ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Thinking stronger next update.

[La Sirena]

She will make a legitimate run at cat 5 in my opinion.

She still has a couple of hours before landfall. Just remembering Hurricane Michael and that very late push.

[Teban54]

I'm thinking between Perry and Steinhatchee. Definitely Taylor County. Euro, GFS, UK, ICON all zeroed in on a 20 mile strip of coast.

100% you, I and NDG were on it and maybe a few others. I've lived here since 1976. You kinda learn how these things behave minus the meteorology degree. Credit to Bay News 9 and Spectrum News they've been all over Perry area or Taylor county. Klystron is the real deal!

Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.

To be fair, ICON did have its flaws with Helene by sticking to the eastern solutions near Tampa longer than other global models. (Of course this doesn't take away things that it did well.)

[Beef Stew]

I still think that last pass would tilt more in favor of 120 kts/140 mph, but if current trends continue I suspect there will be another bump to these values following the next pass.

[Powellrm]

The eye is tracking east of the NHC projected path again.

ICON has been all over this. I’ll need to go back and compare the track.

[Michele B]

THIS IS INSANE!!



 https://x.com/BayNews9Jeff/status/1839385288801718386

haha that bridge is always like that during any sort of tropical storm. Its fine. Officials have certain conditions for closing it and those conditions have not been met

[FLLurker32]

The eye is tracking east of the NHC projected path again.

Yes it is, hopefully wobbles back or places like Cedar Key are going to be in even more trouble then they already are.

I’m 45 miles due east of Cedar Key. If that happens it would have historic impacts. This is an area of the state that very rarely sees even strong tropical storm winds.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's honestly insane how many major Gulf landfalls we've have since 2017. Helene is looking like it will be the NINTH (yes, NINTH) Cat 3+ hurricane to hit the CONUS Gulf Coast

[Pelicane]

Ian peaked at 937 mb, so this could match that assuming this doesn't peak due to increasing southernly shear.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1839428309391925678

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/Q4KxOms.gif

Wow, the last few frames made it appear to make big right turn from the cone. Am I seeing this wrong?

[Michele B]

THIS IS INSANE!!



 https://x.com/BayNews9Jeff/status/1839385288801718386

haha that bridge is always like that during any sort of tropical storm. Its fine. Officials have certain conditions for closing it and those conditions have not been met

During Debby, parts of the Howard Franklin bridge washed into the Gulf! They should have closed it this time once the gulf started over washing it.

[CrazyC83]

If that satellite estimate suggests the ceiling, it could very well be around 130-135 kt at landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The amount of intensification Helene has undergone in the last six hours is astounding. The models warned us this was a possibility, didn't think with a storm this size it would intensify to this degree based on its intensity this morning.

My guess is this could reach 130-135 knots before landfall.

[NDG]

Helene will need to start moving due north now to track right over Tallahassee, very confident now that it will track to the east of Tallahassee right up Taylor County as the global models have been very persistent on since last night.

[Beef Stew]

The eye is tracking east of the NHC projected path again.

ICON has been all over this. I’ll need to go back and compare the track.

The Icon has been deadset on Taylor county for a good while now. It looks like it's going to be right- ground zero looks to be somewhere right around Perry-Steinhatchee.

[JtSmarts]

It's honestly insane how many major Gulf landfalls we've have since 2017. Helene is looking like it will be the NINTH (yes, NINTH) Cat 3+ hurricane to hit the CONUS Gulf Coast

Making up for that 2006-2016 lull period. That western eyewall will likely be nasty but every east wobble could help out Tallahassee.

[CrazyC83]

It's honestly insane how many major Gulf landfalls we've have since 2017. Helene is looking like it will be the NINTH (yes, NINTH) Cat 3+ hurricane to hit the CONUS Gulf Coast

To think the CONUS had no major landfalls from 2006 to 2016...that seems like ancient history now.

[Steve]

100% you, I and NDG were on it and maybe a few others. I've lived here since 1976. You kinda learn how these things behave minus the meteorology degree. Credit to Bay News 9 and Spectrum News they've been all over Perry area or Taylor county. Klystron is the real deal!

Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.

To be fair, ICON did have its flaws with Helene by sticking to the eastern solutions near Tampa longer than other global models. (Of course this doesn't take away things that it did well.)

Tidbits is down. And yeah it over reached a little when almost all guidance was at Apalachicola or Carabelle. But it nudged up the coast and went with 940s.

[Powellrm]

Oookay, cat 4. So much for the dry air slots. There’s no way this thing wasn’t going to absolutely explode over record ocean temps without any sheer or detrimental factors. And landfall would be until 10-11pm? God. I hate watching these slow motion nightmares unfold. I couldn’t sleep last night. Be safe everyone and take care of yourselves.