ATL: ISAAC - Extratropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

437
WTNT35 KNHC 272034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...ISAAC IS INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 45.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

[ChrisH-UK]

Isaac now is a well defined Hurricane with an eye.

[CrazyC83]

In the old days, we would probably get data from ships near the core. Luckily with satellites they can avoid it.

All we have is Dvorak so it's a guessing game.

[Sciencerocks]

Probably a cat2! 85 knts

[Beef Stew]

Isaac looks really good- I wouldn't be surprised if the actual intensity was 100+ MPH.

[aspen]

Imagery on Tropical Tidbits hasn’t updated in 5-6 hours, where else has some?

[Teban54]

Imagery on Tropical Tidbits hasn’t updated in 5-6 hours, where else has some?

RAMMB is still being updated. I happened to be looking at Joyce on RAMMB just now, so I'll dump you this link that is probably showing Joyce:

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

[Teban54]

IMO, this is definitely pushing for a Cat 2 if not already there.

[Travorum]

Raw T# is up to 5.2, Isaac is likely at or near Cat 2.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2024 Time : 221020 UTC
Lat : 37:45:35 N Lon : 45:07:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 966.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.2 5.2

[CrazyC83]

With that data, I'd go with 85 kt. A case could be made for 90-95 kt, but the winds may not be penetrating to the sea as efficiently with the colder water temperatures.

[weeniepatrol]

[cycloneye]

AL, 10, 2024092800, , BEST, 0, 379N, 443W, 80, 974, HU

[aspen]

This is never getting operationally assessed as a Cat 2 lol.

Also this latest GOES outage has been going on for 8 hours now, the worst one all year. I dunno why there’s been so many (at least one a day) this year. Isn’t there a replacement GOES satellite going up soon, or was it already launched?

[Hurricane2022]

Likely around 90 - 95 kts but 85 kt is also reasonable to me.

[CrazyC83]

That looks to be T5.5 there. Normally that would be 100 kt, although I'd deduct a bit due to the colder boundary layer. Still, 85-90 kt seems reasonable if assessed at that.

[Travorum]

NHC: Best I can do is 75kt

SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 43.4W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

[Hurricane2022]

[AnnularCane]

Wow, did those reds and yellows really just show up out of nowhere?

[Cyclenall]

Wow, did those reds and yellows really just show up out of nowhere?

No and I'd like to know why Band 7 does that to imagery, its really offbeat and chaotic.

[CrazyC83]

Still, that would be T5.5 with the structure, correct?