ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

It's quite impressive (from a meteorological perspective, not impact) how Helene got to what it is at landfall. There are valid arguments to say it "struggled" at all points of its life: genesis being a bit slower than expected, shear in Western Caribbean and naked LLC (with concerns about John's outflow added to the mix), more interaction with Yucatan than initially thought, and of course, several dry air episodes further south in the Gulf. The fact that "won't be a major" comments were prevalent practically every couple hours is quite telling.

In the end, Helene is both the storm that wished it had 12 hours before landfall, and the storm that actually got 12 hours before landfall. Without this afternoon, it would have been another Francine. With more time to intensify at the insane rates in the last 8 hours, it could have been a Rita.

There's a legitimate chance that Helene may end up being emblematic of the 2024 season as a whole: struggled all along, but still bombed out in the end.

[PavelGaborik10]

Even the Mets on Ryan Hall seems confused as to why landfall hasn't been made official yet, pointing out it's clear over half of the eye has crossed over onto land.

[Zarniwoop]

I haven’t seen anyplace getting 100 mph winds, let alone 140.

Anyone else? Or is that just over water and subtract when it hits land? Sorry if that’s a dumb question.

[Jag95]

TBH, that didn't look as bad as I was expecting, at least in Perry which is in the eye. I Think I heard Reed mention it too.

[Buck]

Finally.

...HELENE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
11:20 PM EDT Thu Sep 26
Location: 30.0°N 83.7°W
Moving: NNE at 24 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[Zarniwoop]

TBH, that didn't look as bad as I was expecting, at least in Perry which is in the eye. I Think I heard Reed mention it too.

Same, was wondering if it was the same hurricane.

[Anti-freeze]

Per stream I’m watching: JAX NWS power is out.

How does a coastal NWS office in hurricane alley not have an adequate backup power system?

[caneman]

I haven’t seen anyplace getting 100 mph winds, let alone 140.

Anyone else? Or is that just over water and subtract when it hits land? Sorry if that’s a dumb question.

Wind won't be the headline. The surge has been shocking!!

[Longhornmaniac8]

Private jet N610FP decided to be an adventurer and fly right through the eye of Cat 4 Helene just a bit ago. I wonder if this may have caused some of the delay for recon.

Doubtful at 45,000 feet.

Just googled the tail number for the fun of it. It spends a lot of time flying in and out of Orlando Executive Airport. It's registered to an LLC and classified as standard transport, which appears to mean a certification for a commercial license. I don't imagine the FAA would take kindly to this kind of risk with paying passengers on board. The pilot should lose his license for a stunt like this. This strays a bit from hurricane talk specifically, but is a little break from the stress of monitoring and potentially having to cope with this storm.

Luckily for you, I'm an airline pilot and can expand a bit on what you're reading and provide some context.

A transport category aircraft is any aircraft over 12,500 lbs. It has no connotation for private, commercial, or anything else.

The tops of most of the clouds associated with Helene were no higher than about 30-35K. Some isolated tops to the low 40s, but they're easily avoided.

It's easy to overlay a flight track onto a radar and assume they're penetrating everything you're seeing, but that's now how it happens. The pilot in command of that airplane is a professional and is due the respect afforded by their position. Nobody is going to fly through the storms in a hurricane (except the Hurricane Hunters' pilots and I'm not sure how those things overcome the weight of their huge cojones). There is nothing inherently dangerous about overflying a hurricane. The air was quite possibly smooth as glass. The biggest concern would be if you had a rapid/explosive decompression that required an emergency descent to a breathable altitude. Things would get spicy in a hurry there.

TL;DR: Not really dangerous, not necessarily bad decision-making, and none of us had the information the PIC did when they made the decision.

[Beef Stew]

TBH, that didn't look as bad as I was expecting, at least in Perry which is in the eye. I Think I heard Reed mention it too.

To be fair, in livestreams I feel like it rarely does. It's usually the damage assessment footage as well as remote videos from coastal regions (especially of surge) that come out after the storm has passed that the true gravity of the impact is reflected. At least that's how I usually feel.

[curtadams]

I haven’t seen anyplace getting 100 mph winds, let alone 140.

Anyone else? Or is that just over water and subtract when it hits land? Sorry if that’s a dumb question.

Land interaction takes a lot of speed off a hurricane's wind. Also, even a little bit inland (like in Perry) takes even more off.

[loon]

Helene is still continues to be east of the offical track.. will need to turn due north very soon or it could even escape the cone. what a storm.. mother nature does it again.

[PavelGaborik10]

Reed seems extremely disappointed, saying they likely only received a couple of gusts pushing 100 MPH in Perry.

[Zarniwoop]

I feel terrible for that house that they were showing on the weather channel. Just gone…

[Jag95]

Doubtful at 45,000 feet.

