ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Beef Stew
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3441 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Radar velocities seem to support an even higher intensity. I'm seeing velocities up to 145 kt at about 8,000-9,000 feet.


What's an approximate conversion factor for radar velocities at that height?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3442 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:14 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Radar showing 172mph at about 7500ft aloft on the Tallahassee radar. Nuts


My God.... keep that stuff above ground level
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3443 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Radar velocities seem to support an even higher intensity. I'm seeing velocities up to 145 kt at about 8,000-9,000 feet.

I think the current intensity is near 130kts since instant Dvorak analysis supports a T6.5 and has supported that for the past 2 hours. But constraints and recon don't support it yet.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3444 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:16 pm

Saved loops from different radar sites

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3445 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:16 pm

Beef Stew wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Radar velocities seem to support an even higher intensity. I'm seeing velocities up to 145 kt at about 8,000-9,000 feet.


What's an approximate conversion factor for radar velocities at that height?


That would be about 130 kt.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3446 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:18 pm

How much of an effect will this dry air have on it? Will it choke or spit it out?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3447 Postby StormPyrate » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:18 pm

Winding down here in Clearwater / Largo area
max gust was 74 at my house
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3448 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:18 pm

ROCK wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:If this had more time it could have easily been a cat 5


Most likely. Had some internal issues yesterday that had to mix out. I wouldn't want to be in ATL. Not sure Atlanta can handle the winds they are about to receive let alone the water.

If it passes east of us wind wont be as big of an issue. I'm more worried about the rain. Rivers around here are already past flood stage
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3449 Postby technikal » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:18 pm

Power just went out here in Tallahassee. So it begins.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3450 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:18 pm

tolakram wrote:Saved loops from different radar sites

https://i.imgur.com/JcaHbTn.gif

https://i.imgur.com/TBqeF7A.gif

Possible EWRC trying to commence? That outer band really looks like it’s trying to become an outer eyewall.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3451 Postby Travorum » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:18 pm

SAR coming in at 23:30z. Max recorded wind about 120kts:
ImageImage
Platform: RCM-1
Acquisition Date: 2024-09-26 23:36:13 UTC
Storm Name: AL092024 / HELENE
Storm ID: AL09
Storm Center Longitude: -84.258
Storm Center Latitude: 28.560
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 33.520
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 115.34
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 121.61
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 93.16
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 100.04
RMax (nmi): 13.00 - 20.00
Platform: RADARSAT-2
Acquisition Date: 2024-09-26 23:38:23 UTC
Storm Name: AL092024 / HELENE
Storm ID: AL09
Storm Center Longitude: -84.255
Storm Center Latitude: 28.564
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 35.065
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 107.71
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 115.39
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 92.25
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 98.25
RMax (nmi): 12.00 - 21.00
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3452 Postby TampaWxLurker » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:20 pm

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3453 Postby drewschmaltz » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:21 pm

Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3454 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:21 pm

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue·
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Western Taylor County in Florida will see landfall of Category 4 Hurricane Helene before midnight.

Helene will cross Interstate 10 and be in Georgia by 2 AM and zoom up I-75 leaving a path of destruction into Macon.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3455 Postby Xyls » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:22 pm

Honestly, this may be early. But this track may actually be one of the best to avoid major damage from this hurricane from where it can go since it seems to be likely it will be near the Ecofina River State Park. Looks like Tallahassee will avoid very narrowly getting hit by the eyewall, and Perry may only get a glance so the worst of the incoming landfalling winds may actually be in a very sparsely populated area.
Last edited by Xyls on Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3456 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:22 pm

Looking like landfall will occur in roughly an hour, give or take
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3457 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:25 pm

drewschmaltz wrote:Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.

NOOOOO!!!!!
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3458 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:25 pm

-90C convection lining up a quarter of the eyewall:

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3459 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:26 pm

I believe this will be the last storm named Helene
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ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3460 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:27 pm

2 feet of hurricane tide in neighborhhod on Sanibel...Equates to 5 to 7 feet at shore...

I no longer live there...My beautiful house is a bull-dozed lot thanks to Ian...
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