2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[xironman]

06z ICON has 4 TCs at +120 hrs.
*The current disturbance in the eastern MDR is an intensifying cat 1, a little further south than in 00z.
*The WCar disturbance as a 1004 mb TS in the GOM.
*Another wave behind the MDR disturbance becomes a TS. Many models have been hinting at a couple more MDR waves.
*A STS east of the US.

https://i.imgur.com/HQylxWD.png

2024 is a late bloomer

[kevin]

06z GFS +180 hrs.

[Travorum]

12z ICON continues to develop the wave behind the current MDR disturbance, keeps it pretty far south.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS has a weak TS off the texas coast at hour 138, what the heck is that from?

[Teban54]

Long range and will probably be gone the next run, but 0z GFS has a western MDR TS/Cat 1 entering the Caribbean, bombing out in NE Caribbean to a major, and recurving out. Basically a stronger Tammy/Tomas or a Matthew but much further east.

Also, earlier in the run it has another TC just behind 90L, which peaks in the upper 990s before getting sheared by 90L. While it may be convective feedback, ICON has shown this one also developing in recent runs (although ironically 0z ICON is much weaker with this one than earlier).

(Edit: Replaced loop with one that's more zoomed in.)

[Teban54]

This is not Kirk and TD13... This is "TD" 13 and the next wave.

Both Euro and CMC have the next wave as of 12z. They both keep it weak, but still, that would certainly be the most legendary October MDR season ever.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm starting to see some very broad model support for conditions being favorable in the western Caribbean towards the middle of October, probably as a result of that front predicted to shear the GOMEX disturbance lingering in the Caribbean. Way, way too far out to even speculate if it'll happen, but something to keep an eye on.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I'm starting to see some very broad model support for conditions being favorable in the western Caribbean towards the middle of October, probably as a result of that front predicted to shear the GOMEX disturbance lingering in the Caribbean. Way, way too far out to even speculate if it'll happen, but something to keep an eye on.

The gfs/euro AIFS has a storm develop around the 15th-18th timeframe.

[Kazmit]

GFS has a MH heading NW in the western Caribbean way out in the fantasy range. Probably just a phantom but we will need to start looking towards the western Caribbean as we head later into October as it is an obvious hotspot that time of year.

[N2FSU]

12z Canadian 120H



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[N2FSU]

12z Canadian 234H




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[Blinhart]

When should we expect a lemon for the wave coming off Africa right now?

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like we wil be getting another MDR storm as well as a storm in the Gulf taking aim at Florida with in the next 10 days. The GEM model has the Gulf storm stalling due to a high on the east coast the other models have the same high but not further east.

[Category5Kaiju]

ECMWF ensembles are still very optimistic about the current Gulf disturbance developing, as well as yet another MDR disturbance that exits the African Coast while Leslie is bombing out. That could put us at 14 NSs by mid-month, and there's no telling what kind of activity we will get late month and November (I'm willing to bet we will see several more storms, at least one of which becomes a significant system).

[Blown Away]

ECMWF ensembles are still very optimistic about the current Gulf disturbance developing, as well as yet another MDR disturbance that exits the African Coast while Leslie is bombing out. That could put us at 14 NSs by mid-month, and there's no telling what kind of activity we will get late month and November (I'm willing to bet we will see several more storms, at least one of which becomes a significant system).

00z EURO...

[toad strangler]

ECMWF ensembles are still very optimistic about the current Gulf disturbance developing, as well as yet another MDR disturbance that exits the African Coast while Leslie is bombing out. That could put us at 14 NSs by mid-month, and there's no telling what kind of activity we will get late month and November (I'm willing to bet we will see several more storms, at least one of which becomes a significant system).

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vmBZk5RT/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh72-168.gif [/url]
00z EURO...

Name storm count and ACE will still most likely come under pre-season forecasts but if this run verifies for the most part, the much ballyhooed BUST is going to be the BUST itself :lol

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like the UK is likely to see some pretty serious impacts.

[al78]

Looks like the UK is likely to see some pretty serious impacts.

The UK is seeing some serious impacts from the over-hyped and ridiculous click-bait media headlines that always pop up every time the remnants of a hurricane move across the UK.

https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-weath ... rk-britain

[al78]

ECMWF ensembles are still very optimistic about the current Gulf disturbance developing, as well as yet another MDR disturbance that exits the African Coast while Leslie is bombing out. That could put us at 14 NSs by mid-month, and there's no telling what kind of activity we will get late month and November (I'm willing to bet we will see several more storms, at least one of which becomes a significant system).

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vmBZk5RT/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh72-168.gif [/url]
00z EURO...

Name storm count and ACE will still most likely come under pre-season forecasts but if this run verifies for the most part, the much ballyhooed BUST is going to be the BUST itself :lol

We are almost up to the year-to-date climatological mean for ACE but I would put money on a hyper-active season not verifying. Nonetheless, although the seasonal forecasts were wrong, they weren't necessarily useless as impacts have been comparable to past hyper-active seasons even if the overall quantitative stats are well down, so it could be argued that seasonal forecasts this year may have helped businesses to make better decisions in advance if those businesses had acted on them.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the UK is likely to see some pretty serious impacts.

The UK is seeing some serious impacts from the over-hyped and ridiculous click-bait media headlines that always pop up every time the remnants of a hurricane move across the UK.

https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-weath ... rk-britain

Well that's the stupid news media, here in UK they are well know and laughed at. As for the storms were use to the wind and rain, we have a long winter storm season to go.