ATL: HELENE - Models

[tolakram]

GFS


Euro


ICON

[InfernoFlameCat]

HWRF shows the storm struggling to strengthen for the next 3-6 hours. But after that it drops is by 18 mb in 6 hours. It seems to be panning out so far with Helene struggling to strengthen for the last 3 hours.. Not saying it will get its act together soon but that is a possibility.

[NDG]

12z ICON shifted a little to the east making landfall on the border of Taylor and Dixie Counties.

[wzrgirl1]

Can somebody please post the fsu experimental global forecast models....it was one page with 5 or 6 models. I had it but I seen to have lost it.

[fwbbreeze]

I believe this is the link you are looking for....but the site has been extremely slow to load recently. Probably due to site traffic.

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[SoupBone]

12z ICON shifted a little to the east making landfall on the border of Taylor and Dixie Counties.

https://i.imgur.com/qp6tXzO.png

This would be a big deal for Tallahassee.

[cycloneye]

The question now that Helene has made landfall at 140 mph is, which model(s) did the best on track and intensity? I say ICON.

[Beef Stew]

The question now that Helene has made landfall at 140 mph is, which model(s) did the best on track and intensity? I say ICON.

I think the ICON really nailed the track for Helene so far. We'll see if Helene continues to track further east in GA like it's suggesting.

[ThunderForce]

I'm really not sure why, but the TVCN was consistently a fair bit west of where the majority of the global models' runs (GFS, Euro, ICON, etc.) had this. The only models I can remember being closer to the TVCN's track are the Canadian GEM model and HMON.

The TVCN doesn't take any consensus from ICON as far as I know, but it did take from AVNI (GFS), CEM2 (GEM?), AEMI (Euro?), UKXI (UK) and CTCI (GEM?) as well as the hurricane models HWRF, HMON, and the two HAFS models. I think they're interpolated, but strangely they were consistently west of where the majority of the models' actual runs had them. I think AVNI was even west of most of the GFS ensembles.

So, the interpolated models seemingly nudged the TVCN, which the NHC often uses for track guidance, further west than the actual model runs. It's really confusing.

[eastcoastFL]

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/K29MLTe.png

Euro
https://i.imgur.com/z17U3pW.png

ICON
https://i.imgur.com/GwxRF4p.png

Man, ICON was on the money!

[REDHurricane]

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/K29MLTe.png

Euro
https://i.imgur.com/z17U3pW.png

ICON
https://i.imgur.com/GwxRF4p.png

Man, ICON was on the money!

It's safe to say by now that ICON is by far the best model for predicting these weird/complex Gulf setups, just over the past 2-3 years it's been nearly spot on with nearly every hurricane landfall on the Gulf coast even when the big 3 models agree on a different solution

[tolakram]

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/K29MLTe.png

Euro
https://i.imgur.com/z17U3pW.png

ICON
https://i.imgur.com/GwxRF4p.png

Man, ICON was on the money!

It's safe to say by now that ICON is by far the best model for predicting these weird/complex Gulf setups, just over the past 2-3 years it's been nearly spot on with nearly every hurricane landfall on the Gulf coast even when the big 3 models agree on a different solution

Yea, maybe. The GFS has also been good in this area, especially with sheared systems. I think it's safe to say it belongs in the suite of models that help decide track, and it might be for all I know.

[StormPyrate]

My faith in the NHC is a tad shaken
they refused to come off that west solution in the face of model guidance, and were just wrong on the track of this thing even now.

[tolakram]

My faith in the NHC is a tad shaken
they refused to come off that west solution in the face of model guidance, and were just wrong on the track of this thing even now.

Before or after landfall? Can you show the error you're concerned about? My gripe is 12 hour forecast points.

[StormPyrate]

My faith in the NHC is a tad shaken
they refused to come off that west solution in the face of model guidance, and were just wrong on the track of this thing even now.

Before or after landfall? Can you show the error you're concerned about? My gripe is 12 hour forecast points.

Before mostly, this thing followed the models much closer (Icon for example) and yet the NHC track was always to the west, and in the end the storm was always to the right.
Now I will say NHC did do a good job with overall outcomes, our storm surge and winds were almost exactly as predicted.
But I still cannot figure out why NHC would not budge off that west track in spite ofall the models to the right.

[jlauderdal]

My faith in the NHC is a tad shaken
they refused to come off that west solution in the face of model guidance, and were just wrong on the track of this thing even now.

They are suffering from the same thing the models are, data overload. The euro has went backwards and there arent too many gfs lovers on this board, it isnt reliable. The first model too look at is the ICON for the next gulf system, thats where we are at with guidance while facing a backloaded season. The ensembles are very excited about the next one so the ICON will get another gulf test.