ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

I would caution against using satellite (we can only see really the upper-level rotation) and radar currently (the attenuation/distance only lets us see the mid-level). There are still mesoscale evolutions occurring with the inner core as it begins to constrict (think of an ice skater spinning, pulling their arms in to go faster). There will be some oscillating of the LLC within the mean MLC rotation while this occurs (or wobbles/stair stepping). Here is a great tweet from Tomer:

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1839324439194063272

[syfr]

For those in NC/TN, the latest NHC track now has the storm tracking slightly more west , now directly on the NC/TN border.

That still leaves the east faces of the mountains of NC poised to get some epic rain totals.

10AM map shows it now another 50-60 mi west of the border of NC/TN

[TomballEd]

Another big intrusion of dry air

I'm not seeing that. GFS model doesn't see it either. WV isn't seeing it. (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_rgb). I think the dry air has been worked out. There is just a hint of dry air SE of the eye, but that should mix out quickly now that Helene is as well organized as it is. Not perfectly organized, but organized.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

TampaChads...we just cant stop winning. We need to start a pool when Tampa's year will be. By the time it actually comes imagine the winnings

For now the streak continues but we will still have some ill effects here.

I always hate it when I see posts like this... not that we're not grateful for the storm missing Tampa again, but really tempting fate for the next storm.

Hard agree on this, especially when we're looking at another potential gulf storm as early as next weekend. And even with Helene, I don't think the people in Tampa getting up to 8 feet of surge are going to feel like they're "winning."

Yeah it really builds complacency, same mentality New Orleans had about their levees and storms missing them.

[MJGarrison]

For the wobble watchers:

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1839324439194063272

This makes sense. On IR it looks like the eye is rotating about another point. I’m sure once the storm has a more symmetrical core we can expect the eye to match the center of circulation.


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[Zonacane]

Another big intrusion of dry air

I'm not seeing that. GFS model doesn't see it either. WV isn't seeing it. (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_rgb). I think the dry air has been worked out. There is just a hint of dry air SE of the eye, but that should mix out quickly now that Helene is as well organized as it is. Not perfectly organized, but organized.

Yes it is, collapsing convection leading into the core of the storm makes it very obvious. You can clearly see this on IR

[MississippiWx]

Dont underestimate the final strength of Helene just yet.

 https://x.com/mikefischerwx/status/1839337309218787363

[Powellrm]

Have there been a lot of people on YouTube and social media talking/posting about the “dry slot” or something? Seems to be comments about the dry slot, and limiting growth of Helene. I see a healthy hurricane that has worked out dry air, constricting, and set to make a big push prior to landfall.

[tolakram]

From my good friend Pro Met T Scott:

Your boys are TOO FAR WEST with their landfall, Deni.
T. Scott believes this will PASS EAST of Apalachee Bay; NOT WEST.

2 Vort. Lobes circulating the base of the upper low/trough 1st heads SE from coastal MS/AL at 7 AM this morning. This should result in the first turn N-NE. 2nd vort. lobe comes this afternoon, emanating EASTward from Western AL/Cstl AL/SE LA bootip. diving Eastward.

The natural gravitation towards STEEP DEEPENING and strengthening will also tend to reflect a right-ward CURVE to the Northeast.

("Where abouts, T. Scott?") Central Taylor County coastline, near Dekle Beach, FL.

Only thing I do agree upon, with your favorite NHC boyz, is the STAUNCH bold prediction of a Cat. 4 135 mph hurricane.
AND that is a BOLD, GUTSY prediction BECAUSE IF you examine the ATCF 00Z suite, 9/26, NONE of them go above 115 mph, except an old, deprecated statistical model DRCL.

Sorry, a pro met talks like that?

I think the biggest issue is the curve fit between two forecast points of a fast moving storm. The NHC tries to explain this, but I feel like the method is pretty outdated at this point. A good pro met would be able to explain this without any Z's IMO. Perhaps this was meant to be a private conversation?

