ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Just west of Perry.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839487918022201688

[Powellrm]

Am I hearing that the nearest storm surge gauge is all the way at cedar key?

[Travorum]

Down to 937.2 extrap, 128kts FL in the SW SE eyewall. I don't think the time works out but I would love to see an eastern eyewall pass before landfall.

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 23 20240927
021400 2935N 08356W 6975 02637 9372 +211 +123 225023 027 022 001 00
021430 2934N 08354W 6965 02652 9382 +203 +123 226031 032 020 001 00
021500 2933N 08353W 6963 02657 9377 +216 +122 227036 038 020 000 00
021530 2931N 08352W 6970 02658 9380 +221 +122 229039 039 019 001 00
021600 2930N 08350W 6964 02672 9385 +224 +121 233043 047 028 001 00
021630 2929N 08349W 6973 02675 9400 +220 +121 231055 060 041 002 00
021700 2927N 08348W 6959 02702 9419 +212 +121 237066 070 049 001 00
021730 2926N 08346W 6978 02694 9441 +204 +123 242086 096 065 001 00
021800 2924N 08345W 6957 02745 9482 +188 +123 242106 109 079 002 00
021830 2923N 08343W 6980 02738 9500 +195 +122 241109 112 092 005 00
021900 2922N 08342W 6967 02785 9555 +170 +119 233126 127 092 005 00
021930 2921N 08341W 6968 02800 9581 +162 +115 229126 128 086 010 00
022000 2920N 08340W 6966 02817 9598 +160 +109 225122 124 085 005 00
022030 2919N 08339W 6966 02828 9617 +156 +103 223120 121 081 002 00
022100 2918N 08338W 6969 02839 9633 +155 +099 221115 120 075 002 00
022130 2917N 08337W 6970 02854 9655 +151 +095 221111 114 073 000 00
022200 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9687 +139 +091 219105 109 069 000 00
022230 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9705 +135 +088 220105 106 066 001 00
022300 2913N 08333W 6961 02908 9717 +137 +085 222103 105 065 002 00
022330 2912N 08332W 6978 02901 9728 +140 +082 222101 102 064 001 00

[ronjon]

The ICON is king. Looks like Helene making a beeline to Steinhatchee.

[cheezyWXguy]

Down to 937.2 extrap, 128kts FL in the SW eyewall. I don't think the time works out but I would love to see an eastern eyewall pass before landfall.

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 23 20240927
021400 2935N 08356W 6975 02637 9372 +211 +123 225023 027 022 001 00
021430 2934N 08354W 6965 02652 9382 +203 +123 226031 032 020 001 00
021500 2933N 08353W 6963 02657 9377 +216 +122 227036 038 020 000 00
021530 2931N 08352W 6970 02658 9380 +221 +122 229039 039 019 001 00
021600 2930N 08350W 6964 02672 9385 +224 +121 233043 047 028 001 00
021630 2929N 08349W 6973 02675 9400 +220 +121 231055 060 041 002 00
021700 2927N 08348W 6959 02702 9419 +212 +121 237066 070 049 001 00
021730 2926N 08346W 6978 02694 9441 +204 +123 242086 096 065 001 00
021800 2924N 08345W 6957 02745 9482 +188 +123 242106 109 079 002 00
021830 2923N 08343W 6980 02738 9500 +195 +122 241109 112 092 005 00
021900 2922N 08342W 6967 02785 9555 +170 +119 233126 127 092 005 00
021930 2921N 08341W 6968 02800 9581 +162 +115 229126 128 086 010 00
022000 2920N 08340W 6966 02817 9598 +160 +109 225122 124 085 005 00
022030 2919N 08339W 6966 02828 9617 +156 +103 223120 121 081 002 00
022100 2918N 08338W 6969 02839 9633 +155 +099 221115 120 075 002 00
022130 2917N 08337W 6970 02854 9655 +151 +095 221111 114 073 000 00
022200 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9687 +139 +091 219105 109 069 000 00
022230 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9705 +135 +088 220105 106 066 001 00
022300 2913N 08333W 6961 02908 9717 +137 +085 222103 105 065 002 00
022330 2912N 08332W 6978 02901 9728 +140 +082 222101 102 064 001 00

Yeah it’s probably too late now to catch the max winds. Seems that part of the storm has already moved onshore

[chaser1]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839481872067555671

Is he at Alligator Point near Panacea?

