ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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BIFF_THE_UNRULY
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3201 Postby BIFF_THE_UNRULY » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:51 pm

Geez....She or whatever is heading almost to Citrus/Levy line if she dont turn
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3202 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:52 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:How strong do you think Helene will get? For me it will be between 140 to 150mph


I'd have to guess 145 mph.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3203 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:52 pm

Will Helene get retired? I think it will.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3204 Postby BIFF_THE_UNRULY » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:53 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Will Helene get retired? I think it will.


yes

If they are gonna retire Beryl, then yeah
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3205 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:53 pm

Steve wrote:
ronjon wrote:
Steve wrote:
Maybe a few others. Give it up again for the Icon once again for a Gulf storm in 2024. It’s probably a Top 3 or 4 global these days - at least for the Gulf.


Got to give a shout out to long time storm2k poster Gatorcane too. He noticed the NE path of the GFS last night and made note of it. Of course myself, Steve, NDG and Caneman are all pretty long in the tooth posters here too. If I've left someone else out my apologies :D


GCANE for the obscure play by play stuff. Got to be my favorite poster.

I look for him ever Storm to let me know what’s happening with CAPE and tornados,
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3206 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:54 pm

Recon has 943.6mb on this pass, extrapolated.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3207 Postby Travorum » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:54 pm

Down to 943.6mb extrap in the eye.
NOAA2 1709A HELENE HDOB 18 20240926
224230 2818N 08410W 7508 02069 9481 +197 +199 173056 058 /// /// 05
224300 2817N 08411W 7529 02038 9470 +207 +195 177054 056 /// /// 03
224330 2817N 08413W 7526 02040 9460 +217 +178 176049 054 /// /// 03
224400 2816N 08415W 7517 02044 9450 +224 +172 173042 047 /// /// 03
224430 2816N 08417W 7513 02040 9445 +224 +167 171034 037 /// /// 03
224500 2816N 08420W 7517 02034 9448 +214 +172 174022 029 /// /// 03
224530 2816N 08422W 7517 02036 9455 +208 +175 178015 018 /// /// 03
224600 2815N 08424W 7518 02037 9446 +224 +170 187005 012 /// /// 03
224630 2815N 08426W 7650 01885 9449 +236 +163 333005 006 /// /// 03
224700 2817N 08427W 7682 01856 9456 +233 +176 326008 009 /// /// 03
224730 2818N 08426W 7589 01963 9440 +246 +172 297006 009 /// /// 03
224800 2818N 08424W 7508 02052 9436 +241 +155 215008 010 /// /// 03
224830 2818N 08421W 7496 02062 9446 +227 +142 191014 018 /// /// 03
224900 2817N 08419W 7524 02028 9455 +208 +161 191021 023 /// /// 03
224930 2816N 08417W 7512 02044 9453 +210 +165 193026 029 /// /// 03
225000 2815N 08416W 7524 02028 9451 +215 +157 191031 032 /// /// 03
225030 2813N 08417W 7529 02017 9447 +220 +157 196029 033 /// /// 03
225100 2812N 08418W 7520 02031 9443 +226 +151 212025 026 /// /// 03
225130 2812N 08420W 7531 02015 9451 +211 +156 223024 026 /// /// 03
225200 2814N 08421W 7529 02018 9446 +217 +160 220023 023 /// /// 03
Last edited by Travorum on Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3208 Postby BIFF_THE_UNRULY » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:54 pm

getting gusts in Hudson of 72, 73 according to weather station. Really nasty right now
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3209 Postby Travorum » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:54 pm

oops double post.
Last edited by Travorum on Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3210 Postby Visioen » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:54 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Just caught word that Helene's now a Cat 4. I've completely tuned out the tropics since leaving FL 3 years ago but am praying for my fellow Floridians in the path tonight. Will be staying tuned.

Sounds like a credible source. /s
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3211 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:55 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Will Helene get retired? I think it will.



pretty much all but guaranteed. In my opinion the wind damage we will see will be devastating, mostly due to how far inland this is expected to maintain hurricane status. That's the key.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3212 Postby Zarniwoop » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:55 pm

944!!? Absolutely bombing!
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3213 Postby TomballEd » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:55 pm

224730 2818N 08426W 7589 01963 9440 +246 +172 297006 009 /// /// 03


Edit- posts are hitting fast and furious.
Last edited by TomballEd on Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3214 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:55 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Will Helene get retired? I think it will.


I think Helene's main story will be its inland effects due to how fast it is traveling, especially potential impacts in major cities like Tally and Atlanta. So yes, given its strength especially, I'd say there unfortunately is a likely chance of this getting retired.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3215 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:56 pm

I thinking 930s next pass.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3216 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:57 pm

TomballEd wrote:
224730 2818N 08426W 7589 01963 9440 +246 +172 297006 009 /// /// 03



that's some warm water right there and almost perfect conditions aloft to bring her that low..impressive but not surprising.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3217 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:57 pm

Nimbus wrote:
caneman wrote:43,000 without power in Tampa Bay


NHC shifted track to the crack..
Might save Tally?


https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions


That's what I'm thinking. Even if only another 15-30 miles further east, would mean Crawfordville & Tally could be 40-50 miles west. That could be the difference between "bad" and "severe"
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3218 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:59 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Will Helene get retired? I think it will.


Zero doubt
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3219 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:59 pm

Zarniwoop wrote:944!!? Absolutely bombing!

946.2 mb extrap at 21:53z to 943.6 mb extrap at 22:48z is roughly 2.8 mb/hr. A respectable pace, but not crazy bombing. Next pass should be around 941 mb.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3220 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 6:00 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
caneman wrote:43,000 without power in Tampa Bay


NHC shifted track to the crack..
Might save Tally?


https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions


That's what I'm thinking. Even if only another 15-30 miles further east, would mean Crawfordville & Tally could be 40-50 miles west. That could be the difference between "bad" and "severe"


It would be the difference between a hit similar to Kate 1985, and an unprecedented impact that makes the city forever unrecognizable.
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