ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

On the Atlantic coast, Savannah just gusted to 75 mph.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Helene for the night owls
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnQ2olzqg8o

[redingtonbeach]

Worst flooding in Tampa Bay Area in decades. Countless houses flooded that have never flooded before. Seems surge just peaked as it is slowly dropping at a buoy near me. Can’t help but think we dodged a bullet with the storm track, but this storm will be talked about for a long time for the likely unprecedented damage in modern era.

Homes without stilts on barrier islands are now uninhabitable due to flooding. Gulfport flooded bad- homes on fire left to burn because winds too high for fire department. Entire barrier islands fire and rescue teams left to go inland. Will be hundreds of millions of dollars in damage on these islands alone. Camille last hurricane this bad on the islands.

[Steve]

Per stream I’m watching: JAX NWS power is out.

How does a coastal NWS office in hurricane alley not have an adequate backup power system?

Come on man. That’s weak.

[bob rulz]

I'll be honest, I expected this to be much worse. Now of course I'm basing this on the live footage I've seen on the weather channel thus far. Perry took a decent hit, but where Cantore is in Tallahassee the trees aren't moving more than just a windy winter storm. Just a bit shocked considering this storm was 140 mph. And really haven't seen any footage that made me go "OMG" like I've seen in other storms. Perhaps it's a location thing? I don't know.

did you miss the flooding and storm surge videos? gonna be tremendous damage all along the coast

Yea, I should have been more specific, I'm just speaking of the wind only. The surge seems to have lived up to the hype unfortunately. But I was expecting horrific wind damage based on the landfall intensity. Perhaps the forward speed make it less intense.

The Big Bend area is very sparsely populated. I think given how fast this storm is moving and how powerful it looked (and still looks tbh) the wind damage will be much more widespread across inland areas than normal.

[eastcoastFL]

Did anyone else see that aqua fence they built around Tampa general to keep water out of the hospital? Pretty Amazing and it looks like it worked.

[HDGator]

Why does the NHC cone show a NNW movement while we continue to see a NNE movement from the Globals and the Sat loops?
This is getting comical at this point.
Why are they so insistent on missing the forecast to the west?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Why does the NHC cone show a NNW movement while we continue to see a NNE movement from the Globals and the Sat loops?
This is getting comical at this point.
Why are they so insistent on missing the forecast to the west?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/040144_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

They lowkey do this for almost every major gulf storm in this area, despite almost all going further east than expected.

[jdjaguar]

How does a coastal NWS office in hurricane alley not have an adequate backup power system?

Well the mayors husband is a long time weatherman
But the mayor takes orders from the DNC

U tell me
My owners is also out and JEA system is down

Come on man. That’s weak.

System still down
No wind
No power
No crews dispatched
Lived here for 50 years
This has never happened before
Ever
JEA has always been responsive
In the past

What again is weak?

[Hammy]

Why does the NHC cone show a NNW movement while we continue to see a NNE movement from the Globals and the Sat loops?
This is getting comical at this point.
Why are they so insistent on missing the forecast to the west?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/040144_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

This is the 2am update, in fairness, so the actual cone/track aren't updated, making the forecast appear more NW than it was. Expecting to see this shifted east soon.

I've been stressed to the max (lots of trees around the house) so I've been off the forum but at the moment it seems not too bad near Athens--worst hasn't gotten here yet but looking better for us than it did about 12 hours ago. Meanwhile the mid-level eye remnants seem to be shooting rapidly northeast and quickly decoupling.

[sponger]

So NHC missed by 100 miles! 12 hours out? Contrary to leading model guidance. I am not impressed. The defenders should be ashamed as should the NHC. I do not know what is going on in this organization but it needs to get its act together. We deserve better. As for all of you spouting the usual it was in the cone nonsense, save your breath. This lazy sloppiness is indefensible.

[HDGator]

So NHC missed by 100 miles! 12 hours out? Contrary to leading model guidance. I am not impressed. The defenders should be ashamed as should the NHC. I do not know what is going on in this organization but it needs to get its act together. We deserve better. As for all of you spouting the usual it was in the cone nonsense, save your breath. This lazy sloppiness is indefensible.

It's absolutely ridiculous that they released a forecast track and cone at 11pm with a NNW track when the storm movement on radar and sat was clearly NNE and the globals confirmed this track with their projections.
The NHC needs a real wake up call as to how they affect the lives of real people.

It's almost like they only saw their job as calling the storm to landfall and barely phoned in the forecast following landfall. It was beyond negligent to leave those in eastern GA and SC to think the storm was going well west of them. I have withheld any criticism of them in the past; but this is ridiculous.

[sponger]

i could not believe it when I saw the IR loop through GA. I never thought I would see they day they failed so embarrassingly and obviously.

[Hurrilurker]

It's entering South Carolina, this is crazy. Is it going to end up being a New England threat?

[sponger]

It's entering South Carolina, this is crazy. Is it going to end up being a New England threat?

Absolute insanity.

[opticsguy]

i could not believe it when I saw the IR loop through GA. I never thought I would see they day they failed so embarrassingly and obviously.

The NAM called this 36 hours ago

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024092600/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_36.png

[Hammy]

i could not believe it when I saw the IR loop through GA. I never thought I would see they day they failed so embarrassingly and obviously.

The NAM called this 36 hours ago
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024092600/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_36.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024092600/namconus_ref_frzn_seus_36.png

GFS too, I was paying attention to that one since it continuously took it east. I wonder if they discounted it after the Ian debacle, where that lone model pushed the track average too far west

[Majek]

It's entering South Carolina, this is crazy. Is it going to end up being a New England threat?

?? The center is in Georgia near Macon. Giant storm, certainly bigger than the state. The center is not entering South Carolina but how could the storm not do so? NHC did great!

[sponger]

It's entering South Carolina, this is crazy. Is it going to end up being a New England threat?

?? The center is in Georgia near Macon. Giant storm, certainly bigger than the state. The center is not entering South Carolina but how could the storm not do so? NHC did great!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

[AlabamaDave]

It's entering South Carolina, this is crazy. Is it going to end up being a New England threat?

?? The center is in Georgia near Macon. Giant storm, certainly bigger than the state. The center is not entering South Carolina but how could the storm not do so? NHC did great!

I think people are surprised by how far east of Metro Atlanta the storm is tracking. 36 hours ago the forecast track was near the Alabama-Georgia border, and no tracks showed it as far east as it is now. The sixth largest metro area is hunkered down, expecting some dramatic winds, and they may not see nearly as much drama (thank goodness -- other than the rain and any flooding).