ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

To my eye, it looks like we have landfall nearly due south and a hair west of Perry.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 937 mb and 130 kt for the landfall intensity. The winds largely based on the radar data which has been quite high and not covered by Recon.

[Tyler Penland]

Rainfall near Asheville NC is going to be catastrophic, they've already had 8in over the past 24hrs and are forecasted to get 12in+ over the next day. All that water running down the mountains is going to exacerbate flash flooding that's already taking place there.

Definitely for all of WNC incl the high country.

Interesting blog from our local WX source Rays Weather indicating Helene will be influenced by Fujiwhara effect. https://raysweather.com/insights/fujiwhara

Hey cool to see you over here.

I'm at a 3 day total of just over 17". It has been raining buckets for the past 24 hours and we're over 10" for the day. Just south of Boone. The Linville and Watauga are raging already.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[Zarniwoop]

Struggling to find a cam that really shoes the eyewall as it comes ashore. Would appreciate it if anyone has one. Ryan hall doesn’t appear to have one.

[sikkar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JJ-3yywtzo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo0NhYV00pk

[tolakram]

[Hurricane2022]

I'm thinking the NHC will go with 125 kt/937 mbar in this next adv.

[gailwarning]

Private jet N610FP decided to be an adventurer and fly right through the eye of Cat 4 Helene just a bit ago. I wonder if this may have caused some of the delay for recon.

Doubtful at 45,000 feet.

Just googled the tail number for the fun of it. It spends a lot of time flying in and out of Orlando Executive Airport. It's registered to an LLC and classified as standard transport, which appears to mean a certification for a commercial license. I don't imagine the FAA would take kindly to this kind of risk with paying passengers on board. The pilot should lose his license for a stunt like this. This strays a bit from hurricane talk specifically, but is a little break from the stress of monitoring and potentially having to cope with this storm.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Struggling to find a cam that really shoes the eyewall as it comes ashore. Would appreciate it if anyone has one. Ryan hall doesn’t appear to have one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo0NhYV ... ReedTimmer

[PavelGaborik10]

Making landfall right now

[Jag95]

Hard to believe Perry still has power. What a grid. I'm moving.

[caneman]

The flooding is devastating in Pinellas. I've never seen anything like it.

[NDG]

Two hurricanes in a row on the gulf coast that the beloved TVCN consensus by the NHC is too far left from actual landfall 24 hours before landfall. A blend between the Euro and GFS would had worked just like during Francine, ICON even did better than the TVCN consensus.

[mpic]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo0NhYV00pk

[FLLurker32]

I’m about 45 miles from the SE eye wall. I can see the steady lightning from the eye wall being amplified by the clouds. Cool effect.

[Travorum]

Idalia's radar on the left and Helene on the right. Helene is hitting pretty much the same spot, but is wider, stronger, and intensifying compared to Idalia. Stay safe in north Florida and Georgia.

[Category5Kaiju]

Unless we get a special advisory, I believe we will have landfall at 140 mph and 939 mbar

[HurricaneBelle]

Struggling to find a cam that really shoes the eyewall as it comes ashore. Would appreciate it if anyone has one. Ryan hall doesn’t appear to have one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo0NhYV ... ReedTimmer

Wondering why Timmer's feed has the San Juan radar in the lower right corner

[TampaCE]

The flooding is devastating in Pinellas. I've never seen anything like it.

I’ve got several feet in my house. A friend sent me a video of the waves crashing through some windows and flooding a house in Venetian Isles earlier.

NE St Pete is flooded badly too.

[snowpocalypse]

Rainfall near Asheville NC is going to be catastrophic, they've already had 8in over the past 24hrs and are forecasted to get 12in+ over the next day. All that water running down the mountains is going to exacerbate flash flooding that's already taking place there.

Definitely for all of WNC incl the high country.

Interesting blog from our local WX source Rays Weather indicating Helene will be influenced by Fujiwhara effect. https://raysweather.com/insights/fujiwhara

Hey cool to see you over here.

I'm at a 3 day total of just over 17". It has been raining buckets for the past 24 hours and we're over 10" for the day. Just south of Boone. The Linville and Watauga are raging already.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

Wow, yeah it doesn't sound good at all - ironically I'm vacationing in FL right now. Not sure what it will look like coming back in a few days. Stay safe up there