ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1839471927938982009

[Steve]

Dr. Knabb on TWC has been commenting on a slight west turn which in reality means the storm would be moving due north.

That’s what I see. Maybe 5 degrees but between 0-5

[TallyTracker]

Wobble watching time

https://i.imgur.com/kxBhtge.gif

I’m about to throw up watching these wobbles…

[Travorum]

Helene is still deepening coming up to landfall, 941.4mb extrap with 73kt FL/47kt SFMR.

[Texashawk]

TWC says that it now appears Helene is turning left just enough for Tallahassee to potentially catch the western eye wall…

[Powellrm]

Yeah, looks dead due north to me. Also, rain really wrapping the western eyewall pretty darn hard. Some weird radar readings. Edit: I don’t think it’s a western “wobble”, I think it’s just that western eyewall getting wrapped.

[tolakram]

[Javlin]

Slight turn west? Man, I hope Tallahassee is ready. I'm still amazed at the power of this in CFL. It's just different.

Slight turn west? What? Where did you get this from?

I thought this might occur the closer it got to the ULL that has been the key for steering the last 36hrs the cloud movement on WV tells the tale.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

[Jag95]

NHC Appreciation Post:

Went back and read the first advisories.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/a ... .002.shtml?

It is JAW-DROPPING how remarkably accurate NHCs' initial forecasts were, for a system that had not even formed yet. Stunning!

Modeling and NHC forecasting have come such a long way since my early days back in the '70s. It continues to amaze me how these models can sniff out a system days ahead of time. And the NHC, if I'm in their cone at 72 hours I'm making solid plans. Best wishes to those in the path of this one.

[Steve]

Yeah, looks dead due north to me. Also, rain really wrapping the western eyewall pretty darn hard. Some weird radar readings.

Juiced on the western side. That should slide sw and the re-burst on the east side unless it stays north heavy coming up.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wobble watching time

https://i.imgur.com/kxBhtge.gif

I’m about to throw up watching these wobbles…

Me too!

[weeniepatrol]

NHC Appreciation Post:

Went back and read the first advisories.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/a ... .002.shtml?

It is JAW-DROPPING how remarkably accurate NHCs' initial forecasts were, for a system that had not even formed yet. Stunning!

Modeling and NHC forecasting have come such a long way since my early days back in the '70s. It continues to amaze me how these models can sniff out a system days ahead of time. And the NHC, if I'm in their cone at 72 hours I'm making solid plans. Best wishes to those in the path of this one.

Helene is an excellent example of the benefits of the Potential Tropical Cyclone product/status, allowing NHC to issue warnings and advisories an extra day sooner than its actual formation.

[WaveBreaking]

https://i.imgur.com/z9RmivL.png

Just two more sides and we would have gotten Saturn’s hexagon

[Powellrm]

Yeah, looks dead due north to me. Also, rain really wrapping the western eyewall pretty darn hard. Some weird radar readings.

Juiced on the western side. That should slide sw and the re-burst on the east side unless it stays north heavy coming up.

Super juiced. Really flexing.

[Travorum]

938.4mb extrap from Air Force

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 19 20240927
013400 2912N 08354W 6964 02669 9415 +190 +121 219053 063 044 001 00
013430 2912N 08354W 6964 02669 9418 +182 +122 215038 048 037 002 00
013500 2915N 08357W 6970 02660 9417 +182 +122 222027 034 030 001 00
013530 2916N 08358W 6969 02658 9414 +182 +121 233022 024 028 002 00
013600 2917N 08359W 6969 02655 9413 +180 +120 234018 021 033 002 00
013630 2919N 08400W 6963 02668 9418 +181 +119 226022 026 031 002 00
013700 2920N 08402W 6971 02660 9414 +188 +117 222025 026 031 002 00
013730 2922N 08403W 6967 02665 9406 +195 +117 233021 025 032 001 00
013800 2923N 08405W 6966 02662 9390 +209 +117 239017 020 028 002 00
013830 2924N 08406W 6963 02663 9384 +213 +117 221013 014 032 000 03
013900 2926N 08407W 6966 02660 9391 +207 +120 260002 011 028 003 03
013930 2927N 08408W 6969 02665 9401 +203 +123 069017 022 045 003 03
014000 2929N 08408W 6968 02672 9416 +193 +125 075028 029 045 003 03
014030 2930N 08407W 6967 02673 9424 +184 +126 089031 032 056 001 03
014100 2931N 08405W 6963 02682 9438 +173 +125 088031 032 051 002 00
014130 2932N 08404W 6966 02679 9447 +166 +123 098033 034 055 001 00
014200 2933N 08403W 6970 02677 9459 +157 +120 103037 040 065 007 00
014230 2934N 08401W 6963 02689 9474 +143 +118 121047 052 080 009 00
014300 2935N 08400W 6973 02689 9505 +125 +113 134056 059 090 016 00
014330 2936N 08358W 6945 02729 9525 +115 +104 131079 084 090 016 00

[Steve]

938.4. Damn. That’s big.

[jdjaguar]

https://i.imgur.com/z9RmivL.png

Hexagonal
Bye bye Panacea
Damn

[Powellrm]

Speaking of juiced, just heard report of 938mb.

[galaxy401]

Going to make my uneducated forecast and say that Helene is at 125 kts now.

[tolakram]

013330 2911N 08352W 6963 02684 9414 +202 +119 226066 073 047 001 00