2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Broad consensus of a 2nd WCARB storm from GFS/CMC with consistency. It's definitely a real signal and not just a GFS ghost.

[Hurricane Mike]

12Z GFS showing a major Gulf storm first week of October.

[Pelicane]

Broad consensus of a 2nd WCARB storm from GFS/CMC with consistency. It's definitely a real signal and not just a GFS ghost.

The vorticity shows up in the ECMWF as well. 6z EPS likes it in 6 days off of the Nicaragua-Honduras border.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

[Travorum]

Bay of Campeche doing Bay of Campeche things...

[Weathertracker96]

Looks like Caribbean might be the spot to watch this weekend & next week.
I wonder if the steering would normal this of year with troughs coming down. I did see the GFS go into BOC but I know fronts are common this time of year.

[Pasmorade]

Broad consensus of a 2nd WCARB storm from GFS/CMC with consistency. It's definitely a real signal and not just a GFS ghost.

The vorticity shows up in the ECMWF as well. 6z EPS likes it in 6 days off of the Nicaragua-Honduras border.

Seems like the NHC tagged it 0/20 just now.

[cycloneye]

The model runs for the western caribbean area are going to be posted at the new thread for that area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2#p3094442

[Category5Kaiju]

:double: Bay of Campeche doing Bay of Campeche things...

https://i.imgur.com/2RutcTk.gif

Yeah, Helene was enough. And now it’s looking somewhat possible that we could be seeing yet another strong CAG-born system in the coming weeks?

Yikes, 2024 is really trying to make up for its lost time

[Stratton23]

Is tropical tidbits down for anyone else? I tried going on and it keeps saying error 502 gateway

[WeatherBoy2000]

Is tropical tidbits down for anyone else? I tried going on and it keeps saying error 502 gateway

Tropical Tidbits going down is a common occurrence when there's a major US storm.

[HurryKane]

Is tropical tidbits down for anyone else? I tried going on and it keeps saying error 502 gateway

Tropical Tidbits going down is a common occurrence when there's a major US storm.

According to Levi it’s not down, just having too many requests:

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/18 ... ZI7cDdUq5A

[Teban54]

HWRF and HMON will be retired at the end of this season.

 https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1839515975470969014

[ConvergenceZone]

HWRF and HMON will be retired at the end of this season.

 https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1839515975470969014

I wonder what the reasoning is? Aren't they used as intensity models? I know they say that the euro isn't an intensity model,and I've also heard that about the gfs.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF and HMON will be retired at the end of this season.

 https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1839515975470969014

I wonder what the reasoning is? Aren't they used as intensity models? I know they say that the euro isn't an intensity model,and I've also heard that about the gfs.

I believe the HAFS are going to take over

[Kazmit]

HWRF and HMON will be retired at the end of this season.

 https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1839515975470969014

Retired why? Is HAFS replacing them?

[Teban54]

Yes, I believe HAFS-A replaces HMON and HAFS-B replaces HWRF. (Or did I get them mixed up?)

[chaser1]

It's a story of the HAFS, and HAF NOTS

[kevin]

06z ICON has 4 TCs at +120 hrs.
*The current disturbance in the eastern MDR is an intensifying cat 1, a little further south than in 00z.
*The WCar disturbance as a 1004 mb TS in the GOM.
*Another wave behind the MDR disturbance becomes a TS. Many models have been hinting at a couple more MDR waves.
*A STS east of the US.