ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

It's comparable to Hugo 1989 for wind, or Camille 1969 or Hazel 1954 for flooding.

Agree. Devastating.
The surge in the Tampa Bay area has never been experienced like that in the Tampa Bay area. Maybe no name 1993 or Donna 1960 so many people had no experience. Experience precludes wisdom in most cases. I can tell you first hand that high end surge forecasts here never or rarely previously had verified

Don't think Donna caused a surge problem in Tampa Bay since it made landfall around Naples/Marco Island.

As bad and record setting the surge was in Tampa Bay, had Helene made that unexpected east turn earlier, before landfall the surge would have been much worse. A direct hut in say St Pete/Clearwater with the eyewall pushing water into the bay will bring catastrophic surge to the area.

It is a matter of when that happens to Tampa Bay not if. As grim as this sounds, the Tampa area will likely be better off if that happens in the next 5 years or so while the memory of Helene's flood are still relatively fresh....10 years from now, the majority of people will have forgotten the flooding from Helene OR did not live through it.

The human toll this early is alarming...Helene will be retired as a name.

[Pas_Bon]

Utter calamity in TN/NC.

https://x.com/vanxan_/status/1839787169042289004?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg

Horrific and heartbreaking

[Poonwalker]

Update for me from Seminole. I was fine but everyone I know on the coast lost their homes in Treasure Island, Madeira, Indian Rocks except one who lost their dock and pool area. The surge was historic. I can’t even imagine what a direct hit from a storm like this will cause. Because of my work I know a lot of people on the coast. I don’t think they should live there.

[typhoonty]

Update for me from Seminole. I was fine but everyone I know on the coast lost their homes in Madeira and Indian Rocks except one who lost their dock and pool area. The surge was historic. I can’t even imagine what a direct hit from a storm like this will cause. Because of my work I know a lot of people on the coast. I don’t think they should live there.

I'm so sorry poonwalker. Every storm is different, and when I saw that people were lauding the Tampa shield and dodging a bullet before the storm had passed, I was so upset.

Water is so much more destructive than wind, I would argue that the Pinellas coast had more IMPACTS from the storm than Tallahassee or even Perry. At the end of the day, people want to know what will happen to their property and what they need to do to prepare.

[psyclone]

The fact that this surge was historic for Tampa Bay just tells me Tampa Bay hasn't been hit. Those fresh records are low hanging fruit for a meaty cat 3 landfall. They'd be doubled...perhaps worse.

[typhoonty]

Agree. Devastating.
The surge in the Tampa Bay area has never been experienced like that in the Tampa Bay area. Maybe no name 1993 or Donna 1960 so many people had no experience. Experience precludes wisdom in most cases. I can tell you first hand that high end surge forecasts here never or rarely previously had verified

Don't think Donna caused a surge problem in Tampa Bay since it made landfall around Naples/Marco Island.

As bad and record setting the surge was in Tampa Bay, had Helene made that unexpected east turn earlier, before landfall the surge would have been much worse. A direct hut in say St Pete/Clearwater with the eyewall pushing water into the bay will bring catastrophic surge to the area.

It is a matter of when that happens to Tampa Bay not if. As grim as this sounds, the Tampa area will likely be better off if that happens in the next 5 years or so while the memory of Helene's flood are still relatively fresh....10 years from now, the majority of people will have forgotten the flooding from Helene OR did not live through it.

The human toll this early is alarming...Helene will be retired as a name.

Agree. I'm pretty sure Fort Myers will be elite for hurricane prep for a generation now after Ian/Debby/Idalia/Helene all caused major flooding on Fort Myers Beach.

On a local side note, my parents have a cottage at MM 21.5 and said this was the longest duration of TS force wind gusts they've endured by far.

[CrazyC83]

What else is amazing is that, from tropical cyclogenesis to loss of characteristics was barely 3 1/2 days. Yet in that time it charged up to a category 4 and did historic damage.

[Steve]

What else is amazing is that, from tropical cyclogenesis to loss of characteristics was barely 3 1/2 days. Yet in that time it charged up to a category 4 and did historic damage.

Also the setup which doesn’t really mimic many similar situations I know of. Sure you have early season systems that will come in and sit around because of the lack of steering. But this was going to be different. Probably other people were talking about it when I wasn’t paying much attention. But I was curious from last Thursday when I started looking at 500mb and saw that cut off low prognosticated. As you know troughs can have a variety of influences from western boundaries to shear/ventilation, to drawing up systems and pumping rainfall where they intersect or merge. People close to the path got more than a lot of them or us expected too even if inland has been an occasional topic among different people over the last week.

[psyclone]

What else is amazing is that, from tropical cyclogenesis to loss of characteristics was barely 3 1/2 days. Yet in that time it charged up to a category 4 and did historic damage.

This is a great point and illustrates the gulf is a powder keg at peak season. I'd suggest any spot on the US gulf coast is vulnerable to an extreme hurricane because the sea is insanely warm. Let's dispatch of this antiquated idea that certain stretches are exempt because of climo. Our record is simply not long enough. Every spot has a return frequency given a sufficient timeline (which we lack hence Tampa Bay's absurdly low record surge value). To the extent hurricane seasons seem to be increasingly back loaded...if anything hurricane strike frequency in the central and eastern gulf may increase over time. I'm definitely staying on high ground

[CrazyC83]

What else is amazing is that, from tropical cyclogenesis to loss of characteristics was barely 3 1/2 days. Yet in that time it charged up to a category 4 and did historic damage.