He was. He tried to relocate E-SE about 60-90 minutes ago.

Good man! Though not much on the lonely stretch of 98 between there and Perry.

[Beef Stew]

Down to 937.2 extrap, 128kts FL in the SW eyewall. I don't think the time works out but I would love to see an eastern eyewall pass before landfall.

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 23 20240927
021400 2935N 08356W 6975 02637 9372 +211 +123 225023 027 022 001 00
021430 2934N 08354W 6965 02652 9382 +203 +123 226031 032 020 001 00
021500 2933N 08353W 6963 02657 9377 +216 +122 227036 038 020 000 00
021530 2931N 08352W 6970 02658 9380 +221 +122 229039 039 019 001 00
021600 2930N 08350W 6964 02672 9385 +224 +121 233043 047 028 001 00
021630 2929N 08349W 6973 02675 9400 +220 +121 231055 060 041 002 00
021700 2927N 08348W 6959 02702 9419 +212 +121 237066 070 049 001 00
021730 2926N 08346W 6978 02694 9441 +204 +123 242086 096 065 001 00
021800 2924N 08345W 6957 02745 9482 +188 +123 242106 109 079 002 00
021830 2923N 08343W 6980 02738 9500 +195 +122 241109 112 092 005 00
021900 2922N 08342W 6967 02785 9555 +170 +119 233126 127 092 005 00
021930 2921N 08341W 6968 02800 9581 +162 +115 229126 128 086 010 00
022000 2920N 08340W 6966 02817 9598 +160 +109 225122 124 085 005 00
022030 2919N 08339W 6966 02828 9617 +156 +103 223120 121 081 002 00
022100 2918N 08338W 6969 02839 9633 +155 +099 221115 120 075 002 00
022130 2917N 08337W 6970 02854 9655 +151 +095 221111 114 073 000 00
022200 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9687 +139 +091 219105 109 069 000 00
022230 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9705 +135 +088 220105 106 066 001 00
022300 2913N 08333W 6961 02908 9717 +137 +085 222103 105 065 002 00
022330 2912N 08332W 6978 02901 9728 +140 +082 222101 102 064 001 00

SW eyewall has been weaker than the northern portion all evening. Based on this, I'd estimate peak intensity to be (a possibly conservative estimate of) roughly 125 kts, or 145 mph.

[Teban54]

Down to 937.2 extrap, 128kts FL in the SW eyewall. I don't think the time works out but I would love to see an eastern eyewall pass before landfall.

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 23 20240927
021400 2935N 08356W 6975 02637 9372 +211 +123 225023 027 022 001 00
021430 2934N 08354W 6965 02652 9382 +203 +123 226031 032 020 001 00
021500 2933N 08353W 6963 02657 9377 +216 +122 227036 038 020 000 00
021530 2931N 08352W 6970 02658 9380 +221 +122 229039 039 019 001 00
021600 2930N 08350W 6964 02672 9385 +224 +121 233043 047 028 001 00
021630 2929N 08349W 6973 02675 9400 +220 +121 231055 060 041 002 00
021700 2927N 08348W 6959 02702 9419 +212 +121 237066 070 049 001 00
021730 2926N 08346W 6978 02694 9441 +204 +123 242086 096 065 001 00
021800 2924N 08345W 6957 02745 9482 +188 +123 242106 109 079 002 00
021830 2923N 08343W 6980 02738 9500 +195 +122 241109 112 092 005 00
021900 2922N 08342W 6967 02785 9555 +170 +119 233126 127 092 005 00
021930 2921N 08341W 6968 02800 9581 +162 +115 229126 128 086 010 00
022000 2920N 08340W 6966 02817 9598 +160 +109 225122 124 085 005 00
022030 2919N 08339W 6966 02828 9617 +156 +103 223120 121 081 002 00
022100 2918N 08338W 6969 02839 9633 +155 +099 221115 120 075 002 00
022130 2917N 08337W 6970 02854 9655 +151 +095 221111 114 073 000 00
022200 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9687 +139 +091 219105 109 069 000 00
022230 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9705 +135 +088 220105 106 066 001 00
022300 2913N 08333W 6961 02908 9717 +137 +085 222103 105 065 002 00
022330 2912N 08332W 6978 02901 9728 +140 +082 222101 102 064 001 00