Just googled the tail number for the fun of it. It spends a lot of time flying in and out of Orlando Executive Airport. It's registered to an LLC and classified as standard transport, which appears to mean a certification for a commercial license. I don't imagine the FAA would take kindly to this kind of risk with paying passengers on board. The pilot should lose his license for a stunt like this. This strays a bit from hurricane talk specifically, but is a little break from the stress of monitoring and potentially having to cope with this storm.

Luckily for you, I'm an airline pilot and can expand a bit on what you're reading and provide some context.

A transport category aircraft is any aircraft over 12,500 lbs. It has no connotation for private, commercial, or anything else.

The tops of most of the clouds associated with Helene were no higher than about 30-35K. Some isolated tops to the low 40s, but they're easily avoided.

It's easy to overlay a flight track onto a radar and assume they're penetrating everything you're seeing, but that's now how it happens. The pilot in command of that airplane is a professional and is due the respect afforded by their position. Nobody is going to fly through the storms in a hurricane (except the Hurricane Hunters' pilots and I'm not sure how those things overcome the weight of their huge cojones). There is nothing inherently dangerous about overflying a hurricane. The air was quite possibly smooth as glass. The biggest concern would be if you had a rapid/explosive decompression that required an emergency descent to a breathable altitude. Things would get spicy in a hurry there.

TL;DR: Not really dangerous, not necessarily bad decision-making, and none of us had the information the PIC did when they made the decision.

If that's the same tail number I looked up a while ago, it was a Lear jet registered to what looks like a sports company.

[JtSmarts]

That eyewall is making a beeline towards Valdosta.

[JaxGator]

Valdosta, GA, may end up getting a direct hit from the eye, or at least whats left from it.

It should be still a CAT 3 when it hits Valdosta. There will be plenty of Eyewall well inland.

No bueno. That eyewall is huge. Power is flickering here. Wished I posted more instead of lurking.

[TallyTracker]

I haven’t seen anyplace getting 100 mph winds, let alone 140.

Anyone else? Or is that just over water and subtract when it hits land? Sorry if that’s a dumb question.

You probably won’t see super high winds due to the sparsely populated area where landfall is occurring. The best chance for 100+ mph wind measurements is actually when it gets into Georgia.

[CrazyC83]

It's quite impressive (from a meteorological perspective, not impact) how Helene got to what it is at landfall. There are valid arguments to say it "struggled" at all points of its life: genesis being a bit slower than expected, shear in Western Caribbean and naked LLC (with concerns about John's outflow added to the mix), more interaction with Yucatan than initially thought, and of course, several dry air episodes further south in the Gulf. The fact that "won't be a major" comments were prevalent practically every couple hours is quite telling.

In the end, Helene is both the storm that wished it had 12 hours before landfall, and the storm that actually got 12 hours before landfall. Without this afternoon, it would have been another Francine. With more time to intensify at the insane rates in the last 8 hours, it could have been a Rita.

There's a legitimate chance that Helene may end up being emblematic of the 2024 season as a whole: struggled all along, but still bombed out in the end.

An argument can be made that, if Helene strengthened earlier, it might not have held up as well, since it would have likely started to go into ERC's and started weakening (but expanding even more). It might have reached cat 5 with about 8-12 more hours over water, but not much more than that as other factors would come in.

[IsabelaWeather]

Doubtful at 45,000 feet.

Just googled the tail number for the fun of it. It spends a lot of time flying in and out of Orlando Executive Airport. It's registered to an LLC and classified as standard transport, which appears to mean a certification for a commercial license. I don't imagine the FAA would take kindly to this kind of risk with paying passengers on board. The pilot should lose his license for a stunt like this. This strays a bit from hurricane talk specifically, but is a little break from the stress of monitoring and potentially having to cope with this storm.

Luckily for you, I'm an airline pilot and can expand a bit on what you're reading and provide some context.

A transport category aircraft is any aircraft over 12,500 lbs. It has no connotation for private, commercial, or anything else.

The tops of most of the clouds associated with Helene were no higher than about 30-35K. Some isolated tops to the low 40s, but they're easily avoided.

It's easy to overlay a flight track onto a radar and assume they're penetrating everything you're seeing, but that's now how it happens. The pilot in command of that airplane is a professional and is due the respect afforded by their position. Nobody is going to fly through the storms in a hurricane (except the Hurricane Hunters' pilots and I'm not sure how those things overcome the weight of their huge cojones). There is nothing inherently dangerous about overflying a hurricane. The air was quite possibly smooth as glass. The biggest concern would be if you had a rapid/explosive decompression that required an emergency descent to a breathable altitude. Things would get spicy in a hurry there.

TL;DR: Not really dangerous, not necessarily bad decision-making, and none of us had the information the PIC did when they made the decision.

It is interesting to see all of these armchair pilots saying this pilot should lose their license, as if they know anything about it. I sure dont and appreciate your input. It was very informative.