ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

938.4. Damn. That’s big.

It was deepening right to landfall…

[CrazyC83]

Based on radar velocities and the coverage, I'd actually go with an intensity of 130 kt.

[Kazmit]

One more hour and Beryl would be toast.

[Beef Stew]

AF looks to be positioning for at least one more pass

[tolakram]

013730 2922N 08403W 6967 02665 9406 +195 +117 233021 025 032 001 00
013800 2923N 08405W 6966 02662 9390 +209 +117 239017 020 028 002 00
013830 2924N 08406W 6963 02663 9384 +213 +117 221013 014 032 000 03
013900 2926N 08407W 6966 02660 9391 +207 +120 260002 011 028 003 03
013930 2927N 08408W 6969 02665 9401 +203 +123 069017 022 045 003 03

[tolakram]

[jdjaguar]

Based on radar velocities and the coverage, I'd actually go with an intensity of 130 kt.

That’s 150mph!
Time to pray

[emings]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/wrTjvrwiT9cwchhk/?mibextid=oFDknk

Water rescues ongoing on Fort Myers Beach 250 miles away from the center...unreal

[Steve]

938.4. Damn. That’s big.

It was deepening right to landfall…

Yeah. It wasn’t 100% from a few days ago but we ended up hitting Phase 8 MJO instead of the circle which was in question. Shows what the potential of 2024 is, and this is late September in the north Gulf.

5300 lightning strikes last hour.

[Powellrm]

A few days ago, many models had Helene strengthening but then slightly weakening prior to landfall. I wonder if that’s what the dry air delay did. Maybe the models weren’t anticipating the length of the delay and were projecting an EWRC?

5,300 lightning events in the eyewall area just in the last hour. Western eyewall is so juiced. Mesovorts are just bumping.

[mpic]

OMG the coast from Tampa all the wat north and northwest seeing record storm surges. This is definitely catastrophic.

[aspen]

Seems to be 938mb right now, so landfall will probably be 936-939. Might level off or slightly rise in the final hour.

If Helene is indeed 130 kt, then it’ll make landfall at almost the exact same intensity as Laura…directly south of Tallahassee.

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839481872067555671

[Joe Snow]

Based on radar velocities and the coverage, I'd actually go with an intensity of 130 kt.

That’s 150mph!
Time to pray

149.601 to be exact. That is scary

[Jag95]

Reed Timmer is lined up on Hiway 98 just west of Perry. He should get the eye.

[Texashawk]

What is going on with the eye on radar? Looking almost like it’s trying to wrap even tighter on the western side…

[aspen]

A few days ago, many models had Helene strengthening but then slightly weakening prior to landfall. I wonder if that’s what the dry air delay did. Maybe the models weren’t anticipating the length of the delay and were projecting an EWRC?

5,300 lightning events in the eyewall area just in the last hour. Western eyewall is so juiced. Mesovorts are just bumping.

I think the models may have thought the increasing magnitude of shear would finally take its toll on Helene despite it being in a favorable vector. But as we can see, Helene held up just fine.

[Steve]

What is going on with the eye on radar? Looking almost like it’s trying to wrap even tighter on the western side…

Mesos rotating and slamming into it. /dont see that every day

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on radar velocities and the coverage, I'd actually go with an intensity of 130 kt.

Agreed. Seeing bins flirting with 180mph on radar about 5500 feet up. I’m not sure exactly of the conversion factor at that height, but 0.85 puts it right about at that level.

[Hurricane Mike]

Wow, Keaton Beach is just about under the northeast eyewall.