ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetroMike]

Both 06z GFS and 06z Euro are still persistent that Tampa Bay will see wind gusts in the 80-90 mph range. Euro showing Pinellas Beaches with 90+ mph wind gusts.

That must not be surface winds. Aloft I could agree.

[fllawyer]

Notice NHC increased their storm surge projection for the Tampa Bay Area. It had went down yesterday, even though I saw others keeping it at 5-8 ft. Wonder if it’s due to the slight nudge east or just realizing her large size and wind span to the east will cause a larger surge.

Unless I missed it, I have not seen NHC deviate in the advisories from the 5-8 surge forecast for Tampa Bay in the last few days.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Maybe Cat 3 next pass?

[caneman]

What seems to have happened is the bend more Northerly is occurring later but with the same end result. However, that has now put its closest point at about 100 miles off Pinellas beaches. That can be huge for winds and surge

[chaser1]

Hurricanes don't travel in straight lines. Trends are measured over six hour periods. I think the Tampa/Cedar Key concerns are unfounded outside of what has been officially forecast.

The models have been straight on last few days. I think it is surprising to see a deviation of that track today. Was not expecting any wobble like this.

Say what you will but if I lived between St. Pete & Tarpon Springs and were looking at these eastward wobbles superimposed over the forecast track, I know that my butt would be twitching just a bit Good news for the moment is how devoid of rain bands & squalls most of Florida south of Orlando is atm. Granted that'll change. A new line looks poised to swing northward through the Keys soon.

[NDG]

12z ICON shifted to the Taylor/Dixie County line, has the Cat 4 wind gusts from Cedar Key to Jena FL.

[FLLurker32]

Images of flooded streets in Clearwater beach are already coming out.

A reminder: Winds aren’t the biggest threat in these storms, water is. If you’re visiting this board and you’re in an evac zone - get off the computer/phone and relocate to the shelters designated by your county. Check on neighbors that are seniors and/or have disabilities and may need help.

Homes and belongings are replaceable, you are not.

[caneman]

Hurricanes don't travel in straight lines. Trends are measured over six hour periods. I think the Tampa/Cedar Key concerns are unfounded outside of what has been officially forecast.

The models have been straight on last few days. I think it is surprising to see a deviation of that track today. Was not expecting any wobble like this.

Say what you will but if I lived between St. Pete & Tarpon Springs and were looking at these eastward wobbles superimposed over the forecast track, I know that my butt would be twitching just a bit Good news for the moment is how devoid of rain bands & squalls most of Florida south of Orlando is atm. Granted that'll change. A new line looks poised to swing northward through the Keys soon.

Agree. I stated above that while the end landfall may still be near same the bend North is occurring further east with now being just about 100 miles off Pinellas beaches.

[wzrgirl1]

Can somebody please post the fsu experimental global forecast models....it was one page with 5 or 6 models. I had it but I seen to have lost it.

[psyclone]

Both 06z GFS and 06z Euro are still persistent that Tampa Bay will see wind gusts in the 80-90 mph range. Euro showing Pinellas Beaches with 90+ mph wind gusts.

We're riding with the nhc. People here are not ready for that

[decgirl66]

Brevard County here. Our lawn service is here doing there thing at our condos, lol. Just a little windy. We have had one tornado warning in my area (Titusville). I'll be here watching the boards!

[KC7NEC]

Update: We relocated to a safe hotel in Ybor City last night after realizing the hotel we were staying at was in Evacuation Zone A and should have been closed and evacuated. We’re settled in now and as prepared as we can be.

[FLLurker32]

Both 06z GFS and 06z Euro are still persistent that Tampa Bay will see wind gusts in the 80-90 mph range. Euro showing Pinellas Beaches with 90+ mph wind gusts.

We're riding with the nhc. People here are not ready for that

NHC has not removed Taylor county from their cone. Being prepared for the eye to potentially hit within Taylor county IS still in line with the NHC forecast.

I really wish the NHC would remove the center line and just let the cone do the talking by itself. Too many people focus on the line and not the cone.

[tolakram]

saved loop - this does not look like a storm that is having trouble intensifying.



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[LandoWill]

[Poonwalker]

Overall Tampa is again dodging the bullet. In this case maybe even a cannon. Iam just hoping water doesn’t enter homes. Difference of 10 miles eastern right now could be difference of garage getting lapped vs having inches of water throughout the floors. Also hoping we don’t get power outages. Irma left us without power for a week and it really sucked.

[kassi]

Update: We relocated to a safe hotel in Ybor City last night after realizing the hotel we were staying at was in Evacuation Zone A and should have been closed and evacuated. We’re settled in now and as prepared as we can be.

Relocated from where? No location in your profile.

[TallyTracker]

Morgerman updated that the water is already rising in Panacea on Ochlockonee Bay. The storm is still 300 miles away.

[SpinnerLover]

[NDG]

From my good friend Pro Met T Scott:

Your boys are TOO FAR WEST with their landfall, Deni.
T. Scott believes this will PASS EAST of Apalachee Bay; NOT WEST.

2 Vort. Lobes circulating the base of the upper low/trough 1st heads SE from coastal MS/AL at 7 AM this morning. This should result in the first turn N-NE. 2nd vort. lobe comes this afternoon, emanating EASTward from Western AL/Cstl AL/SE LA bootip. diving Eastward.

The natural gravitation towards STEEP DEEPENING and strengthening will also tend to reflect a right-ward CURVE to the Northeast.

("Where abouts, T. Scott?") Central Taylor County coastline, near Dekle Beach, FL.

Only thing I do agree upon, with your favorite NHC boyz, is the STAUNCH bold prediction of a Cat. 4 135 mph hurricane.
AND that is a BOLD, GUTSY prediction BECAUSE IF you examine the ATCF 00Z suite, 9/26, NONE of them go above 115 mph, except an old, deprecated statistical model DRCL.