ATL: JOYCE - Advisories

[kevin]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 42.9W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Tropical Storm Joyce has formed over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean, becoming the tenth named storm in the basin this season.
First-light visible satellite imagery showed low-level clouds
moving westward, indicating the surface circulation has closed.
Deep, organized convection has been persistent for the past day or
so with decent outflow noted in the northern semicircle of the
circulation. This initial intensity is set to 35 kt, representing
the subjective satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

Joyce has a short window for potential intensification. For the
next day or so, deep-layer vertical wind shear should be
moderate-to-low with warm sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track. Mid-level humidities around Joyce are sufficient,
but expected to dry in the coming days. Global models predict the
vertical wind shear should increase and the storm will likely
experience dry air intrusions. The official forecast shows Joyce
strengthening to a peak of 50 kt on Saturday, followed by gradual
weakening through next week. Deep convection should be stripped
away by Tuesday and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low
at that point before opening into a trough. However, the GFS
suggests this could happen even sooner.

The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A weak mid-level ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is expected to steer Joyce
generally northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a
gradual turn to the north-northwest and north with a slowing forward
speed. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement about this
evolution and the NHC track forecast follows the various simple and
corrected consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 20.7N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 21.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 23.9N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

kevin, to let you know that your post of the advisory at the main ex 98L thread was moved to then create the advisories thread.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Deep convection has increased and become more concentrated near the
center of Joyce this afternoon. A cold dense overcast has developed
and expanded over the low-level center of the tropical cyclone. As a
result, the latest satellite intensity estimates have risen, and the
initial intensity is brought up to 45 kt. This is consistent with a
T3.0/45-kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, as well as a blend of
recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates that range from 36-52 kt.

Additional near-term strengthening is possible while Joyce remains
in an environment of strong upper-level divergence and moderate
shear over warm SSTs. However, the storm is forecast to encounter
increasing shear and a progressively drier mid-level environment
during the next couple of days, which should induce a weakening
trend later this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC
intensity forecast peaks at 55 kt in 12 h, with gradual weakening
shown thereafter based on the less favorable environmental
conditions that are anticipated. Simulated satellite imagery from
the latest ECMWF run shows Joyce maintaining organized convection
through Monday, but the GFS suggests it could degenerate to a
remnant low even sooner. This forecast shows Joyce degenerating into
a post-tropical remnant low in 72 h and dissipating by day 5, but
future timing changes may be necessary.

The storm continues to move northwestward (305/11 kt) around the
southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. A slight turn toward the west-northwest is expected during
the next day or two, along with a slower forward speed as the
steering currents weaken. There is more spread in the track guidance
thereafter, with some model disagreement about whether and how
quickly the storm turns northward ahead of an upper trough over the
central Atlantic. For now, the NHC track forecast is shifted
slightly to the left and is a bit slower between 48-72 h, following
the latest HCCA and and TVCA trends.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 18.6N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 19.1N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 19.5N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 20.1N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 21.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 22.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Recent microwave imagery, including an 0022 UTC ASCAT-B pass,
indicates that Joyce's circulation is tilted with height, with a
mid-level center feature displaced about 40 nm north of the
low-level center. The scatterometer data also indicated that Joyce
still has maximum winds of 45 kt, which is also supported by the
latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes.

Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest (300/10 kt) to the south
of a narrow subtropical ridge. Deep-layer troughing is forecast to
amplify over the central Atlantic during the next few days, eroding
the ridge and causing Joyce to gradually turn toward the northwest
and north and slow down to a crawl by this time on Monday. Because
several of the regional hurricane models appear to keep Joyce too
strong in the coming days (more on that below) and show recurvature
with acceleration, the NHC track forecast more closely follows the
global models and is a blend of the previous forecast with the GFEX
consensus.

UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that Joyce is
being affected by moderate-to-strong southerly shear, which is
reflected by the satellite presentation. This shear is not
expected to abate during the next few days, and the storm will also
be moving into a gradually drier and subsident environment.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in
strength during the next 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter. Joyce is likely to lose its organized convection
and become a remnant low by day 3, if not sooner. The remnant low
should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or 5 and will likely be
absorbed by a larger weather system moving across the eastern
Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.9N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 19.3N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.3N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 21.0N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 21.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.0N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 22.4N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Joyce has changed
little in organization since the last advisory, with the low-level
center located on the southern edge of the convection due to
southerly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are clustered near
45 kt and have changed little during the past 6 h, and based on
this the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion is just a little to the right of the previous
motion, 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow
subtropical ridge, which is going to weaken and break as a
deep-layer trough amplifies over the central Atlantic during the
next few days. This evolution should cause Joyce to move slowly to
the west-northwest and northwest for a couple of days, followed by
an even slower motion toward the north. The track guidance is in
generally good agreement through 48 h, but after that time there is
some divergence due to a couple of the regional hurricane models
forecasting a stronger Joyce to recurve into the aforementioned
trough. As with the previous advisory, the track forecast calls for
a weaker Joyce to move slowly and not be fully picked up by the
trough, and the new forecast track has no significant changes from
the previous forecast.

