Possible development in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with pre-Kirk right behind Joyce, but the former intensifying into a major much earlier. Could seal the deal in bringing the ATL to 100 ACE.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with pre-Kirk right behind Joyce, but the former intensifying into a major much earlier. Could seal the deal in bringing the ATL to 100 ACE.

Honestly a seasonal ACE total to date of 100 by that point seems conservative if some of these models are correct. Between this, the next Caribbean system, and whatever else Isaac and Joyce can squeak out, I wouldn’t be surprised to get an extra 40-50 ACE over the next 2 weeks if the models hold onto the idea of this becoming a long tracking major.

[cycloneye]

Yes. A good ASCAT hit and this is almost a TD but may be a little bit broad.

[cycloneye]

Wow, ICON at 943 mbs.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS again with the powerful cane and it begins developing in 24 hours. A SAM type here.

[cycloneye]

The ensembles are wow.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next
week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like this might be primed to become our big ACE producer of the year, a long-tracked major hurricane.

[Teban54]

Looks like this might be primed to become our big ACE producer of the year, a long-tracked major hurricane.

I'm not sure it can surpass Beryl's 35.1 ACE though. Regardless, this is the best chance 2024 can redeem itself and show that the MDR isn't as hostile as what everyone has been saying.

[sasha_B]

AL, 90, 2024092818, , BEST, 0, 146N, 300W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, SPAWNINVEST, al722024 to al902024,

[cycloneye]

Go here to continue the discussions about future Kirk