This is a great point and illustrates the gulf is a powder keg at peak season. I'd suggest any spot on the US gulf coast is vulnerable to an extreme hurricane because the sea is insanely warm. Let's dispatch of this antiquated idea that certain stretches are exempt because of climo. Our record is simply not long enough. Every spot has a return frequency given a sufficient timeline (which we lack hence Tampa Bay's absurdly low record surge value). To the extent hurricane seasons seem to be increasingly back loaded...if anything hurricane strike frequency in the central and eastern gulf may increase over time. I'm definitely staying on high ground

One thing in this stretch of intense Gulf activity: there hasn't been a major hurricane hit on the Atlantic Ocean side since Jeanne in 2004, and none north of Florida since Fran in 1996. Makes me wonder if we're due for a big hit on the east coast of Florida, or in the Carolina coast?

[psyclone]

I think so. They seem to come in streaks. The Carolinas were ganged up on in the 90's

[Teban54]

What else is amazing is that, from tropical cyclogenesis to loss of characteristics was barely 3 1/2 days. Yet in that time it charged up to a category 4 and did historic damage.

Because of how short-lived Helene was, it only managed to generate 7.1 ACE units according to CSU, and the season is still below the 1991-2020 average ACE to date. Yet another example of shortcomings of this metric.

(For context, Isaac already generated almost half as much ACE as Helene did.)

[typhoonty]

What else is amazing is that, from tropical cyclogenesis to loss of characteristics was barely 3 1/2 days. Yet in that time it charged up to a category 4 and did historic damage.

I think most of the highest end storms to ever hit the US (over half) have had genesis within 3-4 days of US landfall. Labor Day/Ian/Michael/Charley/Harvey come to mind.

I have a theory that it is much harder to keep a core than it is to generate one, and the ability to hit land without it being significantly disrupted after initial peak intensity allows a storm to have the highest ceiling possible.

[Teban54]

What else is amazing is that, from tropical cyclogenesis to loss of characteristics was barely 3 1/2 days. Yet in that time it charged up to a category 4 and did historic damage.

I think most of the highest end storms to ever hit the US (over half) have had genesis within 3-4 days of US landfall. Labor Day/Ian/Michael/Charley/Harvey come to mind.

I have a theory that it is much harder to keep a core than it is to generate one, and the ability to hit land without it being significantly disrupted after initial peak intensity allows a storm to have the highest ceiling possible.

In fact, EVERY single Cat 5 CONUS landfalling storm were not yet hurricanes 3 days before:
 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1528103294756966400

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/1839508743593001219

[WaveBreaking]

Helene's final approach to Florida

[psyclone]

The low ace total/fast developer is most likely in parts of the basin where land impact is likely

[Pas_Bon]

Yeah...life on the Gulf Coast is going to be rough from now on.
My parents are planning to move out of Houston soon. They're fed up with the weather disaster or two we've had every year since 2015.
I'm going to miss having a home to go back to in Houston, but...it really feels like the weather there is just going to get worse and worse.

That whole stretch of coast is pretty fascinating, with essentially zero beach and communities extending right up to the water with no beach, no slope down to the Gulf. This is a Google Street View from Cedar Key. A street right at the water with no slope down. How are these places not flooded really frequently? https://www.google.com/maps/@29.13433,- ... FQAw%3D%3D

I’d suggest that when most of these communities (Cedar Key and similar) were initially developed, it was during a time when major hurricanes were very infrequent, compared to now.
You had a direct strike maybe once every couple decades. People accepted that infrequency and accepted that risk financially.
Compare that to NINE major hurricane landfalls across the Gulf Coast in the past 7 years, and you have a situation that is mostly untenable. I know for a fact that my hometown in Vermilion Parish, LA has lost thousands in population - in large part due to the inability for people to pay for proper insurance (and inability to even get insurance).
Neighboring Cameron Parish has almost become a ghost Parish for much the same reasons.

I’m beginning to get that same thought. I grew up in coastal Louisiana and now live in Galveston County, TX and as soon as my kids are fully grown, I’m increasingly considering moving somewhere that has seasons. I’ve lived on the Gulf Coast my entire life and I honestly never thought I’d say this, but it’s getting old.

[kassi]

Yeah...life on the Gulf Coast is going to be rough from now on.
My parents are planning to move out of Houston soon. They're fed up with the weather disaster or two we've had every year since 2015.
I'm going to miss having a home to go back to in Houston, but...it really feels like the weather there is just going to get worse and worse.

I’d suggest that when most of these communities (Cedar Key and similar) were initially developed, it was during a time when major hurricanes were very infrequent, compared to now.
You had a direct strike maybe once every couple decades. People accepted that infrequency and accepted that risk financially.
Compare that to NINE major hurricane landfalls across the Gulf Coast in the past 7 years, and you have a situation that is mostly untenable. I know for a fact that my hometown in Vermilion Parish, LA has lost thousands in population - in large part due to the inability for people to pay for proper insurance (and inability to even get insurance).
Neighboring Cameron Parish has almost become a ghost Parish for much the same reasons.

I’m beginning to get that same thought. I grew up in coastal Louisiana and now live in Galveston County, TX and as soon as my kids are fully grown, I’m increasingly considering moving somewhere that has seasons. I’ve lived on the Gulf Coast my entire life and I honestly never thought I’d say this, but it’s getting old.

Texas Gulf Coast my whole life. What are seasons?

[bob rulz]

The damage pictures from the Big Bend/Pinellas County area and southern Appalachians are heartbreaking. I have a couple of friends in South Carolina (on the other side of the river from Augusta) and another in Knoxville, TN. The friends in South Carolina lost a gazebo in their backyard, don't have power, and just in general have a big mess but are otherwise okay. A car took out a power pole nearby (probably some idiot driving in the height of the storm). My friend in Knoxville is away from the worst of it, but has kept me updated on some of the damage not too far to the east of him. Grateful that they're okay but devastated at the damage I'm seeing.