ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

Michael had the same beefy eyewall that developed within a couple hours of landfall. Mesovortices are causing the same pentagon/hexagonal eye shape as well. She's getting stronger by the minute it seems.

[TampaWxLurker]

If it comes into central Taylor County, not only is Perry in real trouble, but Valdosta, Georgia is going to get walloped.

[WaveBreaking]

[Beef Stew]

It's honestly insane how many major Gulf landfalls we've have since 2017. Helene is looking like it will be the NINTH (yes, NINTH) Cat 3+ hurricane to hit the CONUS Gulf Coast

And- this is the part that's even crazier to me- it'll be the 6th that intensified right up through landfall (Harvey, Michael, Laura, Zeta, Ida)

[Bocadude85]

If that band offshore St. Pete rotates in I would imagine it will produce gusts over hurricane force.

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/LNngWjH.jpeg

If those deep cloud tops wrap all the way around, that is T7.0 correct?

[technikal]

https://i.imgur.com/Q4KxOms.gif

Wow, the last few frames made it appear to make big right turn from the cone. Am I seeing this wrong?

Wobble, consistent with its pattern the last couple hours. The next few frames will look almost due north

[Stormgodess]

https://i.imgur.com/LNngWjH.jpeg

Is it just me or is that eyewall really thick!!!

[caneman]

Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.

To be fair, ICON did have its flaws with Helene by sticking to the eastern solutions near Tampa longer than other global models. (Of course this doesn't take away things that it did well.)

Tidbits is down. And yeah it over reached a little when almost all guidance was at Apalachicola or Carabelle. But it nudged up the coast and went with 940s.

Icon was off at 1st but it gfs and euro have been locked down in the 24 or 48 hours. GFS IS often beat down on by people but I gotta say it's been the most locked down and consistent

[WaveBreaking]

https://i.imgur.com/LNngWjH.jpeg

If those deep cloud tops wrap all the way around, that is T7.0 correct?

I’d check, but Dvorak imagery on Tropical Tidbits is slow bc of all the traffic on the website.

[Kingarabian]

If that satellite estimate suggests the ceiling, it could very well be around 130-135 kt at landfall.

130kts to 135kts sounds reasonable IMO. Up to 6.5 on Dvorak now.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/LNngWjH.jpeg

If those deep cloud tops wrap all the way around, that is T7.0 correct?

Yes. Simply a warmer eye and that W ring could do it.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/LNngWjH.jpeg

Best way I can describe Helene is that it's a Michael/Idalia hybrid, expect it's also a speed demon and may bring potent impacts even while well inland.

[Beef Stew]

If my eyeball extrapolation is correct, it looks like landfall will occur in roughly 2 hours, give or take- anyone have a more accurate estimate?

[Travorum]

https://i.imgur.com/LNngWjH.jpeg

If those deep cloud tops wrap all the way around, that is T7.0 correct?

I’d check, but Dvorak imagery on Tropical Tidbits is slow bc of all the traffic on the website.

Here's Dvorak imagery from Cyclonicwx:

[NDG]

Helene in the past 4 hours has not changed much on a heading near 18 degrees heading based on the recon fixes, it needs to change to a due north heading like right now to be on track.

[Cyclenall]

It's honestly insane how many major Gulf landfalls we've have since 2017. Helene is looking like it will be the NINTH (yes, NINTH) Cat 3+ hurricane to hit the CONUS Gulf Coast

Making up for that 2006-2016 lull period. That western eyewall will likely be nasty but every east wobble could help out Tallahassee.

Yep, this is what happens when there is nothing for 11 years, rubber band is real.

I'm curious to know how many in southern GA evacuated as the winds will be hellacious. Fast moving cat4 up there will bring once in a century winds!

[NDG]

If my eyeball extrapolation is correct, it looks like landfall will occur in roughly 2 hours, give or take- anyone have a more accurate estimate?

I estimate it to be in at least 4 hours.

[Steve]

To be fair, ICON did have its flaws with Helene by sticking to the eastern solutions near Tampa longer than other global models. (Of course this doesn't take away things that it did well.)

Tidbits is down. And yeah it over reached a little when almost all guidance was at Apalachicola or Carabelle. But it nudged up the coast and went with 940s.

Icon was off at 1st but it gfs and euro have been locked down in the 24 or 48 hours. GFS IS often beat down on by people but I gotta say it's been the most locked down and consistent

Pivotal only goes back a couple days. Here’s Tuesday 12z. 947. Contrast that with GFS’s 972. Go back farther and it was one of leaders though again got to far south for a couple runs.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... slp&m=icon

GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[ronjon]

I'm thinking between Perry and Steinhatchee. Definitely Taylor County. Euro, GFS, UK, ICON all zeroed in on a 20 mile strip of coast.

100% you, I and NDG were on it and maybe a few others. I've lived here since 1976. You kinda learn how these things behave minus the meteorology degree. Credit to Bay News 9 and Spectrum News they've been all over Perry area or Taylor county. Klystron is the real deal!

Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.

Got to give a shout out to long time storm2k poster Gatorcane too. He noticed the NE path of the GFS last night and made note of it. Of course myself, Steve, NDG and Caneman are all pretty long in the tooth posters here too. If I've left someone else out my apologies