[aspen]

Dont underestimate the final strength of Helene just yet.

 https://x.com/mikefischerwx/status/1839337309218787363

If I’m not mistaken, Michael had more time before landfall than Helene does not and wasn’t as broad. So Helene probably isn’t gonna go nuclear like Michael at this point. Still probably a major at landfall (although it’s been steady for the last several hours now).

[Steve]

saved loop - this does not look like a storm that is having trouble intensifying.

https://i.imgur.com/QyvOTg0.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Gravity waves!!!

[TallyTracker]

Wobble? Seems like it's still trending east of their current track, which they adjusted the trajectory at 11am to be more east as it was... they keep saying it's going north east, but it keeps trending more east than i feel they are saying, perhaps i just hope I'm wrong hah
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Be cautious using the Tampa radar to track the eye. It’s looking at the storm at an angle and only seeing the upper levels of the core. With the core still organizing, what you may be seeing is the edges of the eye changing but not the heading. Right now it still seems on track.

[FLLurker32]

I always hate it when I see posts like this... not that we're not grateful for the storm missing Tampa again, but really tempting fate for the next storm.

Hard agree on this, especially when we're looking at another potential gulf storm as early as next weekend. And even with Helene, I don't think the people in Tampa getting up to 8 feet of surge are going to feel like they're "winning."

Yeah it really builds complacency, same mentality New Orleans had about their levees and storms missing them.

I’m glad you said this. I always roll my eyes when I hear it referred to as a surprise. There were a few close calls leading up to Katrina and more than once our Mets in FL talked about how New Orleans was a bowl and how devastating it would be if it were to get hit. Some even made full visuals to show what it would do.

Katrina wasn’t a surprise or an unknown. The impact was a result of complacency and extremely poor emergency management.

[Zonacane]

Another big intrusion of dry air

I'm not seeing that. GFS model doesn't see it either. WV isn't seeing it. (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_rgb). I think the dry air has been worked out. There is just a hint of dry air SE of the eye, but that should mix out quickly now that Helene is as well organized as it is. Not perfectly organized, but organized.

Yes it is, collapsing convection leading into the core of the storm makes it very obvious. You can clearly see this on IR

Hell you can even see it on recon, with the drop in FL winds

[psyclone]

Dont underestimate the final strength of Helene just yet.

 https://x.com/mikefischerwx/status/1839337309218787363

I strongly agree with this. A classic Gulf grungeycane. Michael and Laura were both ugly beasts until they weren't. That may happen here. Even if it doesn't it's a huge storm pushing the ocean into a corner of the bathtub. It's going to be a biggie because it already is..

[ronjon]

Tides running about 2.5-3 feet above normal from Tampa Bay to Cedar Key. And this is with current winds offshore and storm center 200 miles away.

[3090]

Another big intrusion of dry air

I'm not seeing that. GFS model doesn't see it either. WV isn't seeing it. (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_rgb). I think the dry air has been worked out. There is just a hint of dry air SE of the eye, but that should mix out quickly now that Helene is as well organized as it is. Not perfectly organized, but organized.

Clearly visible on IR satellite imagery if you understand how to look at the temperature readings of the cloud tops. Very ragged looking all on the south side. West/north/east very cold cloud tops. The bottom half (south side) not so much at all. Sloppy looking.

[technikal]

Another big intrusion of dry air

I'm not seeing that. GFS model doesn't see it either. WV isn't seeing it. (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_rgb). I think the dry air has been worked out. There is just a hint of dry air SE of the eye, but that should mix out quickly now that Helene is as well organized as it is. Not perfectly organized, but organized.

Idk, that’s a pretty big intrusion on the SE. This hurricane is not looking like it’ll RI. But it’s strong enough as it is unfortunately

[NDG]

So comparing the recons' fixes during the past 5 hours Helene has averaged at a 25 deg heading, right on que with the latest NHC advisory.
But if this heading continues it will get within 100 miles from Tampa Bay.

[johngaltfla]

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