Little to no change between 18z and 0z. Maintained location and pressure. It’s adamant.

NHC very slightly ticked East on the 11pm advisory.

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs a bit (10mb) stronger, but same track as 18z

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1839152518137340404

[FLLurker32]

0z gfs a bit (10mb) stronger, but same track as 18z
https://i.imgur.com/Af1AyRs.png

Still at 975mb as it enters the Smokey mountains. There would be a lot of landslides, river and creek flooding. They haven’t seen anything like that since Hugo.

[chaser1]

How could I really ask them? Are you being serious? It's just a curious question. Maybe they are relying on the FSU model. I have zero clue and just curious. I just don't know if sometimes they rely on one some models more than others for one reason or another. Maybe things have changed but I remember not so long ago when the Euro spoke people listened as an example. Wanting to learn and certainly not wanting to challenge them as they are almost always spot on. Maybe they are so skilled that they have more knowledge than models?

Send them an email or letter?

You seriously can do that?

Sure?! I would email Pasch. I always found him to be friendly and quite cerebral. Man, I remember the days when I would simply walk into the Hurricane Center across from U.M., head up to the 5th floor (if memory serves me), and pretty much chat with whichever Hurricane Forecaster that was on duty. Of course, there were some like Max or Miles who were less enthusiastic about visitors LOL, but they were generally patient with us nonetheless. It was certainly a very different time back then.

[Beef Stew]

0z HAFS-B is complete, and it's one of the "weaker" runs today. Landfall between St. Marks and Perry at roughly 125 kts and 937 mb, and the model still has Helene strengthening right up until landfall.

[Beef Stew]

0z HAFS-A also is weaker this run, comparatively speaking. 114 kt landfall near St. Marks in the low 940's.

[FLLurker32]

0z HAFS-A and HMON both moved a hair to the west, slightly weaker.

[FLLurker32]

0z HWRF - Landfall track unchanged, 20mb weaker at 938mb.

[ElectricStorm]

Of the four hurricane models, the HAFS-A has 963mb at 6z which is 1am CDT which will be close to the next recon pass. The other three are all even lower than that. I'm not convinced it's that low yet so this could be lagging behind the hurricane models a bit (pending recon) which all have a low-mid range Cat 4 at peak

[NDG]

Latest 0z Euro joins the GFS and ICON in being persistent of landfall in Taylor County into Tyler FL.

[Bocadude85]

Latest 0z Euro joins the GFS and ICON of landfall in Taylor County into Tyler FL.

https://i.imgur.com/45VF8Rz.png

If this track comes to fruition then we may be looking at record breaking surge into Cedar Key.. possibly even the nature coast..

[caneman]

Latest 0z Euro joins the GFS and ICON of landfall in Taylor County into Tyler FL.

https://i.imgur.com/45VF8Rz.png

If this track comes to fruition then we may be looking at record breaking surge into Cedar Key.. possibly even the nature coast..

Tampa Bay as well. Angle of approach will be perhaps 30 miles closer plus more likelihood of hurricane force gusts

[Bocadude85]

Latest 0z Euro joins the GFS and ICON of landfall in Taylor County into Tyler FL.

https://i.imgur.com/45VF8Rz.png

If this track comes to fruition then we may be looking at record breaking surge into Cedar Key.. possibly even the nature coast..

Tampa Bay as well. Angle of approach will be perhaps 30 miles closer plus more likelihood of hurricane force gusts

Yes need to watch when the NE motion stars and for how long.,she may be already moving east of north.

[Steve]

HAFSA and B with more realistic pressures around 956 and 952. HWRF and HMON are both much lower. Possible learning experience that they too go ape**** until we get closer to landfall where they will adjust more to reality. NAM 12km also 950s.

[tolakram]

Hurricane models