ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[thickiminaj]

Wow! That’s one hell of a wobble

Agreed that was definitely a big wobble. I know it’s gotta be scaring folks in Tampa and North. The wobbles in this particular storm feel like higher stakes than most.

Do you have a link to that satellite you posted with the track on it ?

Shoot. Let me see if I can find it again for you!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Not seeing a lot of evidence this thing has intensified on recon... but it's definitely growing in size.

Honestly this reminds me a lot of the old arguments we used to have over the SSHS being replaced with another scale. It's Cat 2 wind but with Cat 3/4 impacts due to surge and rain.

https://i.imgur.com/5JLV9rG.jpeg

definitely not strengthening anymore, I wouldn't be surprised if this was close to it for max intensity. Convection is building asymmetrically, there's only so much deepening it can do with this type of core structure. 960mb is probably really close to the limits and to be fair, that is pretty strong, just the size of this thing makes the peak winds lower for that pressure.

The Hwrf model shows the structure of the storm taking a little bit to wrap up all the way but it shows the system restrengthening in about 3 to 6 hours from now. Just because it has stalled now doesn't mean it won't pick back up later.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1839317359447912791

[syfr]

For those in NC/TN, the latest NHC track now has the storm tracking slightly more west , now directly on the NC/TN border.

That still leaves the east faces of the mountains of NC poised to get some epic rain totals.

[chris_fit]

Amateur here, but seems like latest center fix (not confirmed yet) shows slight jog back west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE.png

Slightly East of track.

[thickiminaj]

See, and it isn’t working. My post to Steve didn’t show the actual picture. Just a broken icon. I’m using the img tag with the imgur link in between. What am I doing wrong?

You need the direct image link that ends with either .gif .jpg .jpeg etc etc

Ohhhh. I see. I’m on mobile - do you know how to grab that from imgur or pictures in general on mobile? If not I’ll see about using a different upload site maybe.

[WaveBreaking]

https://i.imgur.com/kOrYrWr.gif

Can you provide the source of these images? Would like to bookmark that site.

I’m using the RAMMB SLIDER website, and there’s a ton of products and satellites to use as well as the ability to layer multiple products on top of each other.

Here’s the link: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/

[MetroMike]

I can tell that Dave Osterberg on Fox13 here in Tampa is overly nervous about the east jog of the hurricane.

[ElectricStorm]

Surprised they increased it

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

[thickiminaj]

See, and it isn’t working. My post to Steve didn’t show the actual picture. Just a broken icon. I’m using the img tag with the imgur link in between. What am I doing wrong?

On Imgur, the easiest way is to click the dropdown menu in the top right, click "get share links," then copy the "BBcode (Forums)" link. If I had to guess, you are copying the link to the imgur page rather than the image itself, there needs to be the .jpg/.png/.gif file extension in the link.

Nailed it. Exactly what I’m doing. You’re an absolute angel, thank you so much.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC pretty explicitly calling for 105knots + landfall.

[Nuno]

I can tell that Dave Osterberg on Fox13 here in Tampa is overly nervous about the east jog of the hurricane.

Models always underestimate the strength of the trough on those NE-moving storms. Time and time again. It is going to be a close call for Cedar Key/Tampa. I hope those who were told to evacuate did so.

[Pipelines182]

The “wobbling” is very concerning here

what's concerning about it? It happens to all storms.

[jlauderdal]

The “wobbling” is very concerning here

It should be, we have been talking about here for a few days and the angle into florida. Forget the models now, watch radar, and sats.

[GCANE]

Helicity picking up on the eyewall as well

[WaveBreaking]

[Tyler Penland]

For those in NC/TN, the latest NHC track now has the storm tracking slightly more west , now directly on the NC/TN border.

That still leaves the east faces of the mountains of NC poised to get some epic rain totals.

I already have 10" since Tuesday afternoon near Boone, NC. 8.4" since yesterday morning.

Saw some bad flooding around Asheville. Just going to get worse. Also had some rare tornadoes.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[jlauderdal]

I can tell that Dave Osterberg on Fox13 here in Tampa is overly nervous about the east jog of the hurricane.

Dennis Phillips has been downplaying the wind threat to Tampa for a couple of days.

[Travorum]

See, and it isn’t working. My post to Steve didn’t show the actual picture. Just a broken icon. I’m using the img tag with the imgur link in between. What am I doing wrong?

On Imgur, the easiest way is to click the dropdown menu in the top right, click "get share links," then copy the "BBcode (Forums)" link. If I had to guess, you are copying the link to the imgur page rather than the image itself, there needs to be the .jpg/.png/.gif file extension in the link.

Nailed it. Exactly what I’m doing. You’re an absolute angel, thank you so much.

No problem I had the exact same problem when I first posted Imgur links.

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC not incorporating Storm2K posters' wobble watching into their 11AM forecast with Tallahassee still in the bullseye (68% hurricane wind probability). Tampa now up to 95% TS wind probability and up a tick slightly to 16% high-end TS winds and 3% hurricane. They don't seem too nervous about any eastern jogs or wobbles.