ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3761 Postby mpic » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:07 am

tolakram wrote:Leave out the buildings and back off the coast and these storms are less worse, though it does seem to depend on exactly how the storm is behaving at landfall (strengthening, weakening). If nothing else this is a good visual argument for not building near the coast, the winds usually (not always) drop off dramatically. Water is more dangerous than the winds, again usually. Homestead in Florida is a good example of wind damage but is also a good example of bad or unenforced building codes. Remember that one house in Mexico Beach that was still standing after Michael? Had every house been built to those standards I think we would have had similar observations.

I'm waiting to see damage near the shore.

Same thing on Bolivar Peninsula when Ike hit and the one lone "yellow house" left standing. Local news used that when explaining what Helene would do to the coastal cities last night.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3762 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:11 am

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3763 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:21 am

Any early damage estimates yet? The surge in the Tampa region alone has got to a disaster insurance-wise. I'd be surprised if totals are less than $10 billion.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3764 Postby Pipelines182 » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:22 am

tolakram wrote:
Pipelines182 wrote:
MGC wrote:I watched Reed Timmer's feed last night on YouTube. IMO the eastern eyewall didn't impress me. There were several young men frolicking about like they were drunk on spring break enjoying the wind. None of them looked to have any trouble staying on their feet. Didn't see many trees blown over while Reed was driving around. Perhaps the two previous hurricanes took them all out. I've had the misfortune of being in Betsy in 1965, The building I was staying in, on Royal Street in the French Quarter was shaking and pieces of the the plaster were falling off the walls and ceiling when the eyewall came through. I'm going to drive through the area in a few weeks to see the damage......MGC


Yeah, I can't say I've seen any footage that shows MH winds. I think part of that is because Helene hit a very empty part of the coastline, the strongest winds occur right at the coast and there just wasn't anyone there to record it. Even just a few miles in the wind speeds drop dramatically. Even then, you almost never see a hurricane's "official" wind speed anywhere on the ground, those are strictly over ocean speeds.


Leave out the buildings and back off the coast and these storms are less worse, though it does seem to depend on exactly how the storm is behaving at landfall (strengthening, weakening). If nothing else this is a good visual argument for not building near the coast, the winds usually (not always) drop off dramatically. Water is more dangerous than the winds, again usually. Homestead in Florida is a good example of wind damage but is also a good example of bad or unenforced building codes. Remember that one house in Mexico Beach that was still standing after Michael? Had every house been built to those standards I think we would have had similar observations.

I'm waiting to see damage near the shore.


Building codes make a massive difference for sure. You can build stick built homes that can withstand cat 5 winds and 20 feet of surge if designed properly. Almost all those homes in Mexico Beach were I believe built in the 50s-80s? They're toothpicks compared to houses built now to Miami-Dade codes. I think it's time the rest of Florida adopt the same code, and the other coastal communities in the GoM. The last few years have made it very clear that the entire Gulf Coast is now just as susceptible to C4/5 hurricanes as southern Florida.

Oh yeah, AND STOP BUILDING ON BARRIER ISLANDS! full stop.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3765 Postby Pipelines182 » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:24 am

Kazmit wrote:Any early damage estimates yet? The surge in the Tampa region alone has got to a disaster insurance-wise. I'd be surprised if totals are less than $10 billion.

It may be awhile before we see the full scope of damage. My friend's mom just had a large tree drop on her house a couple hours ago in NC. The majority of the damage won't even be in Florida.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3766 Postby Pasmorade » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:26 am

Kazmit wrote:Any early damage estimates yet? The surge in the Tampa region alone has got to a disaster insurance-wise. I'd be surprised if totals are less than $10 billion.

Shockingly, this article claims that insured losses could reach US$3–6 billion. :eek: I assume that the losses will exponentially increase once the impacts in Georgia are properly understood.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3767 Postby Jr0d » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:34 am

Looking at the tide gauges in Tampa, Old Port and East Bay had the highest I saw with both over 7' above the predicted tide, I think we can say some areas in Tampa Bay saw 8' of surge.

East Bay high water mark was 9.88' with a predicted tide of 2.09'...the relatively high tide at peak surge did add to the disaster.

Cedar Key saw a high water mark of 13.1' with a predicted tide of 2.77', a measured surge over 10'.

