ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

155,00 people without power now just Hillsborough and Pinellas.

[Travorum]

I thinking 930s next pass.

It's dropping almost exactly 3mb/hr, I'm thinking 940 or high 930s.

[Zarniwoop]

944!!? Absolutely bombing!

946.2 mb extrap at 21:53z to 943.6 mb extrap at 22:48z is roughly 2.8 mb/hr. A respectable pace, but not crazy bombing. Next pass should be around 941 mb.

I somehow had the idea that the last pass was 949. Whoops!

[ElectricStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2024 Time : 221020 UTC
Lat : 27:54:35 N Lon : 84:18:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 929.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.3 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[HurricaneAndre2008]

555
WTNT64 KNHC 262259
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HELENE HEADING TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel near the entrance of Tampa
Bay recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and
a wind gust of 71 mph (115 km/h).

Tropical storm conditions are approaching the coastline of
Florida's Big Bend. A Weatherflow station at St. George Island
recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Helene get retired? I think it will.

pretty much all but guaranteed. In my opinion the wind damage we will see will be devastating, mostly due to how far inland this is expected to maintain hurricane status. That's the key.

Idalia hit the same area Helene is set to and wasn’t retired.

[zal0phus]

Will Helene get retired? I think it will.

pretty much all but guaranteed. In my opinion the wind damage we will see will be devastating, mostly due to how far inland this is expected to maintain hurricane status. That's the key.

Idalia hit the same area Helene is set to and wasn’t retired.

Idalia was a fraction of Helene's size and didn't track over Tallahassee and inland Georgia.

[Nimbus]

43,000 without power in Tampa Bay

NHC shifted track to the crack..
Might save Tally?


https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

That's what I'm thinking. Even if only another 15-30 miles further east, would mean Crawfordville & Tally could be 40-50 miles west. That could be the difference between "bad" and "severe"

Some of the gusts are getting pretty strong in Pinellas county almost 100,000 without power as the squalls are coming through. I don't think Tallahassee will be 40 miles west of track but even 5 miles west would drop the wind speeds dramatically.

[NDG]

Crazy that the airport in downtown St Pete is reporting a heat index of almost 100 degrees because of dewpoints in the low 80s rotating in around Helene, while raining and wind gusting over 70 mph.

Sep 26, 6:40 pm 84 81 89 99 S 51G71

[Hurricane2022]

Will Helene get retired? I think it will.

pretty much all but guaranteed. In my opinion the wind damage we will see will be devastating, mostly due to how far inland this is expected to maintain hurricane status. That's the key.

Idalia hit the same area Helene is set to and wasn’t retired.

But Idalia was much weaker and smaller than what Helene will be at Landfall, and it is very likely that she will bring hurricane-force winds well over Georgia.

[Travorum]

Will Helene get retired? I think it will.

pretty much all but guaranteed. In my opinion the wind damage we will see will be devastating, mostly due to how far inland this is expected to maintain hurricane status. That's the key.

Idalia hit the same area Helene is set to and wasn’t retired.

Idalia wasn't as big, was weakening on landfall, and was moving much slower and to the Northeast so didn't penetrate through to areas in the Georgia that aren't prepared for winds and rain like this. When you add in potential flooding in Appalachia, I think Helene will have a much greater chance at retirement than Idalia did.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Crazy that the airport in downtown St Pete is reporting a heat index of almost 100 degrees because of dewpoints in the low 80s rotating in around Helene, while raining and wind gusting over 70 mph.

Sep 26, 6:40 pm 84 81 89 99 S 51G71

its a very hot hurricane man. it feels wierd and like no cane i can ever remember. Usually these things come through and clear the air and cool us down a bit

[Travorum]

Update: NOAA is flying around in the eye and found 942.1mb extrap:

NOAA2 1709A HELENE HDOB 19 20240926
225230 2816N 08419W 7502 02051 9445 +220 +160 208022 022 /// /// 03
225300 2817N 08417W 7466 02099 9457 +205 +160 195025 028 /// /// 03
225330 2816N 08415W 7495 02063 9453 +211 +159 192032 033 /// /// 03
225400 2814N 08415W 7519 02032 9448 +219 +153 197032 033 /// /// 03
225430 2813N 08416W 7512 02038 9452 +213 +157 211031 033 /// /// 03
225500 2813N 08418W 7529 02016 9436 +231 +153 221027 030 /// /// 03
225530 2815N 08418W 7529 02018 9434 +234 +148 218025 026 /// /// 03
225600 2817N 08417W 7519 02029 9439 +228 +148 203027 029 /// /// 03
225630 2817N 08415W 7512 02037 9442 +225 +152 194032 033 /// /// 03
225700 2816N 08413W 7520 02029 9442 +223 +152 200032 033 /// /// 03
225730 2814N 08414W 7527 02022 9430 +241 +150 210033 035 /// /// 03
225800 2813N 08416W 7514 02036 9429 +245 +146 214033 035 /// /// 03
225830 2814N 08417W 7507 02049 9440 +234 +147 223029 032 /// /// 03
225900 2817N 08418W 7491 02066 9426 +250 +139 208029 029 /// /// 03
225930 2818N 08416W 7516 02033 9436 +234 +146 199028 030 /// /// 03
230000 2818N 08414W 7521 02028 9444 +220 +152 197030 031 /// /// 03
230030 2816N 08413W 7528 02021 9421 +255 +146 204033 035 /// /// 03
230100 2816N 08415W 7529 02020 9425 +253 +139 213029 033 /// /// 03
230130 2817N 08416W 7517 02033 9436 +236 +143 213029 029 /// /// 03
230200 2820N 08416W 7502 02050 9441 +228 +146 195030 031 /// /// 03

[Janie2006]

Good God. Helene is going to cause a lot of damage over a wide swath of territory. Anyone in the landfall area not already prepared is almost certainly out of time. Your window of opportunity is rapidly closing now.

We’re in the midst of putting together ERTs, Emergency Response Teams, and we’ll have peeps in Tallahassee as soon as it’s feasible. It’s times like this that remind us all that we’re interconnected.

[SouthFLTropics]

Traffic webcams on fl511.com are showing quite a bit of surge flowing into Siesta Key.

[ROCK]

NHC are going to have to update every hour on the hour if it keeps dropping like this....mid to low 930s not out of question...

[Poonwalker]

If you look closely you can see Helene is sparing Pinellas from the outer core winds. Those might be only 10 miles offshore right now. We have had the lights flickering here. 120,000 plus are without power around me. Just thankful

[NDG]

NOAA recon did several loops around the eye, I wonder if it was to catch their breath after penetrating the NE eyewall.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

uhhh

that eye wall getting awfully close to my neck of the woods in Hudson/Spring hill

When is it gonna turn more north?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

For reference, this was Idalia last year.



And THIS is Helene...