Joyce is experiencing moderate southerly shear, and the global
models forecast this to continue for the next several days. In
addition, the storm will be moving into a gradually drier and
subsident environment. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar
to the previous forecast in calling for little change in strength
during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Joyce
will lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 3, if not
sooner. The remnant low should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or
5, with the remnants subsequently being absorbed by another system
approaching from the east.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 19.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce seems to be experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong
vertical wind shear. After maintaining a decent convective burst
overnight, southerly wind shear appears to be pulling the
thunderstorms to the north, partially exposing the low-level
circulation. A new burst of convection is now growing near the
center. Satellite-derived surface wind data measured a few wind
speeds greater than 40 kt in the northwest quadrant, and the
initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The storm continues to move at 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side
of a narrow and weakening subtropical ridge, and should continue
generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or
so. As a deep-layer trough over the northern Atlantic amplifies and
breaks the ridge, Joyce should slow and turn more poleward early
next week. The official forecast still shows the storm not
recurving to the north, as it is expected to be a shallow vortex at
that time, and instead drifts north-northwestward until the system
dissipates, similar to the previous prediction.

Atmospheric conditions are forecast to remain marginal around Joyce
in the coming days. The SHIPS model diagnostics show the deep-layer
vertical wind shear staying moderate-to-strong, likely forcing dry
air into Joyce's circulation. The latest intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and calls for little change in
intensity today, followed by steady weakening through early next
week. Joyce is still expected to become a remnant low by day 3,
however, models are now showing the system opening into a trough and
dissipating by day 4, and this is reflected in the official
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce is still feeling the effects of the southerly deep-layer wind
shear. Periodic bursts of convection have been forming just
north of the center and quickly moving poleward, leaving the
low-level circulation partially exposed all afternoon. Objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates have been coming down,
and the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this
advisory.

Dry mid-level humidities and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear
should induce gradual weakening over the next few days. Joyce is
expected to become a tropical depression on Monday, a
post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipated on Wednesday.
The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward slightly
due to the lower initial intensity.

The motion of the storm is now west-northwestward at 8 kt. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion, with a slower forward
speed is expected for the next day or so as Joyce is steered by a
narrow subtropical ridge to the north. On Monday, Joyce should
turn more north-northwestward to northward towards a weakens in the
ridge caused by a deepening trough over the northern Atlantic.
More of the model guidance is showing Joyce, or its remnants, being
picked up by the trough and the track guidance envelope has shifted
north and east. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted north
and east of the previous prediction and lies on the western side of
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 20.3N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 21.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.9N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 23.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 24.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024

Joyce's low-level center remains exposed on the southwest side of
bursting deep convection due to moderate-to-strong
south-southwesterly shear. The initial intensity remains 40 kt
based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates,
and a recent ASCAT-C pass. Deep-layer shear is expected to continue
affecting Joyce during the next couple of days, turning more out of
the southwest or west, while the storm also moves through a
relatively dry air mass. As a result, continued gradual weakening
is anticipated, with Joyce potentially becoming a tropical
depression by early Monday and a remnant low by early Tuesday. The
NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA
corrected-consensus and the GFS/ECMWF global models. The remnant
low is forecast to degenerate into a trough by Wednesday.

Joyce has turned northwestward (305 deg) at 8 kt. An amplifying
deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause
Joyce to turn northward and slow down during the next couple of
days. Depending on how much of Joyce is left in 2-3 days, it could
accelerate toward the north-northeast ahead of the trough. The NHC
track forecast is close to the GFEX consensus aid, and it's a little
faster than the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 20.9N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.4N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 23.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z 26.2N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an
upper-level trough over the central subtropical Atlantic, continues
to impact the tropical storm. Although deep convection has been
intermittently redeveloping near the center, the persistent shear
is displacing this shower and thunderstorm activity to the north
and northeast of the mostly exposed circulation center. The
advisory intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with
the most recent scatterometer data. This is also supported
by a blend of subjective and objective estimates.

Center fixes indicate that the motion remains about the same,
or at around 305/8 kt. An amplifying mid-level trough over the
east-central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northward during
the next day or so. If Joyce maintains some vertical depth in 2-3
days, it could accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough
around that time. The official track forecast is the same as the
previous NHC prediction and close to the model consensus.

