Texas Fall 2024

[CaptinCrunch]

CaptinCrunch i though we were going towards a strong la nina?

The La Nina is expected to be about -1.0 on the top end. It's getting harder to look at analogs on these things, our climate has changed and what was typical of these events has become the uncertain. Neither La Nina or El Nino present the type of characteristics those events from the 1960's through 2000 had. We are also in solar maximum, and I'm sure this also plays a part in the warmer winters of the last few years.

You need all your ducks in a row to get the type of Winters we would like to see here in the south. I've been living here in NTX my entire life 1968 to now, we just don't get the winters we had back in the mid 70s - mid 80s.

[Brent]

CaptinCrunch i though we were going towards a strong la nina?

The La Nina is expected to be about -1.0 on the top end. It's getting harder to look at analogs on these things, our climate has changed and what was typical of these events has become the uncertain. Neither La Nina or El Nino present the type of characteristics those events from the 1960's through 2000 had. We are also in solar maximum, and I'm sure this also plays a part in the warmer winters of the last few years.

You need all your ducks in a row to get the type of Winters we would like to see here in the south. I've been living here in NTX my entire life 1968 to now, we just don't get the winters we had back in the mid 70s - mid 80s.

Yeah needless to say after the last two winters even up here I'm planning more snowy trips this winter. I really didn't think it would come to that up here but here we are. I mean I know it'll snow at some point but like I'm just done getting my hopes up. Last year everyone up and down here was like it can't be any worse than the previous winter and then it was so yeah

[Ntxw]

CaptinCrunch i though we were going towards a strong la nina?

The La Nina is expected to be about -1.0 on the top end. It's getting harder to look at analogs on these things, our climate has changed and what was typical of these events has become the uncertain. Neither La Nina or El Nino present the type of characteristics those events from the 1960's through 2000 had. We are also in solar maximum, and I'm sure this also plays a part in the warmer winters of the last few years.

You need all your ducks in a row to get the type of Winters we would like to see here in the south. I've been living here in NTX my entire life 1968 to now, we just don't get the winters we had back in the mid 70s - mid 80s.

I didn't buy into the strong Nina forecast from way earlier in the year. We haven't had an official strong ONI Nina since 2010 really. It's so hard to cool the equatorial oceans enough to qualify, because everything is raised by the background warming. Hard to cool more when the base is starting high. -PDO is a factor though and may influence to 'feel' like a strong Nina at times via atmospheric response. But even that is due to an extreme marine heatwave going on east of Japan.

Contrary, because of this warming (with no scientific basis, anecdotal) perhaps there is a reason why the weak-mod Ninas have worked, the base state is higher, thus maybe they are behaving like 'weak' Ninos of the past? Our El Ninos haven't worked out since 09-10. Much of the cold, snow waves have come with weak-mod Ninas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

CaptinCrunch i though we were going towards a strong la nina?

The latest model consensus I saw was around -0.5.

Analog years: ‘05-06,‘13-14, ‘17-18

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1835113751298683234

Lon gpost on analogs for this winter. He did a fantastic job trying to include all factors into this.

[Stratton23]

Judah Cohan says due to a currently weakened PV, we could see a stretch of the PV occur during the beginning of the 2nd week of october, that could help to bring much “ cooler, colder” temperatures east of the rockies after the 2nd week of october

[Ntxw]

If you go by the long-long range models, I'm starting to feel that late December-January is going to be our period of cold weather. That's when the aggregate of models tend to agree on a more poleward Aleutian high. There will likely be several times that a very cold Canada may unload some cold weather on us this winter. If this -NAO persists then I could see a 2020-2021 type season (not the blast) but the general slower pattern movement.

Those mentioned years around circles 2005, 2017, 2022 etc all got pretty cold late December.

[Brent]

If you go by the long-long range models, I'm starting to feel that late December-January is going to be our period of cold weather. That's when the aggregate of models tend to agree on a more poleward Aleutian high. There will likely be several times that a very cold Canada may unload some cold weather on us this winter. If this -NAO persists then I could see a 2020-2021 type season (not the blast) but the general slower pattern movement.

Those mentioned years around circles 2005, 2017, 2022 etc all got pretty cold late December.

.

It's either been late December or Mid January the last two years here. February was unspeakably bad

[Quixotic]

Lot of great years on there. A lot of busts too. I’d take 13-14, 88-89 and 61-62.

[Iceresistance]

We just can't win! The Cockroach Death Ridge is always there to ruin our fall!


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SAGBp.png


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/SAGBL.png

[Stratton23]

Thibgs will eventually change, change is inevitable eventually, we just have to wait this out, I also think those bright red colors are so mis leading for october, definitely not summer heat thats for sure

[Iceresistance]

Thibgs will eventually change, change is inevitable eventually, we just have to wait this out, I also think those bright red colors are so mis leading for october, definitely not summer heat thats for sure

Up to 90 is VERY warm this time of the year

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance i guess it just depends on where you are, for me, 90 isnt unusual in october for se texas

[Brent]

Iceresistance i guess it just depends on where you are, for me, 90 isnt unusual in october for se texas

I mean it's happened before up here but at the same time we hit 20 degrees at Halloween last year and the winter was an embarrassment so I dunno what I want this month I just want a better winter than the last two

The lack of rain is a bigger problem right now

[Portastorm]

I just poked my head in under the tent to say something about this "autumn" weather ... it sucks.

Been about a month now since we have seen measurable rainfall here.

[Ntxw]

I know I sound like a broken record, but there is still yet any real cold air over the continent. Not seeing anything building anytime soon either. At best seasonal Pacific air and we still may be above normal. There are long range hints maybe something might change in the Pacific around or after Oct 20.

[Tireman4]

I know I sound like a broken record, but there is still yet any real cold air over the continent. Not seeing anything building anytime soon either. At best seasonal Pacific air and we still may be above normal. There are long range hints maybe something might change in the Pacific around or after Oct 20.

As most of us on here trust your long range forecast, I agree with you. I think this fall will be a late bloomer.

[rwfromkansas]

If I was still living in Kansas, I would be freaking out about 90 in October, but I'm resigning to the fact we don't have fall here. It's not 99-105, so I will take it.

It's why I have this fire dragon maple tree. It turns deep red in early December no matter what. And it's one of the best trees for ice storms.

[Stratton23]

Looking at ensembles in the long range, like Ntxw said around the 20th their are hints at changes in the pacific that could force a pattern change across NA, seeing signs of ensembles breaking down persistent troughing over Alaska, which had been aiding pacific air flooding the US, but it does appear around the 19th or so that the ensembles finally weaken that trough and try to start increasing heights over alaska , this is going to be a very slow process, but i think over time that trough will weaken and eventually move out

[Brent]

I just poked my head in under the tent to say something about this "autumn" weather ... it sucks.

Been about a month now since we have seen measurable rainfall here.

Tulsa didn't even report a half inch of rain in September and I see at least no rain for half of October yeah it's getting bad

Isn't this supposed to be our wet season because usually winter is dry

[Stratton23]

GEFS trending towards more cooler weather over the deep south and east in the extended period, heat takes over the western and north central US, the deep south may catch a break from the heat for a while