Nowhere near the eyewall had tide gauges. I will not be surprised there is evidence of 20'+ surge in some of the east parts of Appalachee Bay.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3768 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:34 am

Pasmorade wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Any early damage estimates yet? The surge in the Tampa region alone has got to a disaster insurance-wise. I'd be surprised if totals are less than $10 billion.

Shockingly, this article claims that insured losses could reach US$3–6 billion. :eek: I assume that the losses will exponentially increase once the impacts in Georgia are properly understood.

I read that and thought no way. That's Idalia-range.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3769 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:43 am

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3770 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:51 am

The storm surge was astronomical and historic.

 https://x.com/BhatiaKieran/status/1839664544555155773


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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3771 Postby NC George » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:51 am

Jr0d wrote:Looking at the tide gauges in Tampa, Old Port and East Bay had the highest I saw with both over 7' above the predicted tide, I think we can say some areas in Tampa Bay saw 8' of surge.

East Bay high water mark was 9.88' with a predicted tide of 2.09'...the relatively high tide at peak surge did add to the disaster.


Last night I saw a shot of that surge barrier at the hospital in Tampa - the water level looked about even with the worker's head who was inside the barrier, so it had to be ~6 feet deep there.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3772 Postby rockice » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:52 am

I see a lot of people talking up online Twitter and stuff talking about storms in our producing like they used to if you say you got a category 4 but the structure is not as bad they only produce them like a category 1 or 2 has anyone noticed that or anyone knowledge of that maybe the reason why I just cuz I'm like I'm scratching my head I'm like you know that kind of makes sense?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3773 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:52 am

Cedar Key drone footage



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=fDVfWlMjUcE
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3774 Postby Pasmorade » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:57 am

rockice wrote:I see a lot of people talking up online Twitter and stuff talking about storms in our producing like they used to if you say you got a category 4 but the structure is not as bad they only produce them like a category 1 or 2 has anyone noticed that or anyone knowledge of that maybe the reason why I just cuz I'm like I'm scratching my head I'm like you know that kind of makes sense?

Basically, a lot of Florida homes were built in the 1960s and 1970s, without really caring about hurricane impacts. After Andrew in 1992, beginning in Miami, home regulations would be strengthened so that they could handle Cat 5 impacts.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3775 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:59 am

Kazmit wrote:Any early damage estimates yet? The surge in the Tampa region alone has got to a disaster insurance-wise. I'd be surprised if totals are less than $10 billion.


All the damage around Tampa Bay is flooding and the province of flood insurance, so the homeowner's insurance market won't be affected by that.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3776 Postby SecondBreakfast » Fri Sep 27, 2024 11:10 am

Putting on my Public Health hat on here Re: Track differences for a minute…

What is studied in the post-analysis regarding the outcomes of track discrepancies? Yes, a 150mile divergence is pretty wild but the entire SE corner was under a TS/H warning. I understand the need to improve modeling but in terms of public messaging— I think NHC did a pretty good job. They expanded warnings northward into GA as the track wobbled. The surge predictions seemed to have verified. SPC was there with excessive rainfall outlooks for the inland effects. The track was off but what is the effect?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3777 Postby flair » Fri Sep 27, 2024 11:34 am

Kazmit wrote:Any early damage estimates yet? The surge in the Tampa region alone has got to a disaster insurance-wise. I'd be surprised if totals are less than $10 billion.

I think the totals will be in the billions in North Carolina alone.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3778 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Sep 27, 2024 11:37 am

Rutherford County, NC Emergency Management
1h ·
RESIDENTS BELOW THE LAKE LURE DAM NEED TO EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!!
DAM FAILURE IMMINIENT!! EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!!
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3779 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 27, 2024 11:51 am

Very sad news: At least 20 have died. My condolences to the families.

 https://x.com/weatherchannel/status/1839708813538050184


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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3780 Postby Pipelines182 » Fri Sep 27, 2024 11:53 am

Tireman4 wrote:Rutherford County, NC Emergency Management
1h ·
RESIDENTS BELOW THE LAKE LURE DAM NEED TO EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!!
DAM FAILURE IMMINIENT!! EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!!


wow that's a decent sized lake too, hopefully it finds a way to hold on.
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