It almost feels like the last few recon passes from both AF and NOAA just before landfall were purposely avoiding the E eyewall, even though that was where the strongest winds were measured in the afternoon. Was it as a safety precaution or for some other reasons?

Either way, unfortunately I think we've missed the chance to measure the strongest FL winds from Helene. Hopefully NHC will account for undersampling in post-season analysis using other evidence such as radar velocities (which they did for Zeta).

[CronkPSU]

flooding in clearwater

https://x.com/10TampaBay/status/1839482671661044037

[Powellrm]

The ICON is king. Looks like Helene making a beeline to Steinhatchee.

ICON has been money. Really gained my respect for some great calls over the last few years. It’s been largely my go to. Sniffs things out early.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like 140 mph / 937-939 mbar will be its peak intensity as it’s making landfall. Eye is beginning to fill so intensification has stopped. The rate it was going earlier was a bit insane and i highly think that had Helene had built a smaller inner core earlier on, those early HAFS runs of a high-end C5 would’ve verified. Nevertheless, 2024 proving it can strike back and hard, unfortunately.

[Teban54]

Down to 937.2 extrap, 128kts FL in the SW eyewall. I don't think the time works out but I would love to see an eastern eyewall pass before landfall.

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 23 20240927
021400 2935N 08356W 6975 02637 9372 +211 +123 225023 027 022 001 00
021430 2934N 08354W 6965 02652 9382 +203 +123 226031 032 020 001 00
021500 2933N 08353W 6963 02657 9377 +216 +122 227036 038 020 000 00
021530 2931N 08352W 6970 02658 9380 +221 +122 229039 039 019 001 00
021600 2930N 08350W 6964 02672 9385 +224 +121 233043 047 028 001 00
021630 2929N 08349W 6973 02675 9400 +220 +121 231055 060 041 002 00
021700 2927N 08348W 6959 02702 9419 +212 +121 237066 070 049 001 00
021730 2926N 08346W 6978 02694 9441 +204 +123 242086 096 065 001 00
021800 2924N 08345W 6957 02745 9482 +188 +123 242106 109 079 002 00
021830 2923N 08343W 6980 02738 9500 +195 +122 241109 112 092 005 00
021900 2922N 08342W 6967 02785 9555 +170 +119 233126 127 092 005 00
021930 2921N 08341W 6968 02800 9581 +162 +115 229126 128 086 010 00
022000 2920N 08340W 6966 02817 9598 +160 +109 225122 124 085 005 00
022030 2919N 08339W 6966 02828 9617 +156 +103 223120 121 081 002 00
022100 2918N 08338W 6969 02839 9633 +155 +099 221115 120 075 002 00
022130 2917N 08337W 6970 02854 9655 +151 +095 221111 114 073 000 00
022200 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9687 +139 +091 219105 109 069 000 00
022230 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9705 +135 +088 220105 106 066 001 00
022300 2913N 08333W 6961 02908 9717 +137 +085 222103 105 065 002 00
022330 2912N 08332W 6978 02901 9728 +140 +082 222101 102 064 001 00

SW eyewall has been weaker than the northern portion all evening. Based on this, I'd estimate peak intensity to be (a possibly conservative estimate of) roughly 125 kts, or 145 mph.

FYI, the original post has now been corrected to say SE eyewall.

[Travorum]

Down to 937.2 extrap, 128kts FL in the SW eyewall. I don't think the time works out but I would love to see an eastern eyewall pass before landfall.

