ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

What is going on with recon. They are circling around the center over and over

They're scientists. Often the NOAA planes will do funny things that the USAF planes don't do because their purpose is more than center fixes.

NOAA plane is on the way back out now anyway, for those worried.

[Janie2006]

The front that cleared southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and extreme southwest Alabama was in fact fairly weak and forecasted to stall at the I-65 corridor. I don’t doubt that Helene is pushing against it, but this is playing out as modeling predicted.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

They finally finished doing the eyeball boogaloo.

[ScottNAtlanta]

What is going on with recon. They are circling around the center over and over

They're scientists. Often the NOAA planes will do funny things that the USAF planes don't do because their purpose is more than center fixes.

NOAA plane is on the way back out now anyway, for those worried.

They made 12 loops so I hope they got what they wanted...without getting dizzy
They got a dropsonde right into the eyewall and a wind of 92kts

[Longhornmaniac8]

I want to get this saved. Helene is pushing back the front which had just cleared my area. Outflow is incredibly vigorous.

https://i.imgur.com/guYyPU0.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

If you look at the mid-level WV in particular you can see it actually pushing that low over Western Kentucky back to the west. Absolutely wild stuff.

[Tekken_Guy]

Thanks, brother!

Prayers for all those in the path.

If it makes the northeast turn that some of the models are showing then Atlanta could dodge a bullet, but eastern GA could get much more hammered. If it follows the NHC though that’s much worse for ATL.

Which models are showing a NE turn?

GFS and Euro show it make landfall in Taylor then go up Eastern GA to the SC border.

Meanwhile NHC has it curve northwest going directly over ATL and to TN.

[syfr]

What is going on with recon. They are circling around the center over and over

They're scientists. Often the NOAA planes will do funny things that the USAF planes don't do because their purpose is more than center fixes.

NOAA plane is on the way back out now anyway, for those worried.

They made 12 loops so I hope they got what they wanted...without getting dizzy
They got a dropsonde right into the eyewall and a wind of 92kts

Where can you see the live tracking ?

Thanks!

[Hurrilurker]

Tropical Tidbits is offline, probably overloaded.

[caneman]

[quote="Janie2006"]The front that cleared southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and extreme southwest Alabama was in fact fairly weak and forecasted to stall at the I-65 corridor. I don’t doubt that Helene is pushing against it, but this is playing out as modeling predicted.[/quot

Huh? Which modeling? if your're refering to ICON, gfc and euro on right hand side of cone, I guess you'd be right. Meaning
PERRY AND STEINHATCHEE and not Tallahassee. If you're referring models that were west and that helped NHC zone in on Tallahassee you'd be wrong

[eastcoastFL]

I want to get this saved. Helene is pushing back the front which had just cleared my area. Outflow is incredibly vigorous.

https://i.imgur.com/guYyPU0.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

The pure energy coming out of this system is wild

I’m sure that’s happened before but I do not recall seeing that.

[gatorcane]

Certainly looks like the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF track is going to beat the NHC track from yesterday looking at where Helene is headed which is the Big Bend and considerably more east than where the NHC had it 24 hours ago.

[PTPatrick]

seems that Tallahassee Hurricane eye shield will remain intact, but I do wonder just how bad it will get there. I imagine it would be worse than Michael and perhaps Kate…as big as this thing is a few miles will still make a difference in whether the city stays in the western eyewall for a long time and that will of course dictate how much worse this is for the city than previous storms. Lots of potential for destruction there, but I guess we will know in a few hours. West eye wall is actually quite nasty on this one too.

Either way this is a monster and while it will suck for the small communities down in the path, thankfully the monster surge and worse eye wall wind at the coast will be largely unpopulated places…Swamps taking take the punch for Valdosta. That said, it’s gonna be bad in Georgia too…and Atlanta better be ready, not to mention the flooding potential in the mountains. All gonna be ugly.

[caneman]

Beeline for Perry

[FLLurker32]

Private jet N610FP decided to be an adventurer and fly right through the eye of Cat 4 Helene just a bit ago. I wonder if this may have caused some of the delay for recon.

[FLpanhandle91]

Lightning activity picking back up. Should be more deepening shortly.

[gailwarning]

Kinda nervous here, just northwest of Atlanta. A lot of old, large trees near my house and near my parents’ house. We are getting Opal vibes… we lost a ton of trees then.

Hey Buck. Good luck up there.

Yeah, me too. I'm in Towns County, northeast part of GA on the NC line. We're in that dreaded pink zone, most serious risk of landslides and flash flooding. Glad I have a generator and live on a hill. I'm worried about trees, even though I've taken a few down the last few years.

[Zarniwoop]

Anyone have some good links to cameras showing the effects of the storm rolling in? Preferably where it’s worst.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Private jet N610FP decided to be an adventurer and fly right through the eye of Cat 4 Helene just a bit ago. I wonder if this may have caused some of the delay for recon.

Doubtful at 45,000 feet.

[galaxy401]

I was out for a couple hours but wasn't surprised to see it a Category 4 now. Once again it will be at nightfall like most of these hurricanes seem to do.

[Janie2006]

seems that Tallahassee Hurricane eye shield will remain intact, but I do wonder just how bad it will get there. I imagine it would be worse than Michael and perhaps Kate…as big as this thing is a few miles will still make a difference in whether the city stays in the western eyewall for a long time and that will of course dictate how much worse this is for the city than previous storms. Lots of potential for destruction there, but I guess we will know in a few hours. West eye wall is actually quite nasty on this one too.

Either way this is a monster and while it will suck for the small communities down in the path, thankfully the monster surge and worse eye wall wind at the coast will be largely unpopulated places…Swamps taking take the punch for Valdosta. That said, it’s gonna be bad in Georgia too…and Atlanta better be ready, not to mention the flooding potential in the mountains. All gonna be ugly.

I was just texting a friend in Augusta and warning him to keep his eyes peeled and keep up to date with NWS Atlanta and NHC.