Over the next couple of days, Joyce is expected to remain in an
environment of strong southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear
and an increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore,
weakening is anticipated and the system will probably degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area in 2-3 days. This is consistent
with the global model predictions. The official intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 21.3N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The center of Joyce is exposed on the southern side of a small
area of deep convection due to continued strong south-southwesterly
vertical wind shear. The most recent scatterometer data from 1230
UTC indicates at least 35 kt winds are within the circulation, and
given the known low bias of the instrument, 40 kt is chosen as the
initial intensity, closest to a blend of the TAFB T- and CI-numbers.

The storm has been moving more slowly this morning, estimated to be
northwestward at about 5 kt. Joyce should turn northward on Monday
due to a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic. The
only notable change to some of the guidance this cycle is that they
generally agree Joyce or its remnants will be less vertically deep
by mid-week. This evolution should result in less northward
acceleration as the circulation decays due to persistent shear and
dry air aloft. Thus, the new NHC forecast is a bit to the left and
slower based on the latest aids. The intensity guidance remains in
good agreement, and the only slight intensity change from the last
advisory is to show Joyce becoming a remnant low at 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 21.6N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.1N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 23.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0000Z 25.2N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

Joyce's center continues to be exposed to the southwest of its
convective mass as shear persists across the circulation. There's
generally been a slight reduction in the objective and subjective
estimates from the last advisory, so the initial wind speed is set
to 35 kt.

The storm is moving erratically northwestward at about 5 kt. Joyce
is still forecast to turn northward on Monday due to a deep-layer
trough over the north-central Atlantic, with only minor
disagreements on the exact longitude of recurvature. The new
forecast is a touch west of the last one, consistent with the
consensus guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward
with unabating shear and plentiful environmental dry air causing
gradual weakening, with no significant change from the last NHC
forecast. The remnant low might dissipate into a trough sooner
than shown here, similar to the latest ECMWF forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 22.2N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.6N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 23.3N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0600Z 26.2N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The exposed center of Joyce is completely devoid of convection, with
only a few intermittent bursts noted in satellite imagery during the
past several hours. If the system is unable to generate and sustain
organized convection soon, it will degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone on Monday. A partial scatterometer pass indicates that winds
over the eastern part of the circulation have diminished, and the
satellite intensity estimates have continued to fall this evening.
Based on these data and the degraded satellite presentation, Joyce
is downgraded to a 30-kt depression.

The storm is still moving northwestward (310/5 kt), but is forecast
to turn northward soon toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly left of the previous one based on current motion trends.
Joyce is surrounded by a dry air mass and is expected to face
continued southwesterly shear, making it unlikely for the system to
sustain organized deep convection going forward. Thus, the updated
NHC forecast shows Joyce degenerating to a post-tropical remnant low
by late Monday. However, this could occur even sooner if convection
does not regenerate overnight. The global models agree that Joyce
should open into a trough and dissipate by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 22.3N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 23.6N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1200Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z 25.7N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce's center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep
convection forming intermittently within the circulation. Joyce
continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear
due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective
AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. This may be a generous
estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system.

The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of
westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt.
It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by
the low-level flow. Therefore the official track forecast is
slower than the previous predictions. This is similar to the
motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a
very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or
two.

Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and
the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate
into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one. The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60
hours if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 22.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce continues to struggle to remain a tropical depression, having
a fully exposed low-level center displaced to the west of pulsing
deep convection. This displacement is a result of strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a central Atlantic
upper-level trough. With no recent surface observations or
scatterometer wind data available, 30 kt will remain the initial
intensity, reflecting the subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and
SAB.

The depression has meandered this morning, and the current motion
estimate is an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official track forecast
depicts a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates in 48
h, similar to the previous track forecast.

Continued shear coupled with persistent dry air should increasingly
inhibit organized convection, leading to Joyce degenerating into a
remnant low soon. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with total
dissipation in about 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 22.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 23.1N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0000Z 25.3N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts increasing bursts
of convection just east and especially just north of the
generally exposed low-level center of Joyce. This precludes
downgrading Joyce to a post-tropical remnant low with this
advisory, though that could happen as early as tonight if the burst
does not organize. The intensity of the depression was held at 30 kt
for this advisory based on continuity.

Joyce has moved very little over the past 12 to 24 hours, but the
current motion estimate was held at an uncertain 360/2 kt. The
official forecast track shows a slow northward motion until Joyce
fully dissipates within 48 h, with little change from the previous
track forecast.

Continued deep-layer shear and dry air encompassing Joyce
is forecast to inhibit additional convection and lead to the
cyclone becoming a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast remains
unchanged from the previous one, showing Joyce becoming a remnant
low in 12 h with dissipation in about 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Joyce Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...JOYCE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON JOYCE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 49.0W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES