ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

:oops: Someone teach me what I’m doing wrong.

I just wanna show you guys this video but actually post the video not the link to it.

This is the link to the video I’ve been trying to post to show y’all Helene’s actual movement overlay on the NHC track to show east movement.

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

You got it. It’s img /img to link a hosted photo or video. Pretty cool so thanks.

I think what they are asking is.. where is the website that shows it like that, i think we all want to see it lol

My bad. I thought they were asking how to load the moving image and not just the link. Someone else on the same page had asked about the link to the color satellite with the 3D visible overlay. So I must have gotten them confused.

I’m wondering if we get a final burst at landfall like a couple of other recent storms have done. It will be during DMAX so it could blast off coming in.

[TallyTracker]

With the east shifts, it’s looking more like St. Marks to Keaton Beach for landfall. If I had to guess, Econfina River State Park is my best guess for ground zero landfall.

[aspen]

Wow the NW side of Helene is so weak. No hurricane-force FL winds this pass.

Asymmetrical wind profile and a large core will make any further intensification difficult. I’m wondering if it’ll even hit MH status.

[Pipelines182]

He is still chasing for the best spot.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839304666565456245

I think that's probably for the best lmao. Had the storm really come into Tallahasse, you couldn't pay me to go where Josh is. If something went wrong with that building, it would pretty much just be gameover for him with the surge.

One of those chasers is eventually going to get killed by storm surge on one of these chases. Does anyone remember that chaser on Michael that had to abandon their vehicle because it started floating and broke into house in Mexico beach for cover? I thought for sure they were goners.

[Knight85]

Sure looks like its headed for 85W in a hurry, and it wasn't on track to go that far east until almost Tampa latitude.

[Woofde]

No flight level hurricane winds on the most recent recon pass through the NW quad. The East side is where all the punch is.

[kevin]

While the western half of Helene is still very weak, the eastern half keeps surprising me with its large wind field. Recon just measured 92 kt FL winds about 100 miles from the center. That's ~cat 2 winds 80 nm to the NE, a much larger wind field than NHCs current 50 nm extent of 64 kt winds to the NE. No matter how strong Helene gets (cat 2/3/4) the biggest issue imo will be the surge which is most likely gonna be unprecedented for some areas.

[Pipelines182]

No flight level hurricane winds on the most recent recon pass through the NW quad. The East side is where all the punch is.

The faster the storm is moving, the higher the difference between the two sides become. I wouldn't be surprised if at landfall there was a full category or even 2 difference between the east and west sides. Fortunately the east eyewall is forecast to hit land that's nothing but swamp land.

[MetsIslesNoles]

NW quad is weakest by farrr. If this goes E of Tally, damage hopefully will be minimal there.

My guess would be Hermine like. Which still absolutely sucked.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Exactly, except for a few people foolish enough not to evacuate. The impact on millions will be little changed. I can only imagine the power out numbers tomorrow. I am going to guess 6 million. Any other bets?

Was trying to explain this to my wife. Ike was not predicted and our area way up here experienced gusts to 70+mph which knocked out numerous trees and left a lot without power. If that happens again the number could be very high well away from landfall.

Ike was no joke lots of downed trees...even Beryl Cat 1 downed a ton of trees I feel like alot of people are underestimating this storm

People also forget not all hurricanes are built equal. Ike didn't 'seem' as strong as other hurricanes until landfall but he was a monster and was absolutely huge and did way more damage than I think many were expecting. Monster sized storms like Ike and Helene end up doing much more damage even when they aren't as strong in terms of category's as compared to other storms that are smaller.

[karenfromheaven]

He is still chasing for the best spot.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839304666565456245

I think that's probably for the best lmao. Had the storm really come into Tallahasse, you couldn't pay me to go where Josh is. If something went wrong with that building, it would pretty much just be gameover for him with the surge.

One of those chasers is eventually going to get killed by storm surge on one of these chases. Does anyone remember that chaser on Michael that had to abandon their vehicle because it started floating and broke into house in Mexico beach for cover? I thought for sure they were goners.

I agree. I was just remembering that video. I used to drive by right where he was parked at the Marina, and it was terrifying to watch the Gulf rise up out of nowhere and float his truck away. Then he left the vehicle and all we saw was an empty truck floating along with the windshield wipers going back and forth.

[LandoWill]

I am curious what they say at 11am, if it's not heading more northerly at 2pm like they predicted it to do - the horseshoe beach might be in play

[technikal]

I would definitely be nervous if I was in Tampa about the most recent sat trends. After a big jog east, it’s looking like another big wobble east. These motions will make all the difference.

At my location in Tally, starting to feel a bit less worried as the likelihood of us catching the weak NW side becomes higher.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not seeing a lot of evidence this thing has intensified on recon... but it's definitely growing in size.

Honestly this reminds me a lot of the old arguments we used to have over the SSHS being replaced with another scale. It's Cat 2 wind but with Cat 3/4 impacts due to surge and rain.

[thickiminaj]

So these NHC people are pretty good at the track these days, huh? I don't have any data on it. But, part of the fun here is the questioning of the forecast. Yeah, sometimes it's based on achey knees and -removed-. But, sometimes it's founded on some solid principles or data gathering. Back to my point - it seems that the NHC forecast is amazingly accurate these days. From the delayed naming of Helene to the east / west wobbles, NHC is dialed in. Keep questioning! But good luck being right lol.

Hi there! Hope this helps you and others. You can see the errors and the hours/days out the error is attributed to. As you can see, NHC official reigns supreme. That human aspect with the machine learning information still, at least for now, is the best we’ve got.

[thickiminaj]

Hmmm. I clearly do not know what I’m doing posting images and videos.

Here’s a link instead to: Hi there! Hope this helps you and others. You can see the errors and the hours/days out the error is attributed to. As you can see, NHC official reigns supreme. That human aspect with the machine learning information still, at least for now, is the best we’ve got. https://imgur.com/a/ckAyEJa

[syfr]

One of those chasers is eventually going to get killed by storm surge on one of these chases. Does anyone remember that chaser on Michael that had to abandon their vehicle because it started floating and broke into house in Mexico beach for cover? I thought for sure they were goners.

I do remember that . The water rose astonishingly fast. IIRC they broke into a 2nd floor apt via an external stairway.

People drive into hurricane target areas for click and thrills, not for meteorology .

[thickiminaj]

:oops: Someone teach me what I’m doing wrong.

I just wanna show you guys this video but actually post the video not the link to it.

This is the link to the video I’ve been trying to post to show y’all Helene’s actual movement overlay on the NHC track to show east movement.

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

Wow! That’s one hell of a wobble

Agreed that was definitely a big wobble. I know it’s gotta be scaring folks in Tampa and North. The wobbles in this particular storm feel like higher stakes than most.

[thickiminaj]

:oops: Someone teach me what I’m doing wrong.

I just wanna show you guys this video but actually post the video not the link to it.

This is the link to the video I’ve been trying to post to show y’all Helene’s actual movement overlay on the NHC track to show east movement.

https://imgur.com/a/t7YiFfk

You got it. It’s img /img to link a hosted photo or video. Pretty cool so thanks.

Hmm. Thanks Steve - I’ll try again next time but I just tried to do the img tag and it produced a broken icon. I think I just don’t know what I’m doing

[Kazmit]

Lol I've never seen such a skewed wind field. Solid cat 2 on one side and TS on the other.