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 23 20240927
021400 2935N 08356W 6975 02637 9372 +211 +123 225023 027 022 001 00
021430 2934N 08354W 6965 02652 9382 +203 +123 226031 032 020 001 00
021500 2933N 08353W 6963 02657 9377 +216 +122 227036 038 020 000 00
021530 2931N 08352W 6970 02658 9380 +221 +122 229039 039 019 001 00
021600 2930N 08350W 6964 02672 9385 +224 +121 233043 047 028 001 00
021630 2929N 08349W 6973 02675 9400 +220 +121 231055 060 041 002 00
021700 2927N 08348W 6959 02702 9419 +212 +121 237066 070 049 001 00
021730 2926N 08346W 6978 02694 9441 +204 +123 242086 096 065 001 00
021800 2924N 08345W 6957 02745 9482 +188 +123 242106 109 079 002 00
021830 2923N 08343W 6980 02738 9500 +195 +122 241109 112 092 005 00
021900 2922N 08342W 6967 02785 9555 +170 +119 233126 127 092 005 00
021930 2921N 08341W 6968 02800 9581 +162 +115 229126 128 086 010 00
022000 2920N 08340W 6966 02817 9598 +160 +109 225122 124 085 005 00
022030 2919N 08339W 6966 02828 9617 +156 +103 223120 121 081 002 00
022100 2918N 08338W 6969 02839 9633 +155 +099 221115 120 075 002 00
022130 2917N 08337W 6970 02854 9655 +151 +095 221111 114 073 000 00
022200 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9687 +139 +091 219105 109 069 000 00
022230 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9705 +135 +088 220105 106 066 001 00
022300 2913N 08333W 6961 02908 9717 +137 +085 222103 105 065 002 00
022330 2912N 08332W 6978 02901 9728 +140 +082 222101 102 064 001 00

SW eyewall has been weaker than the northern portion all evening. Based on this, I'd estimate peak intensity to be (a possibly conservative estimate of) roughly 125 kts, or 145 mph.

while everything you have said is true I have also made a drunken mistake and called it the SW eyewall, it is actually the SE eyewall. SE is not the strongest part of the storm but is far from the weakest.

[Sanibel]

Morgerman is getting blasted by a fast onset eyewall...

[Steve]

Ryan Hall’s people said it turned out not to be mechanical but some extra drops.

[Jag95]

Perry should be in the eyewall in the next few minutes. Enjoy the power while it lasts. There were caravans of power trucks heading down I-65 yesterday. Hopefully it won't take too long to get it back up

[Beef Stew]

Down to 937.2 extrap, 128kts FL in the SW eyewall. I don't think the time works out but I would love to see an eastern eyewall pass before landfall.

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 23 20240927
021400 2935N 08356W 6975 02637 9372 +211 +123 225023 027 022 001 00
021430 2934N 08354W 6965 02652 9382 +203 +123 226031 032 020 001 00
021500 2933N 08353W 6963 02657 9377 +216 +122 227036 038 020 000 00
021530 2931N 08352W 6970 02658 9380 +221 +122 229039 039 019 001 00
021600 2930N 08350W 6964 02672 9385 +224 +121 233043 047 028 001 00
021630 2929N 08349W 6973 02675 9400 +220 +121 231055 060 041 002 00
021700 2927N 08348W 6959 02702 9419 +212 +121 237066 070 049 001 00
021730 2926N 08346W 6978 02694 9441 +204 +123 242086 096 065 001 00
021800 2924N 08345W 6957 02745 9482 +188 +123 242106 109 079 002 00
021830 2923N 08343W 6980 02738 9500 +195 +122 241109 112 092 005 00
021900 2922N 08342W 6967 02785 9555 +170 +119 233126 127 092 005 00
021930 2921N 08341W 6968 02800 9581 +162 +115 229126 128 086 010 00
022000 2920N 08340W 6966 02817 9598 +160 +109 225122 124 085 005 00
022030 2919N 08339W 6966 02828 9617 +156 +103 223120 121 081 002 00
022100 2918N 08338W 6969 02839 9633 +155 +099 221115 120 075 002 00
022130 2917N 08337W 6970 02854 9655 +151 +095 221111 114 073 000 00
022200 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9687 +139 +091 219105 109 069 000 00
022230 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9705 +135 +088 220105 106 066 001 00
022300 2913N 08333W 6961 02908 9717 +137 +085 222103 105 065 002 00
022330 2912N 08332W 6978 02901 9728 +140 +082 222101 102 064 001 00

SW eyewall has been weaker than the northern portion all evening. Based on this, I'd estimate peak intensity to be (a possibly conservative estimate of) roughly 125 kts, or 145 mph.

