ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3101 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:05 pm

Recon data supports Category 4, 115-120 knots based on flight level winds of ~135 knots.

Another historic Gulf major hurricane.
14 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
Beef Stew
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 495
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3102 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:07 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Uh, did NHC just lower the intensity of a rapidly intensifying major hurricane mere hours from landfall?

To be fair, they have more data than us, so I'm sure there's a good reason. That, or they just made a typo


Have they even sampled the eastern side yet?

This has to be a typo

089
WTNT64 KNHC 262200
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci



I think it will get bumped to 130 momentarily. I'm assuming it was a typo?
3 likes   

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1252
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3103 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:07 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3104 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:07 pm

NHC prematurely dropped it from 125 mph down to 120 mph before the NOAA recon passing the eastern quadrant.
And TV mets jumped on their wagon as well.
3 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneAndre2008
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 327
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:51 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3105 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:07 pm

0 likes   
Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3168
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3106 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:07 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Uh, did NHC just lower the intensity of a rapidly intensifying major hurricane mere hours from landfall?

To be fair, they have more data than us, so I'm sure there's a good reason. That, or they just made a typo


Have they even sampled the eastern side yet?

This has to be a typo

089
WTNT64 KNHC 262200
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci

It has just been corrected moments ago, though they will likely need to make another update anyway for Cat 4 strength.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 262205 CCA
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Corrected for the maximum winds and forward motion

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci
3 likes   

User avatar
Beef Stew
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 495
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3107 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:07 pm

NDG wrote:NHC prematurely dropped it from 125 mph down to 120 mph before the NOAA recon passing the eastern quadrant.
And TV mets jumped on their wagon as well.


It's back up to 125 now.
2 likes   

User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 897
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3108 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:07 pm

Standard conversion of flight level wind of 136 kt gets you 122 kt at the surface - but may be a bit higher than that for Helene since the undersampling factor will be a bit higher for a larger storm. So 120-125 kt seems reasonable.
6 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3109 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:08 pm

Special advisory coming soon?
3 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3110 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:08 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Uh, did NHC just lower the intensity of a rapidly intensifying major hurricane mere hours from landfall?


Hmm, that does sound odd. I wonder if it's a typo
2 likes   

User avatar
Beef Stew
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 495
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3111 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:09 pm

Based on that last pass, I think an intensity of 120kts/140 mph could be justified. 125 kts/ 145 mph is a possibility as well.

Edit: I didn't realize this was the NOAA plane and not AF. In that case, 115-120 is the best estimate IMO, but I'd lean towards 120 due to potential undersampling of a large storm and the rate of current intensification.
Last edited by Beef Stew on Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
4 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2554
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3112 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:09 pm

Based on the 947 mb dropsonde and the 136 kt FL I say we have our 120 - 125 kt cat 4. Who knows what it's gonna do in its final hours before landfall. A high-end cat 4 or maybe even more is in play with its current intensification rate.
5 likes   

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4051
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3113 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:09 pm

I'm expecting an upgrade to Category 4 fairly soon; very dangerous situation for the Panhandle/Big Bend, including Tallahassee
5 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

zzzh
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 833
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2021 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3114 Postby zzzh » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:09 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Standard conversion of flight level wind of 136 kt gets you 122 kt at the surface - but may be a bit higher than that for Helene since the undersampling factor will be a bit higher for a larger storm. So 120-125 kt seems reasonable.

This is at 750mb so conversion is around 0.86, not 0.9.
0 likes   

TallyTracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3115 Postby TallyTracker » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:10 pm

Kazmit wrote:Special advisory coming soon?


I doubt they will go that far. This is what they have been forecasting. If they think it will hit Cat 5, perhaps that will change.
1 likes   
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23, Debby ‘24, Helene ‘24

User avatar
WaveBreaking
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 562
Joined: Sun Jun 30, 2024 11:33 am
Location: US

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3116 Postby WaveBreaking » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:10 pm

:double:

Image
2 likes   
I am NOT a professional meteorologist, so take all of my posts with a grain of salt. My opinions are mine and mine alone.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3117 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:10 pm

Given the elevation of the NOAA plane, 115 kt seems most reasonable.
0 likes   

User avatar
Travorum
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:36 am
Location: Dunedin, FL

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3118 Postby Travorum » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:10 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Uh, did NHC just lower the intensity of a rapidly intensifying major hurricane mere hours from landfall?

To be fair, they have more data than us, so I'm sure there's a good reason. That, or they just made a typo


Have they even sampled the eastern side yet?

This has to be a typo

089
WTNT64 KNHC 262200
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci


This almost immediately did not age well, recon has some sort of supernatural ability to sample the peak winds 5 minutes after the NHC posts an advisory.
2 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3344
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3119 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:10 pm

There's a chance a stadium effect might be getting ready to go on display. Still obscured, but once those cloud temps warm...

The amount this storm has improved on satellite in just the last hour is insane.

Image
5 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3168
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3120 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:11 pm

TallyTracker wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Special advisory coming soon?


I doubt they will go that far. This is what they have been forecasting. If they think it will hit Cat 5, perhaps that will change.

NHC generally does make immediate special advisories when there are major changes in current strength, regardless of forecasts.
1 likes   


Return to “2024”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 53 guests