ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Two hurricanes in a row on the gulf coast that the beloved TVCN consensus by the NHC is too far left from actual landfall 24 hours before landfall. A blend between the Euro and GFS would had worked just like during Francine, ICON even did better than the TVCN consensus.

https://i.imgur.com/4BlJK11.jpeg

Wxman57 was telling us to follow the Icon. What an incredible forecaster he is!

[IsabelaWeather]

Watching a bunch of chasers out in the open near Perry. Can't help but wonder how many will get hurt with this, Perry is not that far inland.

And it looks like only one of them is wearing a helmet.

Hope they brought a PFD. Hwy 98 only follows the coast, not inland away from the surge.

Perry is 45 feet above sea level, no surge there.

[Powellrm]

Rainfall near Asheville NC is going to be catastrophic, they've already had 8in over the past 24hrs and are forecasted to get 12in+ over the next day. All that water running down the mountains is going to exacerbate flash flooding that's already taking place there.

Definitely for all of WNC incl the high country.

Interesting blog from our local WX source Rays Weather indicating Helene will be influenced by Fujiwhara effect. https://raysweather.com/insights/fujiwhara

Hey cool to see you over here.

I'm at a 3 day total of just over 17". It has been raining buckets for the past 24 hours and we're over 10" for the day. Just south of Boone. The Linville and Watauga are raging already.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

Oh man I bet the Linville is raging. Hope you’re doing alright. I’m an App St alum. Lived in AVL and worked in yancey/Madison counties.

I’m in central NC now. Since last week I’ve been so nervous about getting blast by rain. I’m sorry you guys are getting crushed out there. I worry about landslides big time.

[Beef Stew]

...HURRICANE HELENE VERY CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...ACCOMPANIED BY A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS..

11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 26
Location: 29.9°N 83.9°W
Moving: NNE at 24 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[Bocadude85]

The flooding is devastating in Pinellas. I've never seen anything like it.

Yes record breaking surge, can’t imagine how much worse it is north of you.

[Beef Stew]

Also from the discussion:
"Peak 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft were
136 kt, corresponding to an intensity of about 120 kt, which might
be a bit conservative. Radar and satellite images show numerous
mesocyclones rotating around the eyewall."

[PavelGaborik10]

This is one of the latest declared US landfalling Hurricanes I can re-call.

Well over half of the eye is on land right now

[tolakram]

This is one of the latest declared US landfalling Hurricanes I can re-call.

Well over half of the eye is on land right now

Not quite half way over the coast yet.

[HurricaneBelle]

Really no idea why Englewood to Anclote is still under a hurricane watch with the 11PM advisory with the hurricane making landfall a couple hundred miles north. We're still getting high-end TS gusts but we're not going to endure hurricane conditions.

[Beef Stew]

Valdosta, GA, may end up getting a direct hit from the eye, or at least whats left from it.

[Powellrm]

Per stream I’m watching: JAX NWS power is out. Tallahassee NSW would normally take over, but they’re more likely to lose power. So NOLA NSW will be taking over. Was half paying attention. So not 100% sure.

Also. I wonder what the peak storm surge will be for the landfall/landfall adjustments areas.

[caneman]

Two hurricanes in a row on the gulf coast that the beloved TVCN consensus by the NHC is too far left from actual landfall 24 hours before landfall. A blend between the Euro and GFS would had worked just like during Francine, ICON even did better than the TVCN consensus.

https://i.imgur.com/4BlJK11.jpeg

Agree 110%. So frustrating when NHC moves so slowly on adjustments or not at all.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Valdosta, GA, may end up getting a direct hit from the eye, or at least whats left from it.

It should be still a CAT 3 when it hits Valdosta. There will be plenty of Eyewall well inland.

[PavelGaborik10]

This is one of the latest declared US landfalling Hurricanes I can re-call.

Well over half of the eye is on land right now

Not quite half way over the coast yet.

https://i.imgur.com/21OdZnL.png

Looks well, well over now though I would argue about halfway in the photo above.

[fci]

Watching WTXL Channel 27 Tallahassee on the NewsOn app.
Great way to follow the storm.

[caneman]

The flooding is devastating in Pinellas. I've never seen anything like it.

Yes record breaking surge, can’t imagine how much worse it is north of you.

It will be terrible!!! I have lived here since 1976 and never seen anything like this!

[caneman]

The flooding is devastating in Pinellas. I've never seen anything like it.

I’ve got several feet in my house. A friend sent me a video of the waves crashing through some windows and flooding a house in Venetian Isles earlier.

NE St Pete is flooded badly too.

Flooding along the intercostal is terrible. Places that have never flooded. I'm high and dry but my neighborhood around me is washed over from surge. Unreal!!!!! People always say prepare but until you see something like this 1st hand it's hard to imagine the worst case scenario

[PavelGaborik10]

[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/4gdplDM[/imgur]

[Travorum]

Wow, even over land convection is building up in the SE eyewall near Steinhatchee. Goes to show how much staying power Helene is going to have inland.

[snowpocalypse]

Valdosta, GA, may end up getting a direct hit from the eye, or at least whats left from it.

It should be still a CAT 3 when it hits Valdosta. There will be plenty of Eyewall well inland.

That's wild if it holds up, for a gulf cane.. Michael came through more of rural SW GA.

From a population standpoint, IF Tally ends up coming out relatively OK being west of the track, Helene running up directly through Valdosta, Tifton, Macon, may have the greatest damage.. (and north of course towards ATL)