FYI, the original post has now been corrected to say SE eyewall.

Ah, my mistake. I should've double checked the heading before making my statement.

[karenfromheaven]

Watching a bunch of chasers out in the open near Perry. Can't help but wonder how many will get hurt with this, Perry is not that far inland.

And it looks like only one of them is wearing a helmet.

Hope they brought a PFD. Hwy 98 only follows the coast, not inland away from the surge.

[Travorum]

Down to 937.2 extrap, 128kts FL in the SW eyewall. I don't think the time works out but I would love to see an eastern eyewall pass before landfall.

AF306 1809A HELENE HDOB 23 20240927
021400 2935N 08356W 6975 02637 9372 +211 +123 225023 027 022 001 00
021430 2934N 08354W 6965 02652 9382 +203 +123 226031 032 020 001 00
021500 2933N 08353W 6963 02657 9377 +216 +122 227036 038 020 000 00
021530 2931N 08352W 6970 02658 9380 +221 +122 229039 039 019 001 00
021600 2930N 08350W 6964 02672 9385 +224 +121 233043 047 028 001 00
021630 2929N 08349W 6973 02675 9400 +220 +121 231055 060 041 002 00
021700 2927N 08348W 6959 02702 9419 +212 +121 237066 070 049 001 00
021730 2926N 08346W 6978 02694 9441 +204 +123 242086 096 065 001 00
021800 2924N 08345W 6957 02745 9482 +188 +123 242106 109 079 002 00
021830 2923N 08343W 6980 02738 9500 +195 +122 241109 112 092 005 00
021900 2922N 08342W 6967 02785 9555 +170 +119 233126 127 092 005 00
021930 2921N 08341W 6968 02800 9581 +162 +115 229126 128 086 010 00
022000 2920N 08340W 6966 02817 9598 +160 +109 225122 124 085 005 00
022030 2919N 08339W 6966 02828 9617 +156 +103 223120 121 081 002 00
022100 2918N 08338W 6969 02839 9633 +155 +099 221115 120 075 002 00
022130 2917N 08337W 6970 02854 9655 +151 +095 221111 114 073 000 00
022200 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9687 +139 +091 219105 109 069 000 00
022230 2916N 08335W 6966 02875 9705 +135 +088 220105 106 066 001 00
022300 2913N 08333W 6961 02908 9717 +137 +085 222103 105 065 002 00
022330 2912N 08332W 6978 02901 9728 +140 +082 222101 102 064 001 00

It almost feels like the last few recon passes from both AF and NOAA just before landfall were purposely avoiding the E eyewall, even though that was where the strongest winds were measured in the afternoon. Was it as a safety precaution or for some other reasons?

Either way, unfortunately I think we've missed the chance to measure the strongest FL winds from Helene. Hopefully NHC will account for undersampling in post-season analysis using other evidence such as radar velocities (which they did for Zeta).

I do wonder about this, it was after sampling near the eastern eyewall that the NOAA plane spent an hour circling the eye and that makes me wonder whether there was some sort of safety issue with the E eyewall or not. Regardless, like you say this will provide plenty of data for post-season analysis, we'll just have to wait until then.

[otowntiger]

OMG the coast from Tampa all the wat north and northwest seeing record storm surges. This is definitely catastrophic.

Wide ranging effects - in Orlando getting tropical storm force winds for the last 5 hours- gusts into the 60s the last two. But oddly not a drop of rain in that time.

Edit: peak gust so far 67 mph at OIA (MCO). Stronger than predicted here. Nearly 40k without power in metro Orlando.