EPAC: JOHN - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from west of
Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo




Hurricane John Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

John continues to depict a small inner core, with earlier microwave
images depicting a small eye feature. Since that microwave pass, the
eye feature has become more prevalent on infrared imagery. The
UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 65 to 75 kt. The
subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 65 kt,
respectively. Using a blend of the intensity estimates and the
continued improved satellite depiction, the intensity is set at 65
kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is estimated to be moving northwestward at 310/5 kt.
The official forecast is shifted slightly to the right in the near
term, which follows recent satellite trends and lies near the latest
HCCA consensus aid. On the forecast track, the center of John is
forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico
or just inland later today. However, some of the global model fields
do linger the system offshore near the coast a little longer,
particularly the ECMWF global model. In the long term, a turn back
to the west-northwest is anticipated as the system weakens and is
steered by the ridge over northern Mexico.

The overall environment remains favorable for John to continue to
strengthen until landfall with very warm sea surface temperatures,
low wind shear, abundant moisture throughout all levels of the
atmosphere. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to call for
strengthening up until landfall and shows a peak intensity of 75 kt,
which is slightly lower than previous intensity peak due to the
latest forecast showing the system moving inland a little faster
than the previous forecast.

John has very large rain shield and flooding impacts will extend
well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be
emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week
for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and
Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacán.

2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern
Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are imminent. Tropical
Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and
tropical storm are ongoing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.5N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...JOHN STATIONARY...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[ScottNAtlanta]

I really feel for these people on the Mexican coast. This thing is just stuck on top of them and wont move.

[Sciencerocks]

[HurricaneEnzo]

John is in the running for ugliest hurricane of all time. Unfortunately still dropping deadly amounts of rain though.

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

Hurricane John Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

John has slowed its forward motion this afternoon. A scatterometer
pass late this morning confirmed that the motion had slowed and the
center is lingering offshore. The inner core of convection has
become less pronounced and the circulation may be feeling the
orographic effects of the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Mexico. However, a strong convective curved band extends in the
southwest semi-circle. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have
remained fairly steady this afternoon between 65 to 75 kt. Given the
current satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for
this advisory remains at 65 kt.

The hurricane has not been moving much since the previous advisory
and the estimated motion is 325/ 2 kt. This slow motion is forecast
to continue as John approaches the coastline, moving along the
coast or just inland later tonight or early tomorrow. Some of the
global model fields keep the system offshore near the coast a
little longer. In the long term, a turn back to the west-northwest
is anticipated as the system weakens and is steered by a high
pressure ridge located over northern Mexico.

The overall environment remains favorable for John to strengthen
with very warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear.
However, John's proximity to the coastline may continue to disrupt
the circulation and not allow for much additional strengthening. The
latest NHC intensity forecast shows some slight strengthening over
the next 12 h. Models are in fairly good agreement that steady
weakening will begin Friday, with the system becoming a depression
on Friday night.

John has a very large rain shield, and flooding impacts will extend
well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be
emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week
for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacán.

2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern
Mexico, where hurricane conditions are imminent. Tropical Storm
Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area, where
tropical storm conditions are ongoing or imminent.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.6N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.0N 103.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 19.8N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 20.6N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[Kingarabian]

Doubt this is a hurricane

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
MICHOACAN...
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 103.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Zihuatanejo has
been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

The convection near the center of John has weakened significantly
over the past 12 hours. A curved band off to the southwest and west
of John's center is producing a continuous large area of deep
convection. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, but the objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49 to 56 kt. Since the convection
over the center has warmed on infrared imagery and appears to be
less organized over the past 12 hours, the initial intensity is
being lowered to 60 kt for this advisory.

John has been moving northwestward, or 315/4 kt, which is a bit
faster than before. This slow motion is forecast to continue for
another 12 to 24 h, as John moves near the coastline or just inland
late tonight and early tomorrow. After that, a turn to the
west-northwest with some acceleration is forecast, if John survives
its interaction with the higher topography in this part of Mexico.
The latest track forecast is a little to the left and slightly
faster than the previous forecast, and is very near the lastest HCCA
corrected consensus aid.

It seems unlikely that John will be able to restrengthen since the
center is now just 20 miles from the coastline and is forecast to
move even closer to the coast over the next several hours. Since
John's core has been disrupted by the topography today, it is
unlikely to recover, despite relatively favorable environmental
conditions. Little change in strength, or perhaps slow weakening,
is likely over the next 12 hours until the center reaches the
coastline. Thereafter, faster weakening is expected on Friday as the
center moves near or along the coastline. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance suite. It is
quite possible that John could weaken to a remnant low and dissipate
sooner than forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacán.

2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 103.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 18.3N 103.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 19.5N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 20.2N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 20.8N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[zeehag]

funny dronk storm changed its course again.. has anyone actually seen this or paid attention?? i see nothing anywhere except from mexican weather reporting...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a partially
exposed surface center with a primary banding feature wrapping
around from the southeast. A few fragmented intermittent bursts of
deep convection are also evident in the northwest quadrant of the
cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 55 kt and is based on
the TAFB and SAB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and a
UW-CIMSS DMINT objective estimate using SSMIS F16-17 passes of 56
and 55 kt, respectively.

Gradual weakening should continue as the cyclone approaches and
moves inland. The high terrain of the Sierra Madre Del Sur
mountains is expected to disrupt what remains of John's inner
core and should cause a faster rate of weakening. Therefore, John
is expected to become a remnant low in 36 hrs. If the surface
center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should
re-emerge over the water in a few days; however, regeneration
appears unlikely. The NHC intensity forecast is weighed heavily on
the global model guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus.

John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/4
kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in
forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction
with the rugged mountainous terrain. The track forecast favors a
compromise of the global model solutions and is just to the right
of the HCCA consensus aid.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through today. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacán.

2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.8N 102.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.3N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 19.6N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024

John's satellite depiction has banding mainly concentrated on the
southern semicircle. The center of the system is very near or just
touching the coast of southwestern Mexico. There continues to be
burst of convection within the curved bands to the south of the
center, and GLM data depicts plenty of lightning within the bands.
The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
range from 35 to 55 kt. Given the satellite presentation will lean
to the higher side of these estimates, with an initial intensity for
this advisory at 50 kt.

The center of John is right along the coast, and gradual weakening
should continue as the storm moves inland or moves along the
coastline. Later today, the high mountainous terrain will disrupt
the low-level circulation and a faster rate of weakening should
ensue. Beyond the next 24 h, the forecast is highly dependent if the
center of John survives the interaction with land, and could
dissipate sooner than what is currently forecast. If the surface
center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should
re-emerge over the water in a few days, although models do not show
regeneration and keep the system as a remnant low. The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the HCCA and simple consensus aids.

John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/3
kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in
forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction
with mountainous terrain. The track forecast is similar to the
previous forecast and lies to the right of the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacán.

2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOHN MAKES LANDFALL...
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 103.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[galaxy401]

Gone again. Hopefully for good this time.

BULLETIN
Remnants Of John Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOHN DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO...
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 103.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[Astromanía]

It has been rough times for Acapulco, last year they faced Otis and this year Jhon, although it didn't make landfall on Acapulco it's rainbands flooded the city that it's still not recovered form a cat 5 hurricane , I have seen some horrible videos of the flood and for now there are 22 confirmed deaths in Mexico