Poll: What will be the lowest pressure of Kirk?

[cycloneye]

Ok gang, Here is the poll about how strong will what develops from 90L (future Kirk) gets in terms of the lowest pressure. Apart from voting, you can make comments. The poll will close next tuesday at 2:52 PM EDT.

[Pasmorade]

To be quite bearish, I believe that future Kirk will at maximum, peak between 980 mbs and 970 mbs. This is due to the climatology so far this year that forecasted strong storms in the MDR are way weaker than forecast.

[Teban54]

To be quite bearish, I believe that future Kirk will at maximum, peak between 980 mbs and 970 mbs. This is due to the climatology so far this year that forecasted strong storms in the MDR are way weaker than forecast.

To me, the difference is that by the time pre-Gordon and pre-Joyce got to a 30/70 formation chance (or, more aggressively, when virtually all GEFS members were depicting genesis in 48 hours), the intensify forecasts from virtually all models had already become way more conservative. That's not the case with this system. I could have misremembered, though.

[CrazyC83]

Admittedly, we will not likely have any official observations barring an unfortunate ship encounter (or a dramatic forecast change), but I will say 924 mb. Strong cat 4 as it will likely be very large in spatial size.

[ElectricStorm]

If it lives up to the model hype I think this could challenge Beryl from a pressure standpoint. Would need to reach the high end of the guidance but 934mb seems doable especially if it tracks more west.

Wind wise probably won't get that close to Beryl but I could see a mid-strong Cat 4

[cheezyWXguy]

Admittedly, we will not likely have any official observations barring an unfortunate ship encounter (or a dramatic forecast change), but I will say 924 mb. Strong cat 4 as it will likely be very large in spatial size.

Same thoughts here. As I said in the main thread I get Sam vibes from this. Guessing upper 920s and another debate on whether this could’ve been a cat5 or not, but ultimately isn’t classified as such.

[CFLHurricane]

I’m predicting a high end Cat 2 / low end Cat 3 based on deterministic model guidance and the less favorable environment. I do think we’ll see another monster storm later in the season, but I don’t think Captain Kirk is it.

[hipshot]

Ok gang, Here is the poll about how strong will what develops from 90L (future Kirk) gets in terms of the lowest pressure. Apart from voting, you can make comments. The poll will close next Tuesday at 2:52 PM EDT.

I haven't been following since Helene, which one is this, the western Caribbean?

[MarioProtVI]

Admittedly, we will not likely have any official observations barring an unfortunate ship encounter (or a dramatic forecast change), but I will say 924 mb. Strong cat 4 as it will likely be very large in spatial size.

Unless it gets high enough on Dvorak to sustain T7.0 for a sustained period and not one single fix that was issued at an atypical time like a certain storm did.

[cycloneye]

Ok gang, Here is the poll about how strong will what develops from 90L (future Kirk) gets in terms of the lowest pressure. Apart from voting, you can make comments. The poll will close next Tuesday at 2:52 PM EDT.

I haven't been following since Helene, which one is this, the western Caribbean?

This is for now 90L west of the Cape Verde Islands.

[CrazyC83]

Admittedly, we will not likely have any official observations barring an unfortunate ship encounter (or a dramatic forecast change), but I will say 924 mb. Strong cat 4 as it will likely be very large in spatial size.

Unless it gets high enough on Dvorak to sustain T7.0 for a sustained period and not one single fix that was issued at an atypical time like a certain storm did.

I think this can beat Beryl for pressure, but winds would be harder, since it appears this will be a fairly large storm.

[Pasmorade]

Ok gang, Here is the poll about how strong will what develops from 90L (future Kirk) gets in terms of the lowest pressure. Apart from voting, you can make comments. The poll will close next tuesday at 2:52 PM EDT.

In their first advisory, NHC has this as a major in 5 days.