Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[Teban54]

18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/2fGw1bP.gif

What's it doing, coming back to give Florida a kiss before heading out?

[Pelicane]

GFS has a vorticity signature for this in four days.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like both GFS and CMC like the idea of this bombing out in the Gulf while stalling and then being slingshotted to the north/northeast. Unlike Helene, it looks like it may be more of a slow-mover.

[Travorum]

18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/2fGw1bP.gif

What's it doing, coming back to give Florida a kiss before heading out?

https://i.postimg.cc/rFsCHKhF/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh180-324.gif

Its giving Jeanne 2004 with the circle back to the FL east coast

[Teban54]

Looks like both GFS and CMC like the idea of this bombing out in the Gulf while stalling and then being slingshotted to the north/northeast. Unlike Helene, it looks like it may be more of a slow-mover.

To be fair, Helene was initially also expected to be a slow-mover by GFS (and to a limited extent, Euro and ICON). There were many runs where, instead of being picked up by the trough that's actually picking it up in real life now, it missed the trough and stalled in the BoC for days waiting for the next one in an Opal-like situation. This sound exactly like what GFS is doing here.

This is to say, upper-level conditions can flip-flop in later runs, and I suspect they will. They'll have significant downstream impacts for this system.

[LAF92]

Looks like both GFS and CMC like the idea of this bombing out in the Gulf while stalling and then being slingshotted to the north/northeast. Unlike Helene, it looks like it may be more of a slow-mover.

I know it’s 250 hours out but the 00z gfs is showing a stall along the Louisiana coast and back into the gulf heading southeast. Crazy run to say the least

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has 957mb near New Orleans

[caneseddy]

Canadian has it landfalling in the Panhandle, but weak
Icon has nothing

[ConvergenceZone]

Canadian has it landfalling in the Panhandle, but weak
Icon has nothing

yep models are doing the typical flip flopping, which is very normal this far out. Expected that.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter, while the system moves
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS pushes this west into Mexico.

[cycloneye]

06Z GFS pushes this west into Mexico.

https://i.imgur.com/674j8Gf.png

A weaker run than 00z.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Pipelines182]

Hey, someone unplug the models and plug them back in, they're stuck on repeat, but seriously, can we not? I'm doubtful this potential storm would ground out in Mexico in October, but you never know. At least Helene did use up some energy in the western Caribbean, SSTs have dropped there (still plenty high), but the storm didn't do much in the GoM, just moving too fast at that point.

So let's see, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida have all gotten hurricanes this year. I guess next up in the GoM is Alabama/Mississippi, line up and get your licks as my granddad used to say.

[chris_fit]

Hey, someone unplug the models and plug them back in, they're stuck on repeat, but seriously, can we not? I'm doubtful this potential storm would ground out in Mexico in October, but you never know. At least Helene did use up some energy in the western Caribbean, SSTs have dropped there (still plenty high), but the storm didn't do much in the GoM, just moving too fast at that point.

So let's see, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida have all gotten hurricanes this year. I guess next up in the GoM is Alabama/Mississippi, line up and get your licks as my granddad used to say.

06Z GFS seems to have backed down a bit - let's see if it continues. Reflections and/or storms are still there on the Big 3 - and the EURO AI. Would love to see the Icon but it does not go out that far. Have to wait another 2 days or so to see if it starts showing as the time comes in.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Starting to see a consensus that there will be something. No consensus on what that something is though.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/2fGw1bP.gif

Oh man thats a tiny little storm

[jlauderdal]

18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/2fGw1bP.gif

Oh man thats a tiny little storm

Famous last words, lol. Let's see what happens, but small storms ramp up and ramp down quickly and are prone to shear, so we will see. Im in a hurricane contest and picked Milton as the strongest so I need a few more to be in the conversaion, nobody took beryl or helene

[cycloneye]

12z ICON develops weak storm in BOC from this.

[Travorum]

12z GFS also weak with a 998mb tropical storm into Morgan City, LA.