ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mitchell]

West Tampa Buoy in 150 feet of water reported wind sustained 62kts gusting to 93 kts
Wave heights 25 feet with 15 second period. REALLY impressive sea state for the GOM

[Beef Stew]

AF going in for another pass.

[hurricaneCW]

Honestly, this may be early. But this track may actually be one of the best to avoid major damage from this hurricane from where it can go since it seems to be likely it will be near the Ecofina River State Park. Looks like Tallahassee will avoid very narrowly getting hit by the eyewall, and Perry may only get a glance so the worst of the incoming landfalling winds may actually be in a very sparsely populated area.

The surge will be far worse than where the strongest winds are.

[fwbbreeze]

How much of an effect will this dry air have on it? Will it choke or spit it out?

I dont think it's dry air....I think the radar is unable to penetrate the rain.


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[Powellrm]

Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.

Slight turn west? What? Where did you get this from?

[WaveBreaking]

Eyewall trying to bounce back on radar

[ScottNAtlanta]

Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.

Slight turn west? What? Where did you get this from?

I didn't see it either after I panicked first

[WaveBreaking]

Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.

Slight turn west? What? Where did you get this from?

Eye made a slight wobble west in the past few frames.

[GTStorm]

Tornado warning sirens going off here in Savannah.

Looking ahead...selfishly hoping for that N-to-NW turn.

[tolakram]

Wobble watching time

[JtSmarts]

Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.

Slight turn west? What? Where did you get this from?

Eye made a slight wobble west in the past few frames.

Reed was saying the same thing, talking about it moving due north.

[tolakram]

COD has radar, here's a good view

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-FL_Panhandle-comp_radar-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[weeniepatrol]

NHC Appreciation Post:

Went back and read the first advisories.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/a ... .002.shtml?

It is JAW-DROPPING how remarkably accurate NHCs' initial forecasts were, for a system that had not even formed yet. Stunning!

[Powellrm]

Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.

Slight turn west? What? Where did you get this from?

Eye made a slight wobble west in the past few frames.

I do not see that. don’t get sucked in by a few frames.

[fwbbreeze]

Dr. Knabb on TWC has been commenting on a slight west turn which in reality means the storm would be moving due north.

[WaveBreaking]

Large swath of >150 mph winds aloft in the east eyewall on radar velocity.

[Hurricane Mike]

Surge up to 7 ft in Clearwater now

[JtSmarts]

NHC Appreciation Post:

Went back and read the first advisories.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/a ... .002.shtml?

It is JAW-DROPPING how remarkably accurate NHCs' initial forecasts were, for a system that had not even formed yet. Stunning!

They were pretty good with intensity as well starting off with a prediction for a near major, and never going too high or staying too low.

[caneman]

Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.

Slight turn west? What? Where did you get this from?

Eye made a slight wobble west in the past few frames.

Nope still heading to perry

[Beef Stew]

Eye is almost taking on a square shape due to some strong mesovorticies rotating within it. I don't thing Helene is going to let up whatsoever until the coast forces her to.