ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FireRat]

Crazy day in NC with the floods in the Appalachians and the strong tornado that hit Rocky Mount today!

Also, wow what a nasty flood disaster is unfolding in the Appalachians of NC, TN and surrounding areas

[caneman]

Probably not many, or any at all honestly. This part of Florida has a very low population density. I would wager a guess that most of the deaths from this storm is going to be attributed to trees and freshwater flooding.

Pinellas county so far has 2 storm surge deaths. The other 3 are yet to be determine. Death toll could grow

Really unfortunate, they had days of warning too.

The problem is no one alive here has ever even seen that type of storm surge. Any storm surge warning previously were never that high and never ever went close to max high predicted. Even me as a tracker of 25 years am left stunned at the surge we got. Going forward, the experience will create wisdom

[KyleEverett]

 https://x.com/tennesseeema/status/1839743521361932599




Another dam failure, this is near the TN/NC border.

[FireRat]

Pinellas county so far has 2 storm surge deaths. The other 3 are yet to be determine. Death toll could grow

Really unfortunate, they had days of warning too.

The problem is no one alive here has ever even seen that type of storm surge. Any storm surge warning previously were never that high and never ever went close to max high predicted. Even me as a tracker of 25 years am left stunned at the surge we got. Going forward, the experience will create wisdom

Kind of like what happened with Ian.
This will add to the wisdom indeed.

[fci]

Probably not many, or any at all honestly. This part of Florida has a very low population density. I would wager a guess that most of the deaths from this storm is going to be attributed to trees and freshwater flooding.

Pinellas county so far has 2 storm surge deaths. The other 3 are yet to be determine. Death toll could grow

Really unfortunate, they had days of warning too.

You are correct, they had days of warning and the NHC emphasizes over and over that more deaths occur due to water and surge than from the winds.
I don't know how they can make it any clearer than they already do every time.

[Pasmorade]

40+ deaths...

[lovingseason2013]

Pinellas county so far has 2 storm surge deaths. The other 3 are yet to be determine. Death toll could grow

Really unfortunate, they had days of warning too.

The problem is no one alive here has ever even seen that type of storm surge. Any storm surge warning previously were never that high and never ever went close to max high predicted. Even me as a tracker of 25 years am left stunned at the surge we got. Going forward, the experience will create wisdom

I had family that were on vacation at Siesta Key and stayed through the hurricane!! They had to stay on the 2nd floor as the first floor was flooded up to the roof. Both rental cars were in the garage and totalled. Why why WHY!?!? Would they have stayed. I had no idea they were there until it was too late. Had that storm shifted more to te east, they possibly would not be alive. How did the AirBnB owners not tell them to leave? Were they that greedy not to want to miss out on the rental? Or were they that stupid too? I am so perplexed at the lack of logically thinking anymore. I have a photo they texted me mid-day yesterday, thinking it was cool how flooded everything was and that they couldn't leave. It was like a novelty to them... of course until midnight when the fridge and couches were floating, and realized they may not make it, and now they are stranded for who knows how long since they have no rental car, and I doubt Uber is gonna come get them. I cant get myself to even get back to them as I am furious at them for risking their families lives!!!

[shah83]

One thing I'm wondering about is that it seems Helene is pretty unprecedented here. The mountain flooding disasters in the general area has precedent with the Frances-Ivan catastrophe and I'm not really hearing comparisons with those storms.

[tolakram]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=PgRMkGCogtg

[Pipelines182]

One thing I'm wondering about is that it seems Helene is pretty unprecedented here. The mountain flooding disasters in the general area has precedent with the Frances-Ivan catastrophe and I'm not really hearing comparisons with those storms.

Some of the local NWS offices were calling this event in the southern Appalachians "the most significant weather event in the modern era to ever affect the area" so do with that what you will.

[SconnieCane]

Mind you, Helene took about the least impactful path it could possibly have taken at landfall, with the eyewall neatly threading the needle between Tallahassee and Cedar Key (Based on what I saw on radar last night, even Steinhatchee was at most briefly clipped by the right edge), yet this is still what it did.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/WXFatalities/status/1839759359229997098

[ColdMiser123]

One thing I'm wondering about is that it seems Helene is pretty unprecedented here. The mountain flooding disasters in the general area has precedent with the Frances-Ivan catastrophe and I'm not really hearing comparisons with those storms.

The quick storm motion, combined with the long-term trend upward in water vapor, has led to the all time highest precipitable water levels on record across west North Carolina.

So there is no true historical precedent in the modern record, which is why many water level records are being broken in rural North Carolina.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1839481066085597630

[SecondBreakfast]

Putting on my Public Health hat on here Re: Track differences for a minute…

What is studied in the post-analysis regarding the outcomes of track discrepancies? Yes, a 150mile divergence is pretty wild but the entire SE corner was under a TS/H warning. I understand the need to improve modeling but in terms of public messaging— I think NHC did a pretty good job. They expanded warnings northward into GA as the track wobbled. The surge predictions seemed to have verified. SPC was there with excessive rainfall outlooks for the inland effects. The track was off but what is the effect?

Disagree to an extent.. They took too long on shifting the track more to the right. The typically are slow to adjust. I know labdfall was in the right hand part of cone but everyone kept saying Tallahasse when you could clearly see it was more like Perry. In the end it likely didn't matter but still. Further, storm surge values should have been higher than 5 to 8 feet as it nearly maxed that out. Up to 10 foot would have been better. Folks in flood zone B nearly got water in their homes. Having said all that, storm surge here has never been at the very high end here. People don't know what they don't know unless having experienced it before. I can tell you this, it was a massive wake up call for Tampa Bay!!!!

Wow I didn’t realize the surge exceeded expectations so much. The death toll so far is actually really shocking.

[Teban54]

Mind you, Helene took about the least impactful path it could possibly have taken at landfall, with the eyewall neatly threading the needle between Tallahassee and Cedar Key (Based on what I saw on radar last night, even Steinhatchee was at most briefly clipped by the right edge), yet this is still what it did.

This is precisely why the focus on peak wind speed, both in general and specifically for Helene before its RI, was overblown. As were the comments about the eyewall being "underwhelming" in Perry.

[galaxy401]

Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, and Tennessee are all covered by Helene’s rain shield.

https://i.imgur.com/gnNRl2e.jpeg

The crazy part about that image is how completely clear it is in the western half of the country. The large system is soaking the eastern part but everything to the west is not only completely dry but there are absolutely no clouds either.

[weeniepatrol]

Look at the incredible size of what is now extratropical cyclone Helene, relative to Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce:

[Travorum]

Look at the incredible size of what is now extratropical cyclone Helene, relative to Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce:

https://i.imgur.com/dhw7HQx.png

Another perspective on Helene's size looking at wind barbs:

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1839764502553780720

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1839764502553780720

Keaton Beach getting hit by 3 hurricanes in 13 months, two of which are major hurricanes, is just sheer insanity. This kind of stuff can literally mark the end of entire communities and even cities, as happened to Indianola, TX, which went from a major port to a ghost town with no surviving traces today thanks to two MH landfalls in 11 years. (The 1886 Indianola hurricane is still among the top 10 most intense US landfalls by